Summary of Key Points
This year, Typhoon Meishak caused a breach at the Liulan Reservoir in Nanning, exposing a widespread issue with many old reservoirs in China that are still in use despite having underlying safety issues. These reservoirs, built in the 1950s and 1970s, have poor design and construction standards and lack adequate maintenance. Coupled with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, their safety risks are significant. What's more concerning is that a large portion of the resources allocated to addressing climate change (in the tens of trillions) are being directed towards carbon emissions reduction, while the funds needed for renovating these old reservoirs (in the hundreds of billions) are severely insufficient. As a result, immediate safety needs are being neglected in favor of long-term emission reduction goals, creating an urgent crisis.
I. The Liulan Reservoir Incident: Not an Accident, but an Inevitable Consequence of Poor Maintenance
The Liulan Reservoir is an old structure built in the 1950s and put into use in 1960, having operated for over 60 years. It has long been identified as a problematic reservoir, with outdated facilities and poor management practices. Although it underwent repairs twice—once in 2009 for reinforcement (claimed to meet "century-long" flood resistance standards) and again in 2023 for the irrigation system—the main dam was not repaired during either instance. This time, the typhoon proved too much for the dam's weak structure.
Worse still, this is not an isolated case: four reservoirs in Nanning and five in Guigang experienced breaches, and a total of 341 reservoirs across Guangxi exceeded their flood capacity limits, most of which are similar to the Liulan Reservoir. This indicates that safety issues with old reservoirs in Guangxi have been accumulating for a long time; it was just a matter of time before a major disaster occurred.
II. The National Situation: 80% of Old Reservoirs Are from the 1950s, with 16% in Critical Condition
China currently has nearly 100,000 reservoirs, 80% of which were built during the 1950s and 1970s. These reservoirs have two major flaws:
- Inherent Deficiencies: Limited technology and materials at the time led to low design standards (many were designed to withstand floods occurring once every 20 years).
- Lack of Maintenance: There has been a focus on new construction over maintenance, resulting in decades of neglect.
Data from the Ministry of Water Resources shows that there are still 16,000 reservoirs classified as "Class 3" (highly dangerous), accounting for 16% of the total. Events such as the severe flooding in Zhengzhou in 2021 and the floods in the Haihe River basin in 2023 were all consequences of the long-term neglect of these old reservoirs. The Liulan Reservoir was identified as a dangerous structure in 2008 and was theoretically deemed safe after reinforcement in 2009, but the problems remain. This highlights that being classified as "safe" does not necessarily mean it is actually safe; how many more reservoirs are just pretending to be healthy?
III. The Impact of Extreme Weather
The design standards for reservoirs (e.g., withstandable once-in-a-century floods) were based on climate data from decades ago. However, with global warming, extreme weather events have become more frequent. In 2024, Guangxi experienced 17 torrential rains and floods, and in 2025, there will be three more typhoons on top of the usual flooding issues. The frequency and intensity of these events far exceed what was anticipated.
This is like a house with drainage systems designed for once-in-ten-year floods that now faces once-in-twenty-year rains—definitely problematic! The design standards for old reservoirs have not kept up with changing weather patterns, making them vulnerable to disasters.
IV. Where Has the Money Gone?
A significant amount of money has been invested in climate change mitigation, with most funds going towards carbon emissions reduction. A team from Fudan University estimates that China will need 315 trillion yuan to achieve industrial carbon neutrality (156 trillion yuan for clean energy and 63 trillion yuan for transforming traditional industries). In contrast, only 155.3 billion yuan has been spent on renovating old reservoirs since the year 2000, which is a fraction of the amount allocated to carbon reduction.
Despite more than 20 years of efforts under the Kyoto Protocol, the harm caused by extreme weather has not significantly decreased. The safety of old reservoirs is a matter of life and death; a breach could lead to catastrophic consequences. It's like fixing a leaking roof by investing all your money in future solar panels without first repairing the leaks—what good are the panels if the house is still flooded?
V. Immediate Action: Fixing Old Reservoirs Before Focusing on Long-Term Emissions Reduction
The real issue with old reservoirs is not whether they can be repaired, but whether there is the will to prioritize their maintenance. China has the capability to renovate many of these structures, but funds and resources are being diverted towards carbon reduction.
What needs to be done now is to elevate the priority of reservoir renovations. The first step should be to repair the 16,000 dangerous reservoirs, followed by a thorough inspection of those that appear safe but are actually in need of maintenance. After all, addressing climate change requires both preparing for the future (through carbon reduction) and ensuring the safety of existing structures (by fixing old reservoirs). We cannot afford to neglect one aspect at the expense of the other.
In conclusion, the incident at the Liulan Reservoir is a warning: the safety risks associated with old reservoirs have reached a critical point. Resources must be reallocated to meet immediate safety needs. Otherwise, more old reservoirs will fail when extreme weather strikes, leading to even more severe consequences.