Summary of Key Points
This news article focuses on the impact of the Middle East conflicts on the aviation market, covering five main aspects:
1. Cathay Pacific has resumed its flights between Hong Kong and Dubai and Riyadh in the Middle East since September (for the first time since the conflict began in March).
2. Domestic Chinese airlines have been grounded in the Middle East for over three months, with no clear schedule for resuming services.
3. Middle Eastern airlines (such as Emirates and Qatar Airways) have significantly increased their flight capacity and have specifically expanded their services to China.
4. The previous disruption of Middle East air routes led to skyrocketing prices for direct flights between China and Europe; although prices have dropped, they are still higher than before the conflict.
5. Domestic Chinese airlines have shifted their focus to European routes due to the suspension of Middle East flights, resulting in increased competition and thinner profits.
Detailed Analysis
1. Cathay Pacific's Resumption of Middle East Flights: Why They Took the Lead?
Cathay Pacific’s resumption of flights between Hong Kong and Dubai/Riyadh marks the first time a Hong Kong-based airline has restarted services to the Middle East since the conflict in March. Previously, only local Middle Eastern airlines (such as Emirates) had resumed flights. The reason Cathay Pacific took the lead could be twofold: firstly, Hong Kong, as an international aviation hub, has a persistent demand for Middle East routes—either for business or tourism, or as a transit point to Europe/Africa. Secondly, Cathay Pacific may have assessed the current security situation in the Middle East and deemed it manageable. This move also signals a gradual recovery of the Middle East aviation market.
2. Why Have Domestic Chinese Airlines Delayed Resuming Flights to the Middle East?
Airlines such as China Air, Eastern Air, and Southern Air briefly resumed flights to the Middle East at the beginning of March to pick up stranded passengers but then ceased operations again, more than three months ago. As of now, there are no tickets available for flights to the Middle East through July and August, and although some apps show ticket sales in September, these may still be canceled. The main reason is safety concerns: although the conflicts have eased, the opening of airspace and the stability of the situation remain uncertain. Additionally, there is a balance between costs and demand; flights to the Middle East are long and costly, and low passenger occupancy rates can lead to losses. Therefore, domestic airlines are still waiting to see how things develop before setting a resumption date.
3. Middle Eastern Airlines’ Rapid Expansion into the Chinese Market
Middle Eastern airlines have quickly resumed their services: Emirates has restored 91% of its flight capacity (with plans to reach 100% by mid-October), and Qatar Airways operates 52 flights per week to seven cities in the Greater China region, including two daily flights to Shanghai. Interestingly, they have specifically increased their services to China—even during off-peak seasons when flights to European secondary and tertiary cities are reduced. The reason is that China is a key market for them: many Chinese travelers go to the Middle East for tourism or business, or use it as a transit point to Europe or Africa. Middle Eastern airlines rely on these routes for revenue and are eager to capture this market.
4. Flight Prices Between China and Europe: From Exorbitant to Below 10,000 RMB, but Still Not Affordable
When the Middle East air routes were disrupted in March, passengers with connections to Europe had no choice but to buy direct flights, leading to a surge in demand and skyrocketing prices. For example, a Economy Class ticket from Beijing to Paris on Air France cost as much as 25,000 RMB, while a Business Class ticket on China Air cost nearly 80,000 RMB (normally around 5,000 RMB for direct flights between Shanghai and Paris). Prices have now dropped below 10,000 RMB, but they are still higher than before the conflict. This is due to two factors: the resumption of Middle East transit routes, which has diverted some demand from direct flights; and the increased supply of flights to Europe by domestic airlines. However, high oil prices prevent prices from returning to their pre-conflict levels.
5. Domestic Chinese Airlines Focusing on European Routes
With the suspension of Middle East flights, domestic airlines have turned to European routes to increase competition. Eastern Air has increased its European flight schedules by 24% (with up to 410 flights per week during peak seasons), while Southern Air has added new routes such as Beijing-Helsinki and Guangzhou-London/Madrid. The number of flights from China to Europe has now exceeded those of 2019 (an increase of 118%). However, the increased competition and high oil prices have reduced airlines’ profits. An industry insider commented, “Prices are currently supported by oil prices, but the competition in European routes is so fierce that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to make a profit.”
Conclusion
The impact of the Middle East conflicts on the aviation market continues: Cathay Pacific has taken the lead in resuming services, while domestic airlines remain cautious. Middle Eastern airlines are aggressively expanding into the Chinese market, and domestic airlines are focusing on European routes. In the future, as the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, domestic airlines may gradually resume flights to the Middle East, but the price competition in European routes is likely to persist for some time.