Summary of Key Points
A 2026 report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace provides a systematic analysis of the current state and future of U.S. economic power: The United States does not rely solely on the dominance of the dollar but instead constructs a multifaceted economic power system based on six pillars—production, markets, finance, technological nodes, digital platforms, and rule-making. While its economic advantages remain solid (with a rising GDP share and leadership in high-end manufacturing), it faces shortcomings in its mid- to low-end industrial chains. The rise of alternative global payment systems has weakened U.S. financial control. AI has become a new focus for the United States in shaping future competition. By adjusting its economic strategy, the U.S. is forcing other countries to accelerate their efforts towards “risk reduction.”
I. U.S. Economic Power: More Than Just Dollar Dominance—A Combination of Six Pillars
For a long time, it has been believed that the U.S. economy’s strength stems from the dollar and Wall Street, but the report highlights a more comprehensive framework consisting of six core pillars:
- Production Capacity: High-end manufacturing (such as chip equipment), energy production, and the supply of critical minerals and strategic materials are fundamental to economic security.
- Market Power: As the world’s largest buyer, with imports exceeding $4 trillion, the U.S. can influence other countries’ trade policies and industrial layouts through its purchasing power.
- Financial Power: The dollar is the primary global reserve currency, and Wall Street is a central financial hub, enabling the U.S. to exert influence globally through financial means.
- Control of Technological Nodes: The U.S. holds control over key aspects of the supply chain, such as chip production, semiconductor design software, and high-end manufacturing equipment, potentially restricting access for others.
- Digital Platform Advantages: Giants like Google, Apple, and Microsoft have global platforms that serve as tools for projecting American influence.
- Rule-Making Authority: Since World War II, the U.S. has led in setting rules for the global finance, trade, and digital economy (e.g., through organizations like the WTO and SWIFT), and it continues to update these rules to maintain its dominance.
These pillars complement each other; for example, controlling technology can enhance financial influence, and a large market size can facilitate the implementation of rules, creating a mutually dependent system.
II. U.S. Economy: Strong in High-End Areas but Weak in Mid- to Low-End Segments
The report acknowledges that the U.S. economy is still among the top in the world, but it has clear weaknesses:
- Advantages: The U.S. accounts for 25–26% of the global GDP (up from 20% in 2011) and has the largest import market, with high-end manufacturing contributing $2.9 trillion to GDP (second only to China).
- Weaknesses: There is a “hollowing out” of its mid- to low-end industrial chains; for instance, the U.S. produces less than 1% of civilian ships and relies on imports for 70% of essential pharmaceutical ingredients and rare earth minerals. In other words, while it excels in high-end areas, its foundational sectors are vulnerable, posing significant supply chain risks.
III. Are Dollar Sanctions No Longer Effective? Alternative Payment Systems Are Emerging
In the past, the U.S. used the SWIFT system to impose sanctions, preventing trade with targeted countries. However, this is changing:
- China’s CIPS, Russia’s Mir, India’s UPI, and the EU’s independent payment systems, although smaller in scale than SWIFT, can support some cross-border transactions.
- For example, Iran has been able to maintain its energy exports through non-dollar channels despite U.S. sanctions. This indicates that U.S. financial control is declining, and the effectiveness of sanctions is diminishing.
IV. AI as a New Tool for Future Economic Power
The report highlights AI as a key driver of future competition:
- U.S. companies dominate key aspects of the AI ecosystem—NVIDIA holds 80% of global AI training chip market share, EDA software 75%, and cloud computing 70%. They also lead with platforms like Android and iOS.
- The U.S. aims to spread AI technology, chip standards, and digital platform models globally to reinforce its influence in the digital economy.
V. The U.S. Attempts to Reshape Rules, but This Forces Other Countries to Reduce Risks
After Trump’s second term, the U.S. adjusted its economic strategy:
- Using tariffs and bilateral agreements to pressure allies against China, strengthening export controls, and promoting the return of advanced manufacturing, energy exports, and AI cooperation.
- It has also incorporated fintech initiatives (such as stablecoins) into its strategy to maintain dollar dominance.
However, this has led other countries to accelerate their efforts towards reducing reliance on the U.S., developing their own payment systems and digital infrastructure, and seeking more trade partners.
Future competition will not be limited to trade wars but will involve a comprehensive battle of technology, industrial chains, digital ecosystems, and rule-making. For China, innovation, addressing supply chain weaknesses, and developing a digital economy are crucial.
In essence, the report suggests that while the U.S. remains powerful, the global landscape is changing. Future economic power will not be solely in the hands of the United States; it will depend on which country can build a more autonomous and diversified system.