Summary of Key Points
The recent escalation in military conflicts between the United States and Iran has triggered crises in two vital oil shipping lanes in the Middle East: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, with Iran threatening to permanently close it; the Strait of Mandeb is at risk of being blocked due to intensified tensions between Yemen's Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia. These two straits are critical for global oil transportation, and the crises have directly pushed up international oil prices (Brent crude has exceeded $90 per barrel), affecting shipping companies' decisions. They also reveal the strategic maneuvers of the involved parties (Iran, the US, the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia). Trump's inconsistent statements regarding tolls on these straits have added to the confusion.
Detailed Analysis
1. The Strait of Hormuz: Iran "Holdings the World's Oil Supply by the Throat"
The Strait of Hormuz is the main artery for global oil transportation, with approximately 30% of all seaborne oil passing through it (meaning one out of every three barrels of oil transported by sea goes via this route). Iran has now stated that it will keep the strait closed as long as the United States continues to provoke it, and traffic has indeed dropped to zero. Iran has also designated only the routes on its side as "safe passages," which require its permission to use. The US encourages ships to use the southern route closer to Oman, but recently, few have dared to take the risk; on the 16th, only eight ships passed, and seven of them chose the routes approved by Iran.
Why is Iran so resolute? Because the US military has been attacking Iran for nine consecutive days, and since Iran cannot defeat the US directly on its own territory, it uses the strait as a weapon to pressure the US and force countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil to stop their aggression.
2. The Strait of Mandeb: Saudi Arabia's "Backup Route" Is Also at Risk
With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on the Strait of Mandeb as a backup for oil transportation. This strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is another crucial route for transporting oil to Europe and Asia (for example, Saudi oil is loaded at ports in the Red Sea and then shipped through the Strait of Mandeb to the Indian Ocean). However, this backup route is now under threat: Yemen's Houthi rebels (allies of Iran) have threatened to block the strait. Iran previously told the Houthis that if the US attacked Iran's power infrastructure, they would seal off the strait. Recently, Saudi airstrikes on Houthi-controlled airports led to retaliatory actions by the Houthis, escalating the conflict.
To utilize this backup route, Saudi Arabia has increased oil loading capacity at the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea to 4.7 million barrels per day (a 40% increase), but if the Strait of Mandeb is closed, Saudi Arabia's oil exports would be completely cut off.
3. Oil Prices Exceed $90: Ordinary People Will Face Higher Fuel Costs
The crisis in the straits has directly driven up oil prices, with Brent crude futures breaking through $90 per barrel. The reason is that markets fear that both straits could be blocked, leading to a reduction in oil supply and thus higher prices. For ordinary people, this means: (1) more expensive fuel (domestic gasoline prices may increase); (2) rising costs of daily necessities (oil is used as a raw material for plastics, fertilizers, and chemical products, so price increases will be passed on to consumer goods such as plastic bags and food).
4. Iran's "Strait Tactics": Using the Routes as a Weapon, But with Significant Risks
Iran's strategy is to use its weaker position to counter the US's military power by blocking energy routes. It aims to: (1) undermine US allies in the Middle East (such as Saudi Arabia, which relies on oil imports); (2) put pressure on the global community (since all countries depend on Middle Eastern oil, they will be forced to persuade the US to stop the conflict). However, there are significant risks: if both straits are blocked, it could trigger a global energy crisis, leading to dissatisfaction among countries like China and Europe, who might unite against Iran. The US could also respond more aggressively, further escalating the conflict.
5. Trump's "Toll Drama": Promises Unfulfilled
On the 13th, Trump suddenly announced plans to impose a 20% toll on goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it would compensate for the costs of protecting US allies in the Middle East. The next day, he changed his mind and suggested that Gulf countries sign trade agreements instead. This exposes two issues: (1) Trump's decision-making is arbitrary; (2) the US is wary of imposing tolls as they could lead to international tensions—the straits do not belong to the US, and such measures might only make other countries more hostile towards it, potentially helping Iran.
Conclusion
This crisis in the straits is essentially an extension of the conflict between the US and Iran. Iran is using the blockade of energy routes as a means to pressure the US, while the global energy market and ordinary people are the innocent parties affected. If the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise, leading to increased costs in our lives.