Summary of Key Points
The core message of this news is as follows: The continuous decline in the birth rate has led to a "step-by-step" reduction in the number of students at all educational stages. The teaching profession, once considered the "most secure job," is now experiencing a shift from expansion over the past few decades to contraction. Kindergarten and elementary school teachers have already seen a decrease in numbers, and in the future, there will be nearly 2 million excess teachers in the compulsory education sector, with significant reductions in teacher recruitment across the country. However, high schools and universities are still expanding due to policy initiatives or increased enrollment. The government has proposed solutions such as implementing smaller class sizes, integrating early childhood care with schooling, and reassigning teachers.
I. Step-by-Step Reduction in Student Numbers: The Direct Cause of Reversal in Teacher Demand
The fundamental reason for the decrease in the number of teachers is the significant reduction in the birth rate, which has resulted in a decline in the total number of students. Over the past decade, China's birth population has dropped from over 18 million to 7.92 million, leading to a peak and subsequent decline in the number of students at each educational stage:
- Kindergartens have been hit the hardest: The number of kindergarten teachers has decreased by 632,000 (a nearly 20% reduction) in the past three years, as the current kindergarten children were born three years ago when the birth rate began to plummet.
- Elementary schools are next: The number of elementary school teachers has decreased by 198,000 in the past two years, corresponding to a decline in the number of children born six years ago.
- Junior high schools are approaching a turning point: Although enrollment is still increasing, the peak in student numbers will be reached this year, and teacher demand will begin to decline by 2027 at the latest.
- High schools and universities are temporarily safe: High schools are seeing increased demand due to policies that eliminate the mandatory transition to vocational schools, while universities are expanding as various regions build "double first-class" institutions. The turning point for high schools is expected around 2034.
II. Excess Teachers in the Compulsory Education Sector Expected in the Next 10 Years
According to predictions by a team from Beijing Normal University, by 2035, there will be an excess of 1.5 million teachers in elementary schools and 370,000 in junior high schools, totaling nearly 2 million in the compulsory education sector alone. This prediction is based on the assumption that the student-teacher ratio remains unchanged. If the current ratio is maintained (e.g., 1 teacher for every 20 students), fewer students will mean more teachers are needed. For example, if a school originally had 1,000 students and required 50 teachers, with only 500 students remaining, only 25 teachers would be needed, resulting in an excess of 25 teachers.
III. Proof of the Shrinkage of the "Secure Job": Recruitment Cuts of Up to 50%
The contraction of teaching positions is not just theoretical; recruitment plans have been significantly reduced across the country:
- In Hubei, the number of elementary and secondary school teacher recruits in 2026 has decreased by 52.8% compared to the previous year.
- Jiangxi has an even more dramatic reduction: Only 1,190 teachers will be recruited in 2026, compared to 7,821 in 2023, a decrease of over 80%.
- Some regions have completely halted recruitment or frozen staffing positions.
There are significant regional differences:
- Regions with declining populations and lower birth rates (such as Heilongjiang) are experiencing the fastest reductions, with elementary school teacher numbers already down by 8.37%.
- Developed regions with inflowing populations (such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai) are still expanding slightly, but this is only a temporary reprieve, as the national trend of declining birth rates will eventually affect them all.
IV. Three Approaches to Alleviate the Excess Teacher Situation
If the birth rate does not improve in the short term, "increasing demand" and "optimizing resource allocation" are necessary solutions:
1. Smaller class sizes: Reducing the number of students per class (e.g., from 40 to 30) would create more teaching positions. However, many schools in rural areas already have small classes, and implementing smaller class sizes requires additional classrooms and funding, which may not be feasible for all regions.
2. Integrating early childhood care with schooling: With the number of kindergarten children decreasing from 48 million to 32 million, enrolling 2-year-old children would increase the student population by about 8 million, potentially stabilizing the jobs of tens of thousands of kindergarten teachers. The national "15th Five-Year Plan" supports this approach.
3. Reassigning teachers: Excess elementary school teachers can be transferred to junior high schools or other public institutions. For example, Ezhou in Hubei has reduced its elementary school staffing by 500 and reallocated these teachers to junior high schools.
Final Remark: The "Secure Job" Is No Longer Guaranteed
Although teaching is a stable career with salaries comparable to those of civil servants, the inevitable contraction of teaching positions due to declining student numbers means that teachers must be prepared for changes. In addition to relying on the system, they should also develop skills in other areas to remain adaptable. After all, there are no jobs that remain "secure" forever; only individuals who can adapt to change will thrive in this environment.