虎嗅

From "Catching Spies" to "Kung Fu Women's Football": When Will the Extreme Programming Season Ever End?

原文:从《抓特务》到《功夫女足》,极限定档几时休?

Summary of Key Points

Recently, the film industry has seen an increase in "ultra-short release schedules" (movies being released within very tight time frames, such as Stephen Chow's "Kung Fu Women's Football," which was only available for 5 days) and "advance releases." This change reflects a shift in the underlying logic of traditional marketing strategies: audiences no longer plan their movie watching in advance; their decisions are more immediate and rely on word-of-mouth. Marketing expenses have decreased, shifting from a "wide-reaching" approach to a more "targeted" one. However, this transformation is particularly detrimental to low-budget films and art-house productions, which struggle to build momentum due to the lack of time to generate positive reviews.

1. Have Ultra-Short Release Schedules Become the New Norm? Industry Players Are Already Used to It

In the past, ultra-short release schedules were occasional crises (for example, "The Youth You" in 2019 was released after just 3 days). Now, they have become the norm: Stephen Chow's "Kung Fu Women's Football" had a 5-day release, and Feng Xiaogang's "Catching the Spy" was released a week earlier. Why isn't everyone panicked?

  • Marketing Companies: They prepare all the necessary materials (trailers, posters, etc.) in advance, and after the release date is set, they simply need to adjust the schedule and release the content in a concentrated manner.
  • Theatres: They no longer prioritize certain movies when scheduling screenings, as audience decisions are made later (pre-sale results no longer affect screening schedules). Regardless of the release date, cinemas decide based on the film's lineup and past performance.
  • Industry Attitude: The declining market has forced everyone to adapt—ultra-short release schedules used to disrupt scheduling and material distribution, but now companies have learned to remain flexible.

2. Audiences Have Changed: They No Longer Plan in Advance and Buy Tickets Based on Reviews

Previously, audiences would plan their movie watching months in advance. Now, the situation is reversed:

  • Data Trends: In 2023, there were 44 fewer movies with pre-sales exceeding 1 million compared to 2019. This year, only two films during the Spring Festival season had pre-sales of over 100 million (in previous years, top films easily reached this milestone).
  • Immediate Decision-Making: Audiences wait until the last minute to decide; they check the app on weekends to see what movies are available and buy tickets if the reviews are good.
  • Traditional Marketing Strategies Are Ineffective: The traditional approach of "letting people know about the movie first → generating interest → encouraging purchases" no longer works because audiences do not pay attention before the release and rely solely on post-release reviews.

3. The Shift in Marketing Logic: From Excessive Spending to Targeted Strategies

In the past, film marketing costs could reach tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. Now, producers are saving money to invest in the actual production. Marketing strategies have changed:

  • Cost Efficiency: Materials have shifted from large-scale promotions and merchandise to simpler items like paper posters.
  • Targeted Approaches: Instead of trying to reach everyone, films target specific audiences (for example, "The Back Room" aims at young viewers to avoid negative reviews from unsuitable audiences).
  • Word-of-Mouth Is King: High-quality reviews are more effective than aggressive marketing; films like "The Octagonal Cage" and "A Letter to Grandma" succeeded due to initial positive feedback, but this success is based on the film's quality, not marketing tactics.

4. The Crucial Moment for Low-Budget Films: Ultra-Short Release Schedules Are a Death Knell

While ultra-short release schedules may be a benefit for big-budget films (with strong casts that attract cinemas), they are a disaster for low-budget and art-house productions:

  • Need for Time to Build Momentum: These films lack star power and rely on film festivals and limited screenings to spread word-of-mouth (for example, "Zhou Chu Eliminates the Three Plagues" succeeded through limited screenings in ten cities). Ultra-short release schedules cut off this process.
  • Scheduling Disadvantages: Cinemas prefer to screen high-budget films with higher ticket sales; low-budget films may only get 1-2 showings.
  • Increasing Survival Pressure: Advance releases risk competing with big-budget films, while delayed releases may result in poor box office performance. Ultra-short release schedules completely eliminate the opportunity to connect with audiences, potentially leading to market elimination.

Conclusion

Although ultra-short release schedules may not become the new standard, the reduction in marketing expenses and shorter production cycles is a reality. For the industry, the more pressing long-term issue is how to protect the survival of low-budget films beyond adopting targeted marketing strategies. After all, a film market cannot rely solely on big-budget movies; diversity is essential for its vitality.