Summary of Key Points
There was a slight reversal in the June passenger car sales rankings: two fuel-powered vehicles, the Toyota Camry and Volkswagen Lavida, made it back into the top ten, breaking the trend where all the top ten positions were occupied by new energy vehicles in May. However, this is just a temporary resurgence for these individual models, as overall fuel-powered vehicle sales continue to decline sharply—by 39% year-on-year, accounting for 78% of the total decrease in the car market. The reason for the brief improvement is the reduction in oil prices (lowering the cost of driving) and the narrowing of discounts on new energy vehicles (temporarily increasing their cost-effectiveness). Nevertheless, the long-term trend of replacing fuel with electric power remains unchanged, and the inevitable departure of fuel-powered vehicles from the market is a certainty.
I. Two Fuel-Powered Vehicles Make It Back into the Top Ten; New Energy Vehicles Dominated in May
In May, the sales rankings were entirely dominated by new energy vehicles, with no fuel-powered models making it into the top 20 (even big players like the Volkswagen Lavida at 18th and Nissan Altima at 20th). But things changed in June: the Toyota Camry sold 17,114 units and ranked ninth, while the Volkswagen Lavida sold 15,444 units, just making it back into the top ten. However, the other eight positions in the top ten are still occupied by new energy vehicles. The Tesla Model Y led with 38,654 units, followed by Geely Xingyuan and Leapmotor A10, indicating that this is just a temporary breakthrough for fuel-powered vehicles and not a general reversal of their fortunes.
II. Why Have Fuel-Powered Vehicles Suddenly Become More Popular?
There are two main reasons:
1. Lower Oil Prices: Domestic oil prices dropped twice in June, resulting in a savings of 0.81 yuan per liter over two months for 92-octane gasoline. For example, if you drive 1,000 kilometers per month and your car consumes 8 liters of fuel, you can save 64.8 yuan per month, which adds up to nearly 800 yuan a year—a significant amount of money for an average family.
2. Reduced Discounts on New Energy Vehicles: The cost of battery materials (such as lithium) and chips has risen sharply, putting pressure on new energy vehicle manufacturers, leading to smaller discounts on their products (for example, a discount of 20,000 yuan may now be reduced to 10,000 yuan). With these changes, fuel-powered vehicles temporarily appear more cost-effective.
III. Overall Decline of Fuel-Powered Vehicles: No Brand is Immune
Don’t let the temporary success of these two models fool you—the overall market for fuel-powered vehicles is in a downward trend. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that fuel-powered vehicle sales in June were 595,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39%. Even more strikingly, 78% of the total decline in the car market was due to fuel-powered vehicles. This applies to all brands—both domestic (such as Geely’s fuel-powered vehicles), joint-venture brands (like Volkswagen and Toyota), and luxury brands (such as the BBA models)—with a 39% drop across the board. This indicates that it’s not a problem specific to any one brand but a reflection of the entire fuel-powered vehicle market being left behind by the times.
IV. Accelerating Replacement of Fuel with Electric Power: The Inevitable Trend
CAAM clearly pointed out the core characteristics of the June car market: “collapse in domestic sales of fuel-powered vehicles, dominance of new energy vehicles, and growth in exports.” This means that fuel-powered vehicles are struggling to sell domestically, while new energy vehicles are taking the lead. The reason for this is twofold: high oil prices are increasing the cost of driving, and consumers are increasingly seeing electric vehicles as more economical and intelligent options. Even if a few fuel-powered vehicles make it back into the top ten temporarily, it’s just a brief resurgence; in the long run, their exit from the mainstream market is inevitable.
V. Conclusion: Temporary Reversal Does Not Change the Long-Term Trend
The brief comeback of fuel-powered vehicles is more like a “phase-out rebound” rather than a true reversal. The reduction in oil prices and the narrowing of discounts on new energy vehicles are temporary, but the overall trend towards replacing fuel with electric power will not change. After all, new energy represents the future, and fuel-powered vehicles are just a part of the past. Next time we look at the sales rankings, it’s possible that all the top ten positions will again be occupied by new energy vehicles.
(I’ve used plain language throughout to ensure easy understanding for everyone.)