Summary of Key Points
This news article focuses on the "reconstruction of global order and corporate globalization choices," analyzing four major changes in the current global landscape through the speech of Chong Quan, a former official from the Ministry of Commerce. The United States is dismantling the post-war order it established, the US-Iran war has triggered a chain reaction affecting energy, economy, and trust, relations between China, the US, and Europe are characterized by a balance between competition and stability, China's cooperation with developing countries (the "Global South") has evolved from market diversification to strategic positioning, and the WTO multilateral trade system is facing challenges as the old order collapses and new rules await establishment. The overall message is that while the old order is crumbling, a new one has not yet taken its place, and China is transitioning from being a driver of economic imbalance to a stabilizing force in the global economy.
Detailed Analysis
1. The United States: Dismantling Its Own Post-War Order, Becoming a Source of Global Instability
The international system established by the US after World War II, including the UN Charter and multilateral trade rules, promoted globalization and long-term peace. However, the US is now undermining this order. This year's wars in Venezuela and Iran have not only disrupted the order it created but also challenged the fundamental principle of inviolability of national sovereignty. Chong Quan believes that the US has become a major source of geopolitical uncertainty; previously seen as a maintainer of order, it has now become a destroyer.
2. The Chain Reaction of the US-Iran War: Asia Suffers, China Unexpectedly Becomes a Stabilizer
The most direct victims of this war are Asia and Gulf countries. Asia is the "locomotive" of the global economy, but the war has slowed its development; Gulf countries' plans to build financial, logistical, and AI hubs have been interrupted. China, on the other hand, has remained resilient:
- China's dependence on oil is only 18% (compared to 38% for the US and Japan), and it has strategic reserves of 1.4 billion barrels (vs. 413 million for the US and 263 million for Japan);
- In May, China imported nearly 4 million fewer barrels of crude oil per day and relied on its reserves and coal-fired power generation, which helped lower oil prices and benefited other oil-importing countries.
China, once criticized for being a driver of global economic imbalance, is now seen as a key stabilizer.
3. Relations between China, the US, and Europe: A Mix of Cooperation and Competition
- US-China Relations: Chong Quan describes the current relationship as "constructive strategic stability." While deep integration may be coming to an end, complete decoupling is unrealistic. A more feasible approach is "selective interdependence"—competition in areas like technology (e.g., semiconductors) coexists with cooperation in mutually beneficial fields (e.g., trade). The visit of 17 high-tech CEOs to China with Trump in May reflects this balance, aiming to prevent conflict escalation rather than ending tensions.
- China-Europe Relations: Investment cooperation between Europe and China is growing. Critics argue about China's "overcapacity," but Chong Quan points out this is a misconception. In 1950, the US manufacturing sector accounted for 60% of global output, while France, Germany, and Italy still achieved a 30-year period of industrial prosperity; today, China's manufacturing share is only 28%, far lower than that of the US. Europe's problems stem from its own declining competitiveness and high energy costs, not China.
4. China's Cooperation with the "Global South": Not About Concessions, but Strategic Planning
China's trade with developing countries (the "Global South") accounts for 51% of its total trade, reflecting market diversification. By 2025, trade with ASEAN is expected to reach $1.1 trillion, and trade with Africa will be $350 billion (35 times that of 2000). Starting in May 2026, China will implement zero tariffs on goods from 53 African countries. This is not a gesture of goodwill or concession but part of a strategic plan to help develop local manufacturing, increase product value, and integrate these countries into the global supply chain, while also providing China with more stable markets.
5. The WTO Multilateral System: The Old Order Has Collapsed, but New Rules Have Not Yet Been Established
The WTO is facing significant challenges: geopolitical conflicts are eroding the foundation for multilateral cooperation, and the gap between developing and developed countries is widening. The rise of "bilateralism" (temporary cooperation among a few countries) indicates difficulty in reaching global consensus. However, this also presents an opportunity for reform. Chong Quan emphasizes that maintaining a rule-based multilateral system is more important than ever, as the old order has disappeared and the new one has not yet been established.
Conclusion
The global order is in a period of reconstruction. The US's actions are increasing instability, but China, with its resilience in energy, cooperation with developing countries, and managed competition with Europe and the US, is becoming a stabilizing force in the global economy. The key to the future lies in establishing fairer and more inclusive new rules as the old order collapses.