Summary of Key Points
Effective July 1, 2026, new national standards for electric vehicle batteries have been officially implemented. The core requirement has been raised from "alerting users 5 minutes before a fire starts" to "preventing the battery from catching fire or exploding within 2 hours after thermal runaway." New tests have also been added, including a bottom impact test and a safety test after rapid charging cycles. This represents not only an improvement in safety standards but also a redistribution of industry interests: leading battery manufacturers and automakers are consolidating their advantages through technological advancements, mid-tier companies are struggling with balancing costs and compliance, while smaller firms face the risk of being phased out. Automakers will see increased costs, which may affect sales; consumers, during the transition period, will have to choose between purchasing discounted used cars or paying a premium for new models. However, the new regulations do not guarantee absolute safety, as there are still practical challenges that need to be addressed.
I. How Strict Are the New Standards?
The old standard simply warned users 5 minutes before a fire started; the new standard requires that the battery cannot catch fire or explode within 2 hours after thermal runaway—this essentially extends the "escape time" from the length of a cup of coffee to the duration of a movie. Two additional mandatory tests have been added:
- Bottom Impact Test: This simulates scenarios where the chassis is hit by stones or road edges, ensuring that the battery pack remains safe even after the impact.
- Test After Rapid Charging Cycles: After 300 rapid charging cycles (approximately equivalent to 3 years of use), the battery must not catch fire in case of a short circuit—this addresses the issue of new batteries becoming unsafe after a few years of use.
In simple terms, the new standard is not about preventing the battery from failing altogether but about ensuring that it does not explode, giving users enough time to escape safely.
II. The "Elimination Race" for Battery Manufacturers
The new regulations have categorized battery manufacturers into three groups:
- Leading Companies (such as CATL and BYD): These companies have already invested in technology, allowing them to spread the additional costs over their products, thus maintaining their competitive edge. For example, CATL claims that all its products meet the standards, and BYD has demonstrated that its blade batteries can withstand 10 times the impact force while still maintaining safety, enabling it to charge higher prices.
- Mid-Tier Companies: Their costs have increased by 15%-20%, especially for lower-end models. While this represents a significant challenge (a 4,000 yuan increase for an 80,000 yuan car equals a 5% increase in cost), there are still options, such as using lithium iron phosphate (more stable than lithium nickel cobalt manganese) or sodium-ion batteries (cheaper), which could result in lower absolute cost increases compared to high-end models.
- Smaller Companies: They either need to switch to the energy storage or two-wheeler battery market (to avoid the passenger vehicle sector) or contract with leading manufacturers; otherwise, they may be forced out of the industry. However, this market consolidation will not happen overnight, and smaller firms still have some time to adapt.
III. The Cost Burden on Automakers
The impact on automakers is substantial:
- The cost per vehicle has increased by 4,000-6,500 yuan (for example, adding a "one-button power-off" feature costs 800-1,500 yuan, and reinforcing the battery pack costs 3,000-5,000 yuan).
Automakers have two main options:
- Hardline Approach: Some companies, like極氪 (Jikr), choose not to raise prices, possibly by squeezing their supply chains or sacrificing profits in the short term.
- Transparent Approach: Others, like零跑 (ZeroRun), admit to increased costs and may subsequently increase prices.
- Exporting Automakers Face Greater Challenges: Companies exporting to the EU must also deal with anti-subsidy tariffs and additional costs due to the new regulations, further squeezing their margins.
In terms of sales, Morgan Stanley predicts a 20% decline for the year, but this is due to a combination of factors such as overall economic weakness, diminishing subsidies, and price wars, with the new standards being just one of these factors.
IV. What Should Consumers Do?
Here are the answers to three common questions from consumers:
1. Can I buy a car that meets the old standards? Yes! Approved older vehicles have a one-year transition period until July 2027, and there are significant discounts available during this time. These cars are suitable for those who need a vehicle for daily use, plan to replace it in two to three years, or drive in less demanding conditions. The downside is that their safety standards are lower, which may affect their resale value.
2. Are new standard cars worth the extra cost? They offer better safety but are more expensive. They are a good option for long-term use (more than 5 years), frequent highway driving, or those who rely on rapid charging.
3. How can I mitigate risks? Consider buying a traditional gasoline car (not plug-in hybrid or range-extended electric vehicles). Although their 12V lead-acid batteries are older, they do not explode.
It's important to note that the new standard does not mean "no explosions ever." Passing laboratory tests does not guarantee that the vehicle will not be at risk in real-world scenarios, such as high-speed collisions or severe impacts; it simply means that there will be more time for evacuation in case of an emergency.
V. The New Regulations Are Not a Perfect Solution
Despite the improvements, the new standards have their limitations:
- Testing Scenarios Do Not Reflect Real World Conditions: The national tests focus on single faults (e.g., a single battery cell short circuit), but real-world collisions may involve multiple damaged cells, making the situation more complex.
- Risks of "Test-Driven Design": Some companies may over-design their products just to pass the tests, leading to unnecessary waste of resources.
- Unclear Responsibilities During the Transition Period: If an older vehicle catches fire during the transition period, it is unclear who will be held responsible.
- Solid-State Batteries May Face Barriers: Sulfide solid-state batteries (the mainstream technology) are prone to catching fire and may not meet the new standards, potentially hindering technological progress.
In Conclusion
The new national standards represent a step forward, but they are not a panacea. For consumers, it's crucial not to be misled by claims of "100% safety" or panicked by warnings that older cars cannot be purchased. The best choice is the one that suits your needs and budget. After all, both safety and cost considerations are vital.