Summary of Key Points
This edition of the Copa América-México-Canada World Cup marked the first time that large AI models were deeply involved in the event. These models not only attempted to predict the outcomes of matches (with some impressive successes and others highlighting their limitations) but also utilized the World Cup’s massive audience to promote themselves, assist in team analysis, and aid in referee decisions. They demonstrated how AI can enhance the fairness and viewing experience of games. However, the true essence of the World Cup remains the hard work and unexpected moments of human players; humans are, after all, the true stars of the field.
I. Large Models Predicting Match Outcomes: Are They “Prophets” or “Foolish Predictors”?
Before and during the World Cup, various AI models aimed to outperform the famous “Octopus Paul Pro Max.” The results were mixed:
- A Humbling Failure: Kimi released a 200-page prediction report suggesting that Germany might shock everyone by winning the championship. Despite deploying 300 “assistants” to analyze ten different factors (such as tactics and injuries), Germany failed to even qualify from the group stage and was eliminated by Paraguay in a penalty shootout, proving AI’s limitations.
- Some Successes: By the end of the group stage, Tencent’s Hunyuan and China Mobile’s Jiu Tian correctly predicted 49 out of 72 matches. Their predictions were almost consistent in matches with clear favorites (such as Brazil vs. weaker teams). However, they struggled with predicting draws. For example, all 12 AI models predicted a Uruguay victory against Cape Verde, but the actual score was 2-2.
- Why Are They Inaccurate?: Football is not just about data; factors like the determination of smaller teams, players’ performance on the day, and even luck (like a lucky save) are beyond AI’s grasp. For instance, Cape Verde (with a population of 540,000) managed a draw against both Spain and Uruguay, and 10% of the audience guessed correctly. Humans rely on intuition and expectations for “dark horses.”
II. Large Models in World Cup Marketing: Using Traffic to Demonstrate Their Capabilities
The World Cup attracts massive global attention, traditionally dominated by beverage and sports shoe brands. Now, AI companies are also trying to gain a foothold:
- OpenAI’s Strategy: They aim to transform ChatGPT from a work tool into a daily companion for users, allowing fans to create match posters and predict their favorite teams’ performances.
- Google’s Approach: Similar to OpenAI, they showcase their technology by integrating it into products (e.g., featuring their brand on Argentine team uniforms) while also demonstrating how AI can analyze player movements to provide deeper insights into the games.
- The Goal: The aim is not just to make people remember the brands but to show that AI can be useful in everyday life, such as serving as a helpful tool for watching matches.
III. Large Models Really Are “Working”: More Than Just Predictions
AI is making a real impact at the World Cup:
- Helping Smaller Teams: Previously, only wealthy teams like Brazil and Germany could afford detailed data analysis from FIFA. Now, AI models can quickly analyze this information, helping smaller teams understand their opponents’ weaknesses and players’ habits.
- Assisting Referees: In one of the first VAR (Video Assistant Referee) decisions, AI helped referees make more accurate calls on offside and handballs, making the games fairer.
- Improving the Viewing Experience: Platforms like Migu use AI to generate real-time tactical diagrams, making it easier for non-experts to understand the game and increase engagement.
IV. The Limitations of AI: Why Can’t It Handle Football’s Unpredictability?
The World Cup has exposed the limitations of AI:
- Lack of Human Emotions: AI cannot capture the emotional aspects of football, such as a 40-year-old goalkeeper’s determination or the support of a mother who travels across the world to cheer for her son.
- Difficulty with Uncertainty: Unpredictable events in football are real; for example, a team’s comeback after a missed penalty or a player’s last World Cup performance. These moments are beyond AI’s predictive capabilities.
- Need for Practical Training: AI models learn from their mistakes (like inaccurate draw predictions) and will gradually improve, but they can never be 100% accurate because football’s charm lies in its unpredictability.
V. The Ultimate Question: With AI, Are Humans Still the Stars of the World Cup?
The answer is clear: They are! AI can assist with analysis, refereeing, and providing insights for fans, but the truly memorable moments belong to humans. The emotional struggles of players, their last performances, and the dedication of 40-year-old goalkeepers are what make the World Cup so special.
As the saying goes, “Even if AI considers all possible outcomes, it cannot predict every moment of the World Cup—especially those shining and regrettable ones.” AI has changed how we experience the World Cup, but it cannot change the essence of football: it’s a human sport, a stage for emotions and determination.
The World Cup is just a reflection of this principle; AI is a tool, but the true protagonists are still us.