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"First Thinking" Volume 03: Antropic Price Increases: As Higher-Level AI Becomes More Expensive, Is It Really More Difficult for Ordinary People to Improve Their Situation?

原文:《第一性思考》Vol.03 Anthropic涨价:当高等级AI变贵,普通人其实更难翻身?

Summary of Key Points

Anthropic has announced that it will charge additional fees for its advanced AI model, Claude Fable 5, in 2026. This is more than just a simple “software price increase”; it marks the transition of intelligence becoming a resource that can be purchased on a pay-as-you-go basis, much like water or electricity. In the future, the difference between ordinary people and wealthy individuals will no longer lie in whether they have AI or not, but in the level of AI they possess. The free version will only be capable of performing simple tasks, while the paid versions will serve as office assistants. The top-tier AI models will be cognitive enhancement systems equipped with private data and teams of agents. This disparity could create a vicious cycle: the wealthy buy more intelligent services, which in turn generate more money, allowing them to purchase even more advanced AI. However, it also opens up business opportunities for affordable AI solutions. Additionally, society needs to work towards making high-quality AI available as a public resource (for example, schools providing access to these models) to reduce this gap.

The Nature of AI Pricing: Intelligence as a “Pay-As-You-Go Utility”

In the past, software was purchased either monthly or as a one-time fee (such as video subscription services). However, Anthropic’s new pricing model changes this: even for subscribed users, using advanced models for complex tasks (like reading thousands of pages of material or writing code) will incur additional costs based on usage. It’s similar to how your water and electricity bills work—the more you use, the more you pay.

Why is this necessary? Because processing complex tasks with AI is extremely resource-intensive; it requires a lot of computing power and time for the models to perform their functions. For instance, using a free AI model to write an email might be sufficient, but analyzing the financial reports of 10 companies and generating a report would require hundreds of times more computational effort, resulting in significantly higher costs.

This means that intelligence is no longer a one-time investment that lasts a lifetime; it has become a consumable, similar to utilities. You pay for the amount of “brainpower” you need to use.

The New Divide: Not Whether You Have AI, but What Kind of AI You Use

In the future, almost everyone will have access to AI, but the quality of the AI they use will vary greatly:

  • Ordinary people: Will use the free version, which has limitations and can only be used for simple tasks like data research and writing.
  • Mid-level users: Will spend $20 per month using AI as an office assistant to help with tasks such as report writing and data organization.
  • Wealthy individuals/Companies: Will invest $200 or more in top-tier AI models, along with private databases and teams of AI assistants, to handle complex tasks around the clock (such as analyzing industry trends and making business decisions automatically).

This is similar to the education system: while compulsory education ensures that everyone has access to schooling, there are still differences between prestigious schools, private tutors, and those with family resources. With AI, basic capabilities will be free, but the best services will always come at a cost. On the surface, everyone has access to AI, but in reality, there will be a significant difference in the quality of the experience.

The Fearful Cycle: The Wealthy Buy Intelligence, Which Generates More Money

Previously, there was a step between having money and being capable—you needed to learn on your own (e.g., reading books or hiring the best teachers). AI has shortened this process. Top-tier AI not only provides information but also helps with problem-solving, organizing thoughts, and even offers personalized recommendations based on user habits.

For example, a boss uses top-tier AI to analyze the market and identifies a new opportunity, earning $100,000. With that money, they buy more advanced AI, which leads to even more earnings, creating a cycle of “wealth → buying more intelligent services → earning more money.” Ordinary people, on the other hand, are limited by the free AI and struggle to move up in society.

Opportunities for Ordinary People: AI as the Cheapest “External Help”

AI can indeed be helpful for ordinary people. For instance, free AI can help them identify key points in contracts or teach them how to code. However, wealthy individuals can use advanced AI to make significant progress, potentially closing the gap between them and the wealthy.

Possible Solutions to Reduce the Gap: Affordable AI Services and Public Resources

There are two approaches to narrowing this gap:

1. Affordable AI solutions: Not all tasks require top-tier models. Simple tasks can be handled by lower-cost models, while more complex ones can be managed by advanced models. In the future, there will be “AI purchasing managers” to help users choose the most cost-effective services. Open-source models, mobile-based AI (that run on devices without additional costs), and affordable AI platforms will make high-quality AI accessible to everyone.

2. Public resource allocation: Similar to how libraries provide free books, schools or governments could offer access to top-tier AI models for everyone. For example, students could use these models to research and analyze data for their papers, ensuring that financial constraints do not hinder their progress.

Technology itself does not guarantee equality, but society can choose to make AI a public utility, available to all, rather than a tool for the wealthy to leverage for their own gain.

The Real Concern of the AI Era

The real concern is not that machines will become smarter than humans, but that intelligence becomes a commodity that can be bought and sold. The wealthy will use it to amass even more wealth, making it increasingly difficult for ordinary people to improve their situation. The question we need to address is how to make high-quality AI a universal resource, just like compulsory education, so that everyone has equal access to its benefits.

In summary, the shift in AI pricing and usage represents a significant change in society. It highlights the potential for a new wealth gap based on access to intelligent services, and it raises the question of how we can ensure that everyone has equal opportunities to benefit from this technology.