虎嗅

Zero Run, NIO, and Xpeng all achieved record sales in June, but I still think it's not enough.

原文:零跑、蔚来、小鹏6月销量创新高,我却认为还不够

Summary of Key Points

In June, the new energy vehicle market experienced a surge in sales: ZeroRun Motors achieved monthly sales of 90,000 units, NIO and Xpeng both returned to levels above 40,000 units per month, and HarmonyOS Auto (Huawei's collaborative automotive brand portfolio) surpassed 50,000 units in sales. However, these impressive figures are just the " appetizer" for the annual targets of these automakers; the second half of the year will be the real "clash stage," where challenges such as target pressure, intense competition, and cost fluctuations will intensify.

Detailed Analysis

1. Three Key Reasons for the Sales Surge in June

There are several reasons why sales were so strong in June:

  • Discounts: Automakers offered significant discounts to meet their half-year performance targets. ZeroRun reduced prices by several thousand to ten thousand yuan, NIO provided free battery swapping benefits, and Xpeng offered limited-time subsidies during the 618 shopping festival. Some brands even gave away charging stations and annual insurance, which encouraged hesitant consumers to make a purchase.
  • New Models: The revised HarmonyOS Auto AskMe M7 sold extremely well, and the ZeroRun C11 Extended Range version continued to perform well due to its cost-effective features. New models like NIO ES6 and Xpeng G6 also reached their peak delivery periods in June, contributing to the sales increase.
  • Timing: The 618 shopping festival boosted large-scale purchases, and many people took advantage of online ordering with platform discounts. Additionally, as it was the last month of the first half of the year, many consumers wanted to buy cars before policy changes (such as the expiration of local subsidies), leading to a concentrated surge in demand.

2. Each Brand's Strategy for Growth

Behind each brand's sales increase is a specific strategy:

  • ZeroRun: Focusing on cost-effectiveness, ZeroRun's vehicles are priced between 100,000 and 200,000 yuan, which is 20,000 to 30,000 yuan cheaper than similar models from other brands. They also offer intelligent driving features, appealing to ordinary families. For example, the ZeroRun C01 Extended Range version offers a range of 1,000 kilometers for just 150,000 yuan—what's not tempting?
  • NIO and Xpeng: After making adjustments, these brands have seen sales recover. NIO improved its battery swapping network, and Xpeng's G6, with its "800V high-voltage platform" and low price, has attracted younger customers, helping them return to sales levels above 40,000 units per month.
  • HarmonyOS Auto: The brand benefits from Huawei's ecosystem, allowing seamless integration with Huawei phones, watches, and smart home devices. For example, phone navigation can be directly displayed on the car's dashboard, and music automatically switches to the watch when getting out of the car. This "connected everything" experience has convinced many Huawei users to buy HarmonyOS Auto vehicles.

3. Why the Second Half of the Year Is a Challenging Period

Automakers have set annual targets at the beginning of the year, but the achievement rate in the first half was generally low. For instance, if a brand aims to sell 1 million units for the year and only sold 350,000 in the first half, it must sell over 100,000 units per month in the second half to meet its goal—this means doubling June's sales. Many brands have aggressive targets (e.g., NIO's annual target of 240,000 units with only around 100,000 sold in the first half), so they need to work hard.

The problem is that many discounts used in the first half have already reduced profits, and further price cuts in the second half could lead to losses. Not cutting prices might result in declining sales, creating a dilemma for automakers.

4. Intense Competition in the Second Half of the Year

The market will become more competitive:

  • Traditional Automakers Entering the Scene: Brands like BYD, Geely, and Great Wall will continue to reduce prices on their new energy vehicles (e.g., BYD Song PLUS has already seen a price cut of 20,000 yuan). Joint venture brands such as Volkswagen's ID series and Toyota's bZ series will also offer discounts to attract customers from new entrants.
  • Technological Competition: Features like intelligent driving, range, and charging speed will be key competitive factors. Xpeng plans to introduce urban NOA (automatic navigation and driving), while Huawei aims to launch more advanced driver assistance systems. The brand with the most practical technology will gain a larger market share.
  • Cost Fluctuations: Lithium prices, a key component for batteries, have started to rise again. If this trend continues, automakers will either bear the increased costs (reducing profits) or raise prices (leading to lower sales), which could be fatal for smaller brands.

5. What's the Impact on Consumers?

In the short term, it's a beneficial period for consumers as automakers will continue to offer discounts and additional benefits. However, in the long run, if some smaller brands fail due to competition, issues with repairs, maintenance, and parts replacement may arise. It's advisable to choose larger brands with well-established after-sales services when purchasing a car, rather than focusing solely on low prices.

In summary, the sales surge in June is a temporary success, but the second half of the year will truly test the strength of automakers. For consumers, now is a good time to buy a car, but it's important to choose a reliable brand.