Summary of the Core Content
This article recounts the life of economist Gao Shanwen: starting as a boy from a humble background in Linfen, Shanxi, he became a top macroeconomic analyst through his commitment to empirical research and a spirit of seeking truth. He used unique methods—such as examining the economy from the supply side and testing hypotheses with experimental thinking—to make accurate predictions (for example, predicting a narrowing trade surplus and the stock market peak at 6124 points). However, he was always aware of the limitations of his forecasts. When faced with cancer, he adopted a philosophical attitude, accepting that his blessings were too great, and continued to pursue the truth in life.
I. Applying “Ant Experiments” to Economics: No Digital Games, Only Empirical Evidence
Gao Shanwen’s research approach is akin to that of scientists conducting experiments: observing unusual phenomena, formulating testable hypotheses, and then verifying their validity with evidence. For instance, when studying how African ants find their homes, he suggested cutting or lengthening the ants’ legs to test his theory, and the results confirmed his hypothesis.
He particularly despises two types of people: those who manipulate data like financial statements to appear sophisticated, and those who blindly follow Western theories without understanding the real issues. He has a practical reason for not using Western models: China is changing too rapidly, and the parameters in these models cannot keep up. Instead, he prefers a more “straightforward” approach, closely examining China’s specific circumstances and identifying unique constraints before drawing conclusions.
II. Counterintuitive Predictions: From a Narrowing Trade Surplus to the Stock Market Peak at 6124 Points
From 2005 to 2007, China’s trade surplus was astonishing, and many believed it was due to an undervalued RMB, high savings rates, and an export-driven economy. Gao Shanwen argued that this was actually a sign of expanding total supply (e.g., improved corporate efficiency and increased production capacity). He predicted that the surplus would eventually shrink, and that indeed happened.
In March 2006, he proposed the theory of “asset revaluation”: excessive capital inflows would force people and institutions to reallocate their assets, leading to higher asset prices in the stock market and real estate. His prediction came true when the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6124 points within a year and a half, earning him recognition and four consecutive years as the best macroeconomic analyst according to *New Fortune*.
III. The Humor Behind Self-mocking Couplets: Acknowledging the Limits of Prediction
After becoming famous, Gao Shanwen wrote a couplet that reflected his understanding of the limitations of economic forecasting: “I can explain the past with great accuracy, but my predictions about the future are often inaccurate.” This was not an act of humility; it reflected his realization that even physical laws require precise initial conditions, and economic forecasts are even more challenging due to unpredictable factors (such as policy changes and external shocks). He believed that a mistake in forecasting is not a flaw in logic but rather a misunderstanding of the underlying circumstances.
His book *The Truth About Economic Operations* aimed to address real issues in areas like prices, real estate, and shadow banking, rather than making meaningless predictions.
IV. From Making Dry Crêpes to Accepting “Excessive Blessings”: A Life of Seeking Truth, Finally Evaluating His Own Life
Gao Shanwen’s journey began in the countryside of Linfen. His first encounter with fish was outside a restaurant in the county town, where he envied the people of big cities while eating dry crêpes. He struggled with English, mistaking “fireman” for “fire person.” Later, he attended prestigious universities like Peking University and Tsinghua University and became a influential economist with a comfortable life, surrounded by cultured friends.
After being diagnosed with cancer, he wrote: “As a child from a poor family, I was fortunate to study at top universities, achieve success in my career, and associate with refined people. My blessings are indeed too great; this trial is part of my fate, and perhaps it is heaven’s way of guiding me.” This self-reflection was another example of his pursuit of truth: he carefully evaluated his life and concluded that his blessings were beyond what he deserved.
His life’s journey—from making dry crêpes to facing cancer—illustrates his perseverance in seeking the truth. He faced his final moments with an attitude of acceptance, just as he always did throughout his life.
Conclusion
Gao Shanwen’s life exemplifies the idea that “light can bend.” His path from making simple crafts to making accurate economic predictions, and then to accepting the reality of excessive blessings, reflects his unwavering dedication to discovering the truth. May he, as he said himself, “be in accordance with the truth” at the end of his life.