Summary of Key Points
The Peking University Guanghua International Media Salon focused on "China's Economic Structural Transformation and Prospects under Global Changes." Three scholars offered critical insights from different perspectives: Liu Qiao suggested that the logic of economic growth should shift from "infrastructure/investment in fixed assets" to "investment in people" (such as education and healthcare) and the use of AI to empower traditional industries, in order to break the cycle of "low prices, low profits, and low incomes." Tang Yao emphasized that expanding service sector consumption and deeply integrating manufacturing into the global supply chain are key pathways for structural breakthroughs. Han Pengfei analyzed that the Sino-US technological competition is characterized by differentiated areas of strength, and China needs to advance from "engineering-driven innovation" to "science-driven innovation." He also recommended optimizing local assessment systems and adjusting fiscal and monetary policies to boost domestic demand.
Detailed Analysis
1. A Major Shift in Growth Logic: Stop Focusing on Physical Investments and Invest in People and AI
In the past, we relied on building high-speed railways and factories to drive economic growth, but the effectiveness of such "physical investments" is diminishing. Professor Liu Qiao argues that in the future, money should be invested in people—through education to improve skills, healthcare for better health, and the service sector to enhance convenience in daily life. This represents the new underlying logic of economic growth.
Why? The current issue is that there is an overproduction of goods that consumers cannot afford. Physical consumption (such as household appliances and clothing) is nearly saturated, while service consumption (such as travel, fitness, and education) accounts for only 46%, compared to 70% in the United States. Residents' income as a percentage of GDP is also much lower at 43% compared to 67% in the US. Companies engage in price wars to sell products, resulting in low profits and stagnant employee wages, which in turn limits consumer spending and creates a vicious cycle.
The solutions are twofold: first, use AI to transform traditional industries (AI-related sectors account for only 17%; the remaining 83% of traditional industries, such as manufacturing and services, can improve efficiency with AI); second, increase residents' income to encourage them to consume more services. China has a complete industrial chain and numerous application scenarios (such as food delivery and ride-hailing), which provide unique opportunities for AI to be utilized.
2. The Service Sector Must Flourish, and Manufacturing Needs to Go Global
Associate Professor Tang Yao pointed out that the growth of China's economy mainly comes from the service sector. While physical consumption is largely saturated, there is still significant potential for service consumption—for example, organizing large-scale concerts and cultural events, or making it easier for small businesses (like tea houses and gyms) to enter the service industry. There is no need to worry about "de-linking" from the global economy; on the contrary, China is deeply integrated into it. Chinese factories not only supply goods globally but also export capacity and technology, such as renewable energy infrastructure (solar panels, power grids), and entire new energy vehicle production chains, helping other countries transition to cleaner energy. Globalization will not return to its previous state, but China remains a core player in the global industry, and companies must adapt to new rules to seize opportunities.
3. Sino-US Technology Competition is Not About Winning or Losing, but About Different Strengths
Associate Professor Han Pengfei explained that the Sino-US technological competition is about recognizing each country's strengths. The US leads in basic sciences (such as chips and biomedicine) and original theories, while China excels in "engineering integration" (such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, high-speed railways)—being able to combine various technologies for mass production and adapt them to specific contexts (e.g., mobile payments).
However, China has areas for improvement, such as the number of research papers published in top international journals like Nature and Science. By 2025, China aims to increase its contribution to these fields from the current 31% of the US's level. The future focus should be on shifting from "integrating others' technologies" to conducting independent basic research to foster mutual promotion of innovation and domestic demand.
Additionally, China has become the world's second-largest capital exporter (expected to surpass Japan by 2025), and its new energy transition has helped stabilize the economy and reduce international oil prices, contributing to global energy security.
4. Changes in Local Government Assessment: GDP Is No Longer the Only Metric; People's Welfare Matters More
Professor Liu Qiao recommends that local governments should no longer solely focus on GDP growth but also assess "residents' income" and "consumption." For example, instead of prioritizing factory construction, they should focus on increasing residents' wages and encouraging spending. Policies should also shift from supporting the production side (such as providing subsidies to factories) to boosting consumption—by issuing consumer vouchers and subsidizing education and healthcare to enable people to have and spend money.
The core message of this salon is that China's economy is transitioning from relying on physical investments to investing in people and innovation. By focusing on expanding the service sector, integrating manufacturing into the global market, leveraging AI, and advancing basic research, China can find new drivers of growth amidst global changes.