Summary of the Key Points
The main message of this article is that humans tend to be inherently short-sighted (preferring simple, direct A→B logic over complex, long-chain thinking), and this mindset is being rapidly replaced by AI. To avoid being left behind, we need to develop a “second-level” form of thinking that allows us to consider things more deeply, or we must work tirelessly over the long term to outperform others; otherwise, we might end up relying on government benefits. The article uses examples from TikTok usage, financial investments, college entrance exam expectations, and the prices of luxury foods like king crabs in school cafeterias to illustrate the dangers of short-sightedness and provide practical ways to counter it.
1. What Does Short-Sighted Thinking Look Like?
Many of us enjoy using TikTok because it simplifies complex issues into a “if A, then B” format—such as “if you want to make money, start a street stall” or “to lose weight, eat these three foods.” This gives us a sense of accomplishment, but in the real world, starting a street stall requires considering factors like location, competition, and costs; losing weight involves combining diet, exercise, and lifestyle habits—nothing is that simple.
Some people also stick rigidly to fixed beliefs, such as thinking that a strong team must always beat a weaker one or that stocks will only rise or fall. They can’t accept the possibility of the market fluctuating by 2% either way; when prices drop, they criticize those who predicted an increase, and when they rise, they criticize those who predicted a decrease. Essentially, they refuse to acknowledge the uncertainty of the world and only seek “definite answers.”
2. The Short-Sighted Traps in Finance: Fearing Risk at the Expense of Opportunities
Many financial institutions adopt short-sighted approaches, such as refusing to invest in credit bonds due to perceived risks. However, no asset is completely risk-free; even government bonds can default. If everyone avoids credit bonds, their prices will drop, creating an opportunity to buy them at a lower price and earn a 4% return.
Focusing only on whether there is risk without considering the probability of that risk occurring, potential returns, or how to hedge it is like throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The proper approach in finance is to “cover risks with returns”—to carefully assess the potential losses and potential gains before making investments. This is about managing uncertainty, not simply avoiding it.
3. The Ultimate Trick to Counter Short-Sightedness: Developing a Second-Level Thinking
How can we overcome short-sightedness? The article suggests practicing “second-level thinking,” which involves exploring the underlying reasons for events and predicting their consequences. For example, if someone says that having fewer children makes the college entrance exam easier, you should ask further questions:
- Is the decrease in the total number of children nationwide or just in your city? If there are fewer children in Shanghai, might immigrants from other places compete for university spots?
- Even if the exam becomes easier, will the value of a degree decline? What used to be enough for a 211 university might now require a 985 degree?
- With the widespread use of AI, perhaps only the top 1% of people will truly benefit from education. Spending 5 million on a child’s education with an expected monthly salary of 8,000 after 50 years might not be worth it.
AI can handle simple A→B processes, but humans need to think in multiple layers to avoid being replaced by it.
4. A Simple Yet Effective Strategy: Persistence and Hard Work
If you can’t develop second-level thinking, another approach is to work diligently over the long term. For example, by going to bed early and exercising regularly, you might outperform others. If 10,000 people start a similar endeavor today, only 100 may remain after a year, and perhaps just you will be left standing after five years. Those who persevere can reap the benefits of their efforts—especially if the industry is on the rise (like in the case of video content creation). Without vision or diligence, you might end up relying on government assistance.
5. Don’t Blame the Wealthy for Showoffing Their Wealth; They’re Helping Everyone
Some people criticize schools for selling expensive foods like king crabs, wondering how students can afford them. However, the reality is that the money spent by wealthy individuals subsidizes free breakfasts for poorer students, allowing businesses to operate and provide affordable meals for everyone else.
Similarly, in the gaming industry, those who spend money on premium items or buy new graphics cards enable manufacturers to develop cheaper mass-produced versions. If we prevent the wealthy from showing off their wealth, the cycle of wealth creation is disrupted—no one will invest in things that provide emotional value, and both the welfare of the poor and the affordability of products for everyone else will suffer.
In summary, this article reminds us to stop indulging in the immediate gratification of short-sightedness. Either develop a deeper level of thinking or maintain persistent hard work; otherwise, as AI becomes more advanced, we may be replaced by it. After all, AI excels at handling simple, short-chain processes, while humans can succeed through complex, long-chain thinking and sustained effort.