虎嗅

"An Overview of June: How Many Cards Does the West Still Have? The US-Iran Negotiations Were a Loss, Musk's Stock Listing Created Wealth, and the G7 Talks Are Getting Worse by the Day..."

原文:一篇文章看6月:西方还剩多少牌?美伊和谈赔钱,马斯克上市造富,G7越谈越糟心

Summary of Key Points

This article discusses the global landscape as of June 2026, examining three aspects: domestic power struggles in the United States, international geopolitics, and socio-cultural phenomena. It highlights the current state of confusion and change on a global scale: Trump has consolidated his power by dismissing civil servants and aligning with AI companies; the complexities surrounding the US-Iran agreement have exposed divisions within the Western camp; the World Cup and SpaceX's ambitious narratives conceal commercial and political calculations; and actions such as the UK's ban on social media and the completion of the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona reflect different ways people are coping in an uncertain era. The overall message is that the myths of old globalization are crumbling, and humanity must seek new directions.

I. Trump's Power Game: Dismissing Civil Servants, Allying with AI to Control the State

Trump's organization of a UFC boxing event on his 80th birthday was not just for show; it was an attempt to expand his power. What he hates most is the "old-school civil service group" hidden within the government—people who rely on their positions rather than elections, are highly skilled, but do not follow the president's orders and often slow down or even undermine his policies.

How did he address this? He issued an executive order to reclassify 8,000 senior civil servants into categories that make them more susceptible to dismissal, with the potential to expand this to 50,000 people. Who will replace them? AI companies! For example, Palantir's military contracts increased from $480 million in 2025 to $1 billion, helping the Department of Homeland Security process immigration reports.

However, Trump wants absolute control: AI companies must not challenge his authority. Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, a large language model, lost a $200 million contract after refusing to remove certain security measures for the military. When Trump announced a new model, he labeled it a threat to national security and forced Anthropic to shut down its services. This sends a clear message: Tech companies must obey him.

Summary: Trump is not just replacing civil servants with his own people; he is transferring some government functions to compliant tech firms, thereby firmly holding onto control of the state machinery.

II. The US-Iran Agreement and the G7: A Crisis of Western Disunity

The most significant international news in June was the US-Iran agreement. Trump signed it unexpectedly at the Palace of Versailles (originally planned for the vice president to sign in Switzerland), but the next day, Israel attacked Lebanon, and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, rendering the agreement ineffective. This exposed America's dilemma: it wants to withdraw from the Middle East but is tied down by Israel, which even dares to defy its orders.

The G7 summit further highlighted Western fragmentation: Europe wanted to take the lead, inviting countries like Ukraine and India, but Russia did not attend, China was not invited (out of fear of overshadowing it), and South Africa was excluded by Trump. Europe is unable to make decisions on key issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-Iran tensions, and Sino-US trade frictions: Germany wants to control the RMB exchange rate but lacks the power to do so; the UK is in turmoil (police mishandling of a racial discrimination case led to a death, and the prime minister resigned); only Italy, having shifted to the right earlier, remains relatively stable.

Summary: The West is no longer united as one. The US's retreat is incomplete, Europe cannot stand on its own, and the G7 has become a gathering where members merely confirm their mutual disunity.

III. The World Cup and SpaceX: Grand Dreams Underlying Practical Calculations

The World Cup is supposed to be a source of joy for all humanity—small countries like Cape Verde get a chance to shine, and stories of players like Messi and Mbappé inspire hope that hard work pays off. But the reality is harsh: tickets for the finals cost hundreds of thousands of yuan, and ordinary fans don't even have access to bid for them; Iranian teams are restricted from staying in the US due to travel bans, and fans from countries with travel restrictions cannot obtain visas. FIFA claims "sports know no borders," but host nations and commercial interests have the final say.

SpaceX's listing has made Elon Musk a billionaire, promoting the grand vision of human exploration of Mars. However, its core businesses (rockets, satellite networks) rely on NASA and the US military, making it essentially a company tied to national power. Musk's "god-making" campaign is a reflection of how people project the "American Dream" onto him in a time of political absurdity—so long as he exists, there is belief that "America still has a light of civilization."

Summary: The beauty of the World Cup and SpaceX's ambitions is overshadowed by commercial interests, political constraints, and power dynamics.

IV. Choices in an Uncertain Era: From Social Media Bans to the Sagrada Familia

The UK's ban on social media for those under 16 reflects its helplessness in dealing with digital chaos: Europe lacks its own global social platform and is essentially a "digital colony" of the US. Faced with polarization and extreme ideologies, it resorts to bans.

The completion of the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona is a comforting example of perseverance: construction took over 100 years, despite the death of Antoni Gaudí and the destruction of plans during civil war, thanks to the contributions and dedication of multiple generations. This reminds us that in an era of rapid change (AI updates every six months, stock prices fluctuating daily), long-term commitment remains valuable.

This is also relevant to China's new Three Gorges water transportation project (part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a construction period of 112 months) and the college entrance examination: life is not determined by a single exam. In times of uncertainty, the best approach is to build a strong foundation and prepare for opportunities.

Summary: In the face of uncertainty, some choose to "block" (with social media bans), while others opt for a more cautious approach (like the Sagrada Familia project or long-term planning). The latter may help us find our way forward.

Conclusion

The world in June tells us that the myths of old globalization are fading, but humanity continues to search for a future. Whether it's Trump's reorganization of power, Europe's struggles, or ordinary people seeking solace through sports, the stars, or tradition, these are all ways to cope with change. What we need to do is to move beyond emotions and embrace this multipolar world with a rational and optimistic attitude.