Summary of Key Points
Recently, two AI large-model companies in the Hong Kong stock market (Zhipu and MiniMax) have seen the lifting of restrictions on their restricted shares. Although the scale of the share releases seems substantial (with Zhipu's release valued at over HK$40 billion), the market reaction has been stable (Zhipu's stock price rose by 13% on the day of the release). Experts from Goldman Sachs believe that such share releases will not impact the overall trend of the Hong Kong stock market, as these two companies account for a very small portion of Hong Kong's total financing and market value. At the same time, the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a stark contrast: while the AI sector is seeing a boom in IPOs and trading activity, the broader market index continues to decline. The root cause of this is that the constituents of the index have not kept up with the changes brought about by the AI era. It is expected that IPO activities in Hong Kong will remain active in the second half of the year, with AI remaining a core theme.
Detailed Analysis
1. **Large-Model Share Releases: No Panic, Instead, the Market Rose?**
On July 8th, Zhipu saw the release of 25.68 million shares held by 11 cornerstone investors (representing 5.76% of the total share capital, valued at over HK$40 billion). However, the stock price opened lower but closed higher, ultimately rising by 13%. There are two reasons for this:
- reassurance from institutions: Several institutions, such as JSC Fund and WT Asset Management, had previously stated their intention to hold the shares in the long term, alleviating market concerns about potential selling by these institutions.
- anticipation of pressure: On July 2nd, Zhipu's stock price fell by 17%, and MiniMax's fell by 15%; however, both companies experienced consecutive three-day declines afterward, indicating that investors had already absorbed the potential negative impact before the actual release date.
2. **Will Share Releases Hurt the Hong Kong Stock Market? Goldman Sachs: The Impact Is Minimal**
Wang Yajun from Goldman Sachs argues that the share releases by these AI companies will have a negligible effect on the overall market:
- Low Financing Impact: Zhipu and MiniMax raised HK$4.9 billion and HK$5.5 billion through their IPOs, respectively, which is only a small fraction of Hong Kong's total financing in the first half of the year.
- Small Market Value Contribution: The combined market value of these two companies is less than HK$1 trillion, compared to Hong Kong's total market value of HK$43.3 trillion, making their impact negligible.
- Market Resilience: Hong Kong is an international market with a large capacity and diverse funding sources; the release of shares by individual companies will not change the overall trend.
3. **A Contradictory Market in Hong Kong: AI Is Booming, but the Index Is Slowing**
The current Hong Kong stock market shows clear divergence:
- AI Sector Is Hot: In the first half of the year, IPOs in the AI sector raised over HK$209.8 billion, and new stocks had an average first-day return of 61%. Companies related to AI were the most active in terms of IPOs and trading.
- Slow Index Performance: The Hang Seng Index fell by 10.73%, the Technology Index by 18.92%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index by 15.21%.
- Reason for Divergence: The index constituents have not been updated quickly enough to reflect the emergence of new AI companies, preventing the index from accurately representing the current state of the Hong Kong stock market in the AI era.
4. **AI Is More Than Just Large Models: The Entire Industry Chain Is Flourishing**
Wang Yajun emphasizes that AI has expanded beyond large models to encompass the entire industry chain:
- Demand Driven: There is a growing demand for AI solutions from businesses, which is driving increased investment by AI companies.
- Full Industry Chain Benefiting: The entire industry chain, from chips and algorithms to large-model applications, is benefiting from the development of AI.
5. **Hong Kong IPOs in the Second Half of the Year: AI Will Remain the Focus, with Potential Higher Financing**
Goldman Sachs expects more IPO activities in Hong Kong in the second half of the year:
- Abundant Projects: There are many high-quality projects waiting to go public.
- AI as a Core Theme: Companies related to AI will continue to be the main source of financing.
- Sufficient Funds: Goldman Sachs' involvement in large-scale convertible bond issuances by companies like Midea and WuXi AppTec indicates that market funds are plentiful.
In summary, the current core logic of the Hong Kong stock market is that AI is driving localized growth, while the broader index is lagging behind in its adjustment. Ordinary investors should focus on opportunities within the AI industry chain and need not worry excessively about the short-term impact of individual company share releases.