虎嗅

Wu Ting in conversation with Ma Jian from Jingtai Technology: AI may break the curse of pharmaceutical development

原文:吴婷对话晶泰科技马健:AI破解制药魔咒

Core Content Summary

Jingtai Technology was founded by three postdoctoral fellows in quantum physics from MIT, who crossed disciplines to revolutionize the new drug development process using AI and automated laboratories. They have broken the “10-year, $1 billion investment with less than 10% success rate” curse that has plagued the industry for decades. By adopting a “barbell approach” (standardized software services combined with high-difficulty drug research collaborations), Jingtai aims to achieve profitability by 2025. In the context of the Sino-US technological divide, they are exporting their technology to leading American pharmaceutical companies and expanding their capabilities into areas such as new energy materials, becoming a prime example of China’s breakthrough in hard technology.

I. Disruptive Innovation: Physicists Prove Their Competence

The three postdoctoral fellows, specializing in quantum physics, faced skepticism from the traditional pharmaceutical industry when they started working in drug development. However, they proved their worth through an international blind test in 2016. They were the first to submit their predictions for the crystal structures of three Pfizer drugs and accurately predicted them, impressing this global giant. This success not only opened doors for them with top pharmaceutical companies but also turned criticism into cooperation opportunities, as the pharmaceutical industry values the ability to solve problems, not just the background of the innovators.

II. AI + Automated Laboratories: Reducing Trial and Error by 90%

The main challenge in new drug development is the high cost of trial and error (most experiments fail). Jingtai’s solution is to build automated laboratories where robots perform experiments and record all failed “negative samples” (molecular combinations that do not work) to train AI models. For example, while scientists used to rely on trial and error, potentially trying 1,000 times to find a valid molecule, AI can learn from these negative samples, eliminating 900 potential errors in just 100 attempts. This approach is like providing an “avoidance guide” for the AI, reducing costs and bringing us closer to the concept of a “L5-level unmanned laboratory” (completely independent of human intervention). Ma Jian calls this approach an “AI speed bump” – no matter how fast AI progresses in the digital world, it must be grounded in real experimental data.

III. The Barbell Approach: Generating Stable Revenue While Exploring High-Value Opportunities

Jingtai’s business model is cleverly structured around two pillars:

  • Selling Tools: They provide standardized AI platform software that pharmaceutical companies use to accelerate their research and development, generating steady service fees.
  • Exploring High-Value Opportunities: They collaborate with companies on challenging projects (such as treating Alzheimer’s disease or targeting difficult-to-treat cancers), earning substantial profits based on milestones achieved. This approach avoids low-value competition and focuses on high-value areas, allowing Jingtai to achieve profitability for the first time in 2025 despite significant research investments.

IV. Reverse Technology Transfer in a Divided China-US Environment

Amidst the Sino-US technological divide, many industries are at a standstill, but Jingtai has managed to attract American pharmaceutical companies. This is because China has advantages in integrating AI and automation technologies, such as robotics and data processing capabilities that are beyond what American companies can develop on their own. Jingtai’s Shanghai office receives visits from top American pharmaceutical companies weekly, demonstrating the strength of China’s hard technology.

V. From Pharmaceuticals to Materials: A Future Where Humans May Live to 150?

Jingtai’s foundational technologies (atomic structure prediction, AI, and automation) can be applied beyond drug development to materials science, such as new energy photovoltaic materials and electronic adhesives. The core principle in these fields is that “structure determines properties”: the molecular structure of drugs affects their efficacy, and the atomic structure of materials determines their performance. Ma Jian optimistically believes that with further technological advancements, living to 150 years old could become a reality. However, he also emphasizes that the biggest risk for companies is losing focus on research and development. Only by continuous investment can they keep up with the times and turn science fiction into reality.

In Summary

Jingtai Technology has redefined new drug development using a combination of physical principles, AI, and automation. They have not only broken industry barriers but also enabled China’s hard technology to make a significant impact on the global stage. This success is the result of strategic choices and solid technical foundations, demonstrating that breakthroughs are achievable with determination and vision.