Summary of Key Points
This article argues that China will not experience a brief “death peak” in the future, but rather enter a prolonged “death plateau” – where high mortality rates will remain stable and difficult to reduce. This phenomenon is primarily driven by the aging population, fueled by three major factors: the aging of the baby boom generation, increased life expectancy leading to deaths concentrated among the elderly, and low birth rates that contribute to maintaining high mortality levels. The article suggests that individuals and society need to prepare in advance by changing their attitudes, planning for retirement, and adjusting public services accordingly.
1. Don’t Confuse a “Death Peak” with a “Death Plateau”: One is a Temporary Fluctuation, the Other is a Long-Term Trend
Many people assume that future death rates will surge and then decline (a peak), but the article clarifies that this is not the case. A death peak is like a rollercoaster: for example, during difficult times in the past, death rates increased suddenly and then quickly dropped. In contrast, a death plateau means that rates rise and remain high for an extended period – from 2025 to 2050, the number of deaths per 1,000 people is expected to increase from 8 to around 14, and this level will persist without decline. Simply put, a peak is a temporary event, while a plateau represents a new normal for the next few decades.
2. The Aging Population Is the Main Driver of the “Death Plateau”: 95% of Deaths Will Be Among the Elderly
The age structure of the death population explains this trend:
- Fewer young people are dying: In 2020, less than 9% of deaths occurred among those under 50 years old; by 2060, this proportion will drop to just over 1%. The proportion of deaths among people aged 50–64 also decreased from 18% to 3.8%.
- The elderly account for an increasing share of deaths: In 2020, 73% of deaths were among those aged 65 and above; by 2060, this will rise to 95%. This means that only 5 out of every 100 deceased people will be under the age of 65.
- The proportion of very elderly individuals (over 80 years old) is even more significant: In 2020, 37% of deaths were among this group; by 2060, it will rise to 74%. Essentially, the “death plateau” is characterized by a concentrated increase in deaths among the elderly.
3. Three Major Factors Contribute to the “Death Plateau”: the Baby Boom, Longer Life Expectancy, and Low Birth Rates
These three factors work together to drive up mortality rates:
- The baby boom generation provided a large base of potential retirees: Over 20 million people were born each year in the 1960s and 1970s. As this group enters old age over the next 30 years, it will significantly increase death rates. Even if fewer babies are born in the future, the size of this population will still maintain high mortality levels.
- Longer life expectancy has led to a buildup of deaths: Life expectancy at birth was only 40 years in the early days of the People’s Republic of China; it is now 79 years and expected to reach 85 by 2060. Medical advances have reduced mortality from infantile diseases and sudden accidents in middle age, resulting in more people living to old age and dying naturally.
- Low birth rates “lock in” high mortality rates: Currently, fewer than 8 million babies are born each year, while deaths exceed 10 million. As the total population declines, the death rate will remain high relative to this smaller base – for example, a death rate of 10 per 1,000 people is higher than one of 8 per 1,000.
4. What Should We Do in the Face of the “Death Plateau”? – Both Individuals and Society Need to Take Action
- At the Individual Level:
- Change attitudes: Embrace the concept of death and seek education about end-of-life care.
- Plan for retirement: Prepare financial resources to avoid financial difficulties in old age.
- Maintain good health: Exercise regularly and undergo regular check-ups to extend your “healthy lifespan” (it’s not just about living longer, but living with quality).
- At the Social Level:
- Adjust medical resources: Build more hospitals and nursing homes for the elderly, and reduce unnecessary intensive treatments for the very old.
- Develop a geriatric economy: Create products and services suitable for older adults (such as anti-slip flooring and smart walking aids).
- Improve policies: Ensure that pension systems are sufficient to support the needs of the elderly, and provide community services such as meal delivery and home care.
This article serves as a reminder that aging is not a distant issue but a current reality. By preparing in advance, we can better cope with the challenges ahead.