第一财经

The person who posted about Zhonggong Education's "vulgar bet" has been found, and the hidden funds have already fled the country.

原文:中公教育“低俗赌约”发帖人找到了,这些潜伏资金已出逃

Summary of Key Points

Zhonggong Education’s stock has surged by 25% in the past five days, not due to improved business performance, but rather because a vulgar gambling post on a social media platform has sparked speculation. Behind this is an old tactic: funds lay out positions in advance and use “internet tactics” to manipulate the market—first buying stocks secretly, then using provocative content to attract retail investors to follow suit, and finally selling at high prices for a profit. Regulators have initiated an investigation into the poster. Similar manipulations (such as Xiangyang Bearing’s “request for a limit up” and 2024 “timing predictions”) have occurred before, with these stocks typically sharing common characteristics: low prices, small market capitalization, and poor performance.

Detailed Analysis

1. The Trigger for the Surge: How Did a Vulgar Post Spark Stock Prices?

Zhonggong Education’s rise was completely unexpected. On July 2nd, a stock-related social media account with a female profile posted a sexually suggestive gambling statement (e.g., “20x return in a year”), which was quickly shared via screenshots and pushed the stock onto the trending list. Although the company issued an urgent announcement stating there were no positive developments, and the exchange suspended trading for some investors, speculative funds and institutions continued to buy. The trading data on July 7th showed that institutional accounts bought a net amount of 37.55 million yuan, with Guosen Securities’ Zhejiang Internet branch buying 21.25 million yuan, while retail investors also joined in.

In simple terms, the post created buzz, and the buzz attracted funds; the post itself had no real value but was enough to draw attention and turn an otherwise unnoticed stock into a focal point for price manipulation.

2. The Tricks Are Obvious: Funds Were Laying Out Positions Long Ago

Before the stock price soared, funds had already begun their “secret” maneuvers. Take Zhonggong Education as an example:

  • At the end of June, its price dropped to 1.77 yuan (the lowest of the year), with low trading volume (200-400 million yuan per day);
  • On June 30th, trading volume surged to 588 million yuan (doubling from the previous day), with a 10.5% price change;
  • On July 1st, the stock hit the daily limit up, with trading volume reaching 768 million yuan.

The same pattern was observed for Gongjin Shares: before June 30th, trading volume rarely exceeded 400 million yuan, but on that day it hit the limit up; on July 6th, it hit the limit up again with a trading volume of 915 million yuan. These data indicate that someone had bought a large amount of shares in advance, waiting for the price to rise before selling.

The trading data on July 7th was even more conclusive: the “sell one” and “sell two” seats were both used by buyers from earlier purchases, with net sales of 700,000 yuan and 410,000 yuan respectively, a typical strategy for driving up prices before selling.

3. Old Tactics with New Tricks: How Does the “Internet Tactic” Manipulate Retail Investors?

This type of speculation is known as the “internet tactic,” which essentially uses social media traffic and public sentiment to manipulate stock prices. Common tactics include:

  • Vulgar/sentimental marketing: For example, someone posted on Xiangyang Bearing’s page in 2025 saying, “My child is seriously ill; please help push the stock to the limit up,” and the next day the stock indeed hit the limit up;
  • Precise timing predictions: In 2024, someone accurately predicted that Nanjing Chemical Fiber’s stock would drop at 2:34 PM and Zhongtong Bus’ stock would hit the limit up at 1:20 PM, both of which came true;
  • Fabricated news: Speculative funds collaborate with “news dealers” to spread false information as “insider knowledge” to drive retail investors to buy.

These stocks share common characteristics: low prices (Zhonggong Education’s price before the surge was 1.77 yuan), small market capitalization (Gongjin Shares’ market cap was 10.6 billion yuan), and poor performance (Zhonggong Education had over 1.4 billion yuan in debt, while Nanjing Chemical Fiber had lost money for three consecutive years). Due to their small size, a small amount of funds can significantly drive up their prices, making them easy to manipulate.

4. Regulators Are Taking Action: How Serious Are the Consequences of Illegal Speculation?

The Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) initiated an investigation into the poster, An (online username “Nanjing Road Baby Total”), accusing him of “severely disrupting public order and good morals” and potentially violating securities laws. According to the Securities Law, market manipulation and false information dissemination can result in fines of up to 10 times the illegal gains, or even referral to criminal authorities.

There are previous cases: In 2025, Jin Yongrong (a well-known online stock commentator) recommended stocks and then sold them in the opposite direction, making a profit of 40 million yuan, but was fined and banned from the stock market for three years. Lawyers also warn platforms not to allow vulgar and provocative content to go unchecked; they must promptly remove such posts and limit user access, or they may face liability as well.

5. A Guide for Retail Investors: How to Avoid Getting Scammed

Such speculation seems attractive, but retail investors are easily exploited:

  • Don’t follow hot trends: 90% of sudden price increases in low-priced stocks are due to manipulation; don’t buy just because a stock is popular.
  • Focus on fundamentals: Avoid companies with poor performance and high debt, no matter how cheap they seem.
  • Recognize warning signs: Sudden surge in trading volume and increased social media attention may indicate that funds are preparing to sell; exit the market quickly.
  • Remember: There’s no such thing as a free lunch: “Gambling bets” and “predictions” are often traps; real profit opportunities won’t be announced online.

In summary, investing should be based on logic, not emotion. Don’t let vulgar posts or fabricated stories mislead you—protecting your money is the key.