Summary of Key Points
According to the 2025 Ministry of Education statistical report, the number of kindergartens and private schools nationwide has been on a continuous decline: over the past four years, the number of kindergartens has decreased by 62,900 (with nearly 59 closing each day in 2025), and the number of private schools has decreased by 53,600 (with 41 closing each day in 2025). The main reason behind this is the decline in the birth rate. At the policy level, measures such as resource allocation and support for affordable kindergartens are being implemented to address the issue. Some private institutions are attempting to transform their operations (e.g., by integrating childcare services or providing care for both young children and the elderly), as private education needs to find a distinct development path from public education.
I. Kindergartens: From Growth to Accelerated Decline
The change in the number of kindergartens can be divided into two phases: from 2017 to 2021, there was growth, but the rate of increase gradually slowed down (only 1.07% in the last year). In 2022, a turning point occurred, with a shift from growth to decline, and the number of kindergartens closing each year has been increasing (14,800 in 2023, 21,100 in 2024, and 21,400 in 2025), with the decline rate rising from 5% to 8.45%. Over these four years, not only has the number of kindergartens decreased by 62,900, but the number of children enrolled also dropped by more than 15.79 million.
What is the direct cause? It is the decline in the birth rate—the number of newborns has been continuously decreasing, leaving kindergartens with fewer children to enroll. For example, on average, 59 kindergartens closed each day in 2025, which means that about 2-3 kindergartens were closing every hour, highlighting the immense pressure on the industry.
II. Private Schools: Not a Complete Decline, but Clear Differentiation
The overall number of private schools has been declining for six consecutive years, but the situation within these schools varies:
- Declining sectors: Private kindergartens (which once accounted for 90% of all private schools) and private schools at the compulsory education stage (primary and junior high levels). From 2021 to 2025, the number of private kindergartens decreased from 166,700 to 120,800, and the number of private compulsory education schools decreased from 12,200 to 9,081, with a significant reduction in the number of students (10.01 million fewer in kindergartens and 6.5 million fewer in compulsory education schools).
- Growing sectors: The number of private high schools and private universities has increased—private high schools have grown from 4,008 to 5,003, with an increase of 1.5 million students, and private universities have grown from 764 to 831, with an increase of 2.23 million students.
Why is there this differentiation? On one hand, the number of public resources for kindergartens and compulsory education has been increasing (e.g., more public kindergarten places), squeezing the space for private institutions. On the other hand, private high schools and universities offer unique advantages (such as international programs or vocational training), attracting some parents and students.
III. Policy Measures: Adjusting Resources to Help Institutions Survive
In response to this trend, the government is taking action:
- Dynamic Resource Adjustment: Establishing monitoring and early warning systems for the school-age population to adjust the location and number of schools and kindergartens based on changes in the number of children, avoiding waste of resources.
- Maintaining Affordability and Supporting Public Schools: Continuously increasing the number of public kindergarten places while supporting affordable private kindergartens (those with lower fees and government subsidies) to provide parents with more affordable options.
- Smaller Class Sizes: In the future, class sizes may be reduced to improve teaching quality and adapt to the decreasing number of children.
IV. Institutional Self-Saving Strategies: Moving from Focusing on Children to Providing Diverse Services
Facing difficulties in enrollment, many institutions are transforming their operations:
- Integration of Childcare and Education: Combining kindergarten services with childcare for children aged 0-3 years old to expand their range of services (e.g., now accepting children aged 1-6 instead of only 3-6).
- Combining Care for the Elderly and Children: A kindergarten in Jinhua, Zhejiang, that has been in operation for 25 years, converted into a community nursing home in 2023—using its existing facilities and staff to serve the elderly. This model not only addresses the issue of empty kindergartens but also meets the needs of the community for elderly care.
V. The Future of Private Education: Differentiation Rather than Competing with Public Schools
Experts suggest that private schools should no longer try to mimic public schools but should focus on areas where they have unique strengths or can excel:
- Specialized Development: For example, private high schools can offer international curricula, and private vocational schools can collaborate with businesses for skills training. Private kindergartens can provide premium childcare services or special interest classes.
- Policy Support: The government will improve the management systems for private schools (e.g., in finance and property protection) to make them more stable and encourage cross-departmental cooperation and digital management to enhance efficiency.
In summary, private education needs to shift from being a complement to public education to engaging in differentiated competition if it is to survive in the context of a declining population. This news reflects a broader trend: changes in the population structure are significantly affecting the education sector. Both kindergartens and private schools must adapt to market and policy changes to find their new roles. For parents, there will be more choices in the future, but they should also consider the stability of the schools. For institutions, transformation and specialization are essential paths to take.