Summary of Key Points
This year's summer air travel season (July-August) will face the dual challenges of a "peak passenger flow" and extreme weather conditions. On one hand, it will experience the highest number of passengers of the entire year (147 million were transported in just two months last summer). On the other hand, due to El Niño and global warming, there will be an increase in severe convective weather phenomena such as typhoons, significantly raising the risk of turbulence. This article, based on historical data and real-life cases, reminds passengers and flight crew members to take safety precautions and calls on airlines to enforce safety regulations to avoid prioritizing service at the expense of safety.
Why is Turbulence More Severe This Summer? The Combined Effects of El Niño and Global Warming
This year's weather conditions are particularly unfavorable:
1. El Niño in Full Effect: International meteorological organizations have confirmed the formation of El Niño, with domestic forecasts indicating moderate to strong intensity. It has caused the subtropical high pressure over the western Pacific to be stronger and more southernly positioned, leading to widespread heavy rains in areas south of the Yangtze River (including East China, central and southern China, and South China), as well as rainy zones in the northeast and north China. These conditions create an environment conducive to severe convective weather, which is a major cause of turbulence.
2. More Intense and Frequent Typhoons: El Niño also results in more typhoons making landfall in China, with increased intensity and an earlier active season. Some typhoons may even move northward, further increasing the instability of the airspace.
3. Long-Term Impact of Global Warming: Research by the University of Reading shows that the duration of severe clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic has increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020, and the same trend is observed in East Asia. The reason is simple: as the Earth warms, the equator heats up faster than the poles, causing high-altitude winds to speed up and increasing wind shear (air turbulence), which is the source of clear-air turbulence.
How Dangerous is Turbulence?
Turbulence is a hidden danger to civil aviation safety:
- Global Data: According to ICAO statistics for 2024, nearly three-quarters of serious injuries in civil aviation worldwide are caused by turbulence.
- Recent Cases:
- In May, on a国泰 Airways flight, a food cart was thrown out of the aircraft and the ceiling fell, injuring 10 people (6 of them were flight crew members).
- In June, on a Ryanair flight, severe turbulence forced an emergency landing, resulting in injuries to 9 people (including a baby).
- Domestic Lessons:
- In 2019, during a flight over Beijing, the aircraft had to deviate from the storm path due to severe turbulence, injuring 7 flight crew members (with fractures in the eye sockets and vertebrae).
- In the past five years, there have been 88 incidents of turbulence-related injuries in China, with more than 153 people injured, among whom over 60% were flight crew members. This is because they often stand during their duties and cannot always fasten their seat belts.
Passenger Safety Tips: These Measures Can Save Lives
Don't assume turbulence won't affect you; following these simple precautions can be crucial:
1. Fasten Your Seat Belt at All Times: Even during stable flight, don't unfasten your seat belt. Winds can move faster than you expect, and a seat belt can save your life in an emergency.
2. Use Baby Seat Belts for Children: Don't rely on your ability to hold your child; turbulence can cause adults to be thrown around. Ask the flight crew for a baby seat belt and secure your child properly.
3. Don't Pack Heavy Luggage on Your Head: Carry heavy luggage that requires extra effort to secure. Unsecured luggage can fall down during turbulence and be dangerous.
Safety Reminders for Flight Crew Members: Don't Rely on Luck
Flight crew members are at high risk during turbulence. Remember these two important points:
1. Sit Down and Fasten Your Seat Belt Whenever Possible: Except during takeoff, landing, and turbulence, always sit down and fasten your seat belt. If you're not providing emergency services, return to the cabin and secure yourself.
2. Protect Yourself First During Severe Turbulence: When turbulence is intense (objects fly around and people are thrown off their feet), ignore the call buttons and focus on securing yourself first. If you can't stand steady, how can you help passengers?
Airlines' Responsibility: Safety Must Be Integrated into Procedures
Merely saying "safety is important" is not enough; clear rules are necessary:
- The Lessons of Document 96: After several incidents of turbulence-related injuries in 2019, authorities issued Document 96, which prohibits flight crew members from performing non-safety-related tasks (such as serving meals or collecting trash) 20 minutes after takeoff and 30 minutes before landing. Although some passengers complained about reduced services, the injury rate during these critical phases has indeed decreased.
- Implement These Rules This Year: Airlines must not compromise on safety for the sake of a better "service experience." For example, flight crew members should not be busy with tasks 10 minutes before landing. Safety always takes precedence over service. Integrating safety regulations into flight procedures is the true meaning of staying true to one's original mission.
In conclusion, during the summer travel season, don't just focus on punctuality; safety comes first. Passengers should fasten their seat belts, crew members should follow the rules, and airlines should prioritize safety. Only together can we ensure a safe and smooth journey.
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