虎嗅

The first winners of the AI era all got this 0.02% difficult question right.

原文:AI时代的第一批赢家,都答对了这个0.02%的真问题

Summary of Key Points

AI technology has broken down the barriers between "conceiving an idea" and "creating a product," enabling ordinary people to quickly develop apps and other products. However, the explosive growth on the supply side (414,000 new apps launched globally in the first quarter of 2026) has created a sharp contradiction with the rigid constraints on the demand side (limited user time and phone storage space), resulting in 99.98% of products going unnoticed. This situation echoes the "Jevons Paradox" that emerged 160 years ago: increased efficiency has led to more intense competition; knowledge has evolved from a tool for making money to a basic infrastructure. What is truly scarce now is not the ability to create something, but the ability to present new insights and meanings that can capture people's attention and stay in their memories. Finally, five directions for value creation in the AI era are proposed to help individuals find new competitive advantages.

1. AI Makes It Possible for Everyone to Create Products, But 99.98% of Them Go Unsold

AI acts like a "universal key," compressing the process of developing apps, writing copy, and designing from months to just days or hours. For example, Eli Cohen used AI to create a meditation app in just a few weeks, saying, "The wall between an idea and a product has fallen." But behind this fall of barriers lies a harsh reality:

  • Exponential Supply: 414,000 new apps were launched globally in the first quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 115%, with the number of updates tripling compared to the previous year.
  • Rigid Demand: Users only have 24 hours a day, and their phone screens can display a limited number of apps; their attention is already occupied by popular platforms like WeChat and TikTok.
  • Fierce Competition: Out of all the apps released, only 118 in the United States achieved high traction (with over 50,000 downloads), accounting for just 0.02%. The rest simply go unnoticed—like shouting in a crowded market with no response.

2. Does Higher Efficiency Lead to More Intense Competition? The Paradox of Coal Reappears Today

This is not an accident; economics has long provided an explanation: the "Jevons Paradox." In 1865, British economist William Stanley Jevons observed that although Watt's improvements to the steam engine increased coal efficiency, Britain's total coal consumption actually increased tenfold. This was because coal became cheaper, leading to its widespread use in industries like railways, steelmaking, and shipping.

AI is the "steam engine of the digital age":

  • The efficiency of writing code and designing has increased by 100 times; what was once unfeasible is now possible, and many new directions can be explored.
  • The result is not a decrease in the number of products but an overwhelming surplus, creating a "sea of noise."
  • More importantly, the value of individual products has decreased. Just as coal itself is not valuable; what matters is what can be created with it—products with unique value.

3. Why Can't Professional Knowledge Make Money Any Longer? Four Pillars of Profit Have Collapsed

In the past, doctors, lawyers, and designers could make money because they possessed specialized knowledge that others did not, allowing them to deliver results faster. This profit structure relied on four pillars:

1. Information Access: You might spend days researching, while AI can gather it in seconds.

2. Professional Language Translation: You might need to translate technical terms into plain language; AI can do this instantly.

3. Comprehensive Solutions: You might piece together fragmented information to create a plan; AI can do it more thoroughly.

4. Expert Authority: Customers might prefer AI-generated plans over ones created by humans, as they are often better.

Now, knowledge that can be coded and replicated has become a basic resource—like water and electricity. Having the ability to use it does not necessarily mean you are better; what matters is how you apply it.

4. AI Can Do Everything, But It Cannot Create Something That Captures People's Attention

AI can generate code, copywriting, and images, but it cannot create "chiddush"—a Jewish term referring to the ability to see new insights from existing materials. For example, a learning room is not truly effective if people just read books and discuss without generating new ideas; an app is not a product if its features are complete yet fail to resonate with users.

AI provides the raw materials (code, copy), but what users want is the final result—a product that has been carefully crafted. Creating such products requires human experience, such as knowing the right techniques and understanding user needs.

5. How to Find Value in the AI Era? Five Directions for Transformation

Since creating a product is no longer the ultimate goal, where should we focus our efforts? These five areas offer practical paths for ordinary people:

1. From Quantity to Quality: AI makes it possible to do everything, but learning to say no is crucial—focus on what you truly understand.

2. From Information to Critical Thinking: While AI provides answers, the real value lies in knowing how to ask questions and discerning which ones are credible.

3. From Skills to Storytelling: Skills may be automated, but your unique way of thinking and reasoning is irreplaceable.

4. From Content Creation to Building a Legacy: Each output should contribute to a long-term asset—build a brand by consistently producing valuable content.

5. From Product Development to Community Building: Create spaces where people with similar interests can connect.

In Conclusion

AI has lowered the barriers to creating products, but the bar for making them stand out has risen. The new rule of the game is not "who can create," but "who can make users say, 'This is different.'" Whether you use AI to produce wheat or bread, it all depends on how you apply its power.

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(Note: The 2026 figures in the text are hypothetical projections used to illustrate trends.)