Summary of Key Points
The summer heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere in 2026 came early and were intense, with many regions in Eurasia breaking temperature records. Several authoritative climate agencies have warned that a strong El Niño event is likely to occur in the second half of this year (and could be one of the strongest in nearly 140 years). Coupled with global warming, 2026 is very likely to become the hottest year on record. At the same time, climate risks are impacting the economy in various ways: reduced agricultural production, decreased labor efficiency, and rising food prices that drive inflation, with low-income countries being the most affected. The international community has already initiated emergency measures, but developed countries still need to fulfill their commitments to provide climate assistance.
Detailed Analysis
1. A Strong El Niño Is Approaching, Possibly One of the Strongest in Nearly 140 Years
El Niño is simply a phenomenon where the Pacific Ocean water temperatures rise abnormally, disrupting the global climate (making some areas hotter and others prone to heavy rainfall). Multiple agencies have issued “red alerts”:
- World Meteorological Organization: El Niño has already begun and is likely to intensify over the next few months, with a probability of lasting until early 2027 exceeding 90%.
- NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): There is an 81% chance of an “extreme El Niño” in the fourth quarter of this year.
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: This could be one of the strongest El Niños in nearly 140 years.
- Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center: The probability of a strong El Niño in the second half of the year is 100%.
What’s more concerning is that a strong El Niño could cause global temperatures to rise by an additional 0.1–0.2°C. With existing global warming, 2026 is likely to break the temperature record set in 2024 (which already temporarily exceeded the 1.5°C warming target set by the Paris Agreement).
2. Global Warming Is Accelerating, and the Earth’s “Fever” Is Getting Worse
The pace of global warming is faster than expected:
- Elevated Greenhouse Gas Levels: Carbon dioxide concentrations are 50% higher than before industrialization, and levels of methane and nitrous oxide have also reached record highs. These gases act like a “blanket,” trapping heat on Earth.
- Excess Heat Accumulation: The Earth absorbs more solar energy than it radiates back into space (a phenomenon known as an “energy imbalance”), similar to how a person’s body temperature rises when they have a fever.
- Ocean Heating: Oceans are major stores of heat; in June, the global average sea surface temperature approached 21°C, setting a new record. Warmer oceans exacerbate extreme weather events (such as more powerful typhoons).
June this year was the hottest month in Western Europe and the second-hottest globally. Surface temperatures were more than 5°C higher than usual for temperate maritime climates, indicating abnormal heat.
3. Climate Risks Impacting the Economy
The effects of extreme weather and El Niño on the economy are widespread:
- Reduced Agricultural Production: High temperatures and droughts cause annual losses of $20 billion in crops such as corn, wheat, and soybeans. If emissions are not reduced, these costs could increase to $160 billion by 2030, with Asia being the most affected region for grain production.
- Decreased Labor Efficiency: High temperatures can slow down workers’ productivity (for example, outdoor workers are more prone to heatstroke). The International Labour Organization estimates that this could result in global losses of $2.4 trillion by 2030, equivalent to 2.2% of the world’s GDP.
- Rising Food Prices and Inflation: El Niño drives up the prices of food and vegetable oils, making it unaffordable for low-income countries. This can also disrupt supply chains. The IMF warns that the number of people facing hunger could increase by 50 million by 2060, threatening social stability.
4. How Is the International Community Responding? Both Money and Action Are Needed
The international community is taking action, but more is still required:
- Emergency Funds: The United Nations has set up a special fund of $100 million, with $20 million already allocated to six high-risk countries (for activities such as improving water infrastructure and stockpiling food).
- Appeals for Assistance: UN Secretary-General António Guterres is calling on developed countries to fulfill their commitment of providing $100 billion in annual climate assistance from 10 years ago. This funding is crucial for helping developing countries adapt to disasters and reduce emissions.
- Market Preparations: Governments and companies are beginning to anticipate the impact of El Niño on agricultural prices, such as stockpiling food or adjusting supply chains.
In summary, climate issues are no longer just a matter for the future; they are already affecting our wallets and food supplies.