Summary of Key Points
During the NATO summit, Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain and even expel it from NATO, due to long-standing disagreements on issues such as NATO military spending, the US-Iran conflict, and Venezuela. However, both threats are unlikely to become a reality: Cutting off trade would require overcoming legal barriers (such as declaring a national emergency and labeling Spain as a "threat"); expelling Spain from NATO is not possible as there is no corresponding mechanism in place. Additionally, although the US has a trade surplus with Spain, details such as Spanish agricultural products competing with American farmers and Spain's decision to cancel an F35 fighter jet order have further exacerbated Trump's dissatisfaction.
1. Trump's "Anger": Accumulated Resentment
Trump's resentment towards Spain is not spontaneous but stems from multiple issues:
- Military Spending: The US requires NATO members to increase their military spending to 5% of GDP, while Spain only spends 2.1% (an increase from 1.4% in 2021) and was the only NATO country last year to refuse to commit to reaching this target by 2035.
- Non-Cooperation on the US-Iran Conflict: In March, when the US attacked Iran, Spain refused to provide military bases and even asked the US to remove 10 refueling planes, emphasizing that cooperation must comply with international law.
- Contradictory International Stances: On Venezuela, Spain criticized the US for detaining Maduro and his family, violating international law; on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Spain recognized the State of Palestine and imposed a weapons embargo on Israel.
These actions have led Trump to perceive Spain as uncooperative, unwilling to pay its share, and unfriendly.
2. US-Spanish Trade: Profits Despite Challenges
On the surface, the US benefits from trade with Spain: In 2025, US exports to Spain amounted to $26.1 billion, imports to $21.3 billion, resulting in a surplus of $4.8 billion (for four consecutive years). However, there are two issues that affect US interests:
- Agricultural Competition: Nearly 40% of Spanish exports to the US consist of olive oil and wine, which competes with farmers in Republican-leaning states.
- Loss of Military Contracts: Earlier this year, Spain canceled its order for F35 fighter jets in favor of European sixth-generation aircraft projects, costing Lockheed Martin $9 billion in business.
3. Cutting Off Trade: Legal Obstacles
Experts point out that Trump would face significant legal hurdles if he wanted to cut off trade with Spain:
The US International Emergency Economic Powers Act allows the president to impose embargoes during a national emergency, but two conditions must be met: declaring a state of emergency for Spain and labeling it as an "exceptional and unusual" threat. However, the Supreme Court has never explicitly supported such actions, and calling Spain a threat seems far-fetched, making implementation extremely difficult.
4. Expelling Spain from NATO: No Such Option
Trump's attempt to expel Spain from NATO is unfeasible:
NATO is an organization aimed at collective security, with no mechanism for forcibly removing members, and no country (including the US) has the power to unilaterally expel another member. This threat is more of a rhetorical expression than a concrete plan.
Conclusion
Trump's threats are more akin to an outlet for his emotions rather than a real plan of action. The differences between the US and Spain are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, and the interconnected nature of trade and NATO relationships means neither country can easily sever ties. For ordinary citizens, there is no need to worry about an immediate disruption in trade relations. However, international political maneuvers often affect various industries through subtle issues such as trade and military agreements (for example, American farmers and Spanish olive oil exporters).