Summary of Key Points
Recently, pork prices have been particularly affordable (in a Shanghai supermarket, 500g of front leg meat costs only 6.7 yuan after discounts, the same price as tomatoes and eggs). This is due to "dual transformations" in the pig farming industry: on one hand, African swine fever has forced an upgrade in farming techniques and increased scaling, leading to ample supply and lower prices; on the other hand, consumers feel that pork no longer tastes as good as it did when they were younger, prompting the rise of specialty breeds like "black pigs," shifting the industry from focusing on maintaining affordable prices to differentiated competition. Additionally, the pig cycle has changed—the downturn is lasting longer, and future price fluctuations are likely to be less extreme.
Detailed Explanation
1. Why is pork so cheap?
After the outbreak of African swine fever, the pig farming industry has undergone a complete transformation:
- Pigsties have become "luxury homes": Pigs now live in air-conditioned environments with purified air and drink filtered water. Muyuan, a leading company, has installed over 3.3 million sets of smart equipment in its more than 1,000 pig farms—smart feeders dispense food precisely according to the pigs' weight and age (down to the gram), and robotic tracks perform 17 types of "health checks" (such as measuring body temperature and checking for diarrhea).
- Production efficiency has soared: The number of piglets born per sow per year has increased from 17 in 2015 to 24.5 in 2025 (with some top companies achieving over 30); pigs require only 2.6 kilograms of feed to gain 1 kilogram of weight (compared to 3 kilograms previously), and the mortality rate has decreased by more than 5%.
- Scaling is dominant: The number of small-scale farmers has decreased, and by 2025, the proportion of large-scale farms will reach 73%, reducing costs and increasing supply, which in turn lowers prices.
2. The changed pig cycle
The traditional pig price cycle (rising due to supply shortage and falling due to excess supply) no longer applies:
- Prices have hit a decade-low: In April 2026, pork prices dropped to 9 yuan per kilogram because breeding sows are producing more offspring with higher survival rates, making it difficult to reduce production capacity.
- Cycle characteristics have changed: Experts predict that the cycle will be longer and less responsive to price fluctuations. Future prices are likely to fluctuate around cost levels, eliminating the previous extreme profit margins.
- Leading companies are still profitable: Companies like Muyuan can operate at costs as low as 6 yuan per kilogram and still make a profit; smaller farmers face greater pressure as the industry competes on cost.
3. Why does pork not taste as good?
Consumers' complaints that pork tastes less good are not just an illusion:
- Breeding focuses on yield: Mainstream pig breeds prioritize fast growth and high meat content, neglecting flavor.
- Pigs are slaughtered too early: Traditional local pigs took 10 months to grow, but modern breeds are slaughtered in 5–6 months, leaving insufficient time for flavor compounds (such as intramuscular fat) to develop.
- Farming methods have changed: Intensive farming reduces pigs' activity levels and their diet (from a mix of wild vegetables and grains to formula feed), resulting in less flavorful meat.
4. Black pigs become a new trend
Consumer demand for better taste and health has driven the rise of black pigs:
- Higher prices and higher profits: Black pork is more expensive, but sales are good, with farmers in Sichuan reporting high profits.
- Companies are entering the market: Companies like Wens Group aim to make black pigs account for 5% of total sales, while platforms like Dingdong Maicai offer custom breeding services. Aisen also sells black pork products.
- Market growth: The black pig market is expected to reach 107.3 billion yuan by 2025 (up from 62.3 billion yuan in 2021), but challenges include higher fat content and longer breeding cycles, requiring technological innovation.
5. The industry's future
The pig farming industry is moving towards two main strategies:
- Cost reduction: Leading companies use smart technology and scientific management to lower costs.
- Differentiation: In addition to black pigs, some companies are experimenting with traditional farming methods (longer breeding cycles, free-range environments, fermented feed), which may increase costs by 20–30% but meet premium consumer demands.
- Competition has shifted: The focus is now on technology, breed quality, and brand reputation. However, industry standards for niche markets (like black pigs) are still lacking and need time to be established.
Conclusion
Lower pork prices are the result of technological advancements and increased scaling. Although the pig cycle has changed, supply and demand still determine prices. Consumer demand for better-quality meat is driving the industry towards differentiation, with specialty breeds like black pigs representing a new direction. The industry will become more mature in the future, and prices may become more stable, but the transition period will be challenging.
(The entire analysis is written in plain language, making it easy for non-financial professionals to understand.)