Summary of the Key Points
The central argument of this article is that the "release schedule mechanism" in the film industry has become ineffective. In the past, release schedules (such as the summer and Spring Festival seasons) were self-sustaining sources of traffic—movies released during these periods would naturally attract audiences due to the holidays. However, now the concept of a release schedule has become obsolete; it is only big-budget films or significant events that can draw people to theaters. The regular audience for movies has been stolen by short videos and streaming services, and the entire industry is competing for the "limited public attention available at specific times." Both film producers and theaters are adjusting their strategies in response to this change.
Detailed Analysis
1. The Decline of the Release Schedule Mechanism: From Self-Sustaining Traffic to Waiting for a Savior
In the past, release schedules were like prime locations in shopping malls—once a movie was scheduled for a particular period, it would naturally attract viewers. For example, during the summer season, students had nothing to do, and theaters were a must-visit destination; films like "Wolf Warrior 2" and "Nezha" benefited significantly from this timing.
But this year, the daily box office sales were around 100 million yuan in the first 40 days of the summer season, nearly 20% lower than the same period last year. Hundreds of movies were released at the same time with little interest from audiences until "Kung Fu Football Team" came out and boosted the overall box office to over 300 million yuan (accounting for 80% of that day's sales). This indicates that release schedules no longer generate their own traffic; they rely on big-budget films or events to attract viewers. It used to be the schedule that made a movie successful; now, it's the other way around—hundreds of movies wait for one film to bring in audiences and then perhaps benefit from its success.
2. Changes in Film Producers: From Planning Based on Schedules to Seeking Events to Generate Interest
Producers have largely abandoned traditional release schedules in favor of focusing on events. For instance, "Baxian!" was originally scheduled for July 24th but was moved up to July 18th just three days after the success of "Kung Fu Football Team." While officials claim it was due to audience demand, it's clear they were trying to capitalize on the momentum of that film. Producers are even creating their own events: when "Baxian!" premiered, they shared statistics like a 9.7 rating on Maoyan and a 55.2% attendance rate, and included the statement in their press releases that this was not part of a promotional campaign. They understand that audiences only go to theaters when there is something interesting happening—either by creating a buzz around a film without much promotion (like Stephen Chow's "zero-budget" marketing strategy) or by making positive reviews become news before the film's release.
3. The Spring Festival Season Is No Exception: It Relyes on Both Major and Minor Events
Some argue that the Spring Festival season is still thriving, but it too is driven by events. The festival itself is a major event, providing a reason for family gatherings and movie-watching traditions. However, its success also depends on minor events (big-budget films). For example, in 2025, "Nezha 2" brought in nearly a billion yuan, but in 2026, the lack of a similar film led to a 40% decline in box office revenue. The success of the Spring Festival season depends on a combination of major (the festival) and minor (big-budget films) events; without big-budget movies, it cannot thrive.
4. This Is Not Unique to the Film Industry: All Offline Entertainment Is Competing for Public Attention
This issue is not limited to the film industry. For example, in June 2026, national cable TV ratings increased by 13%, mainly driven by the World Cup—average viewership during the early morning hours rose by 11.4%, and 11.2% of those viewers had not watched live TV in the previous month. After the World Cup, this surge in viewership subsided. This is because daily time is already occupied by short videos and streaming services. Only events that require everyone to watch at the same time (like the World Cup or big-budget movies) can draw audiences from their screens to theaters and TVs.
5. The Survival Strategies of Various Stakeholders
- Medium-Budget Projects Suffer the Most: These films have moderate costs, neither generating significant interest nor benefiting from scheduled release periods, resulting in most of them failing to attract viewers.
- Theaters Must Diversify: Regulatory authorities have allowed theaters to sell coffee, host events, and engage in retail activities, recognizing that screenings no longer attract audiences on their own. Theaters must create reasons for people to visit, such as offering coffee while showing movies.
- Promotion Needs to Generate Events: Producers should stop focusing on which schedule to use and instead focus on creating events that can attract attention, even if it means unconventional methods like "zero-budget" promotions.
In Conclusion
The film industry has shifted from relying on release schedules to relying on events to attract audiences. If you want people to go to theaters, you need to create big news or build buzz around your films through positive reviews. Release schedules are no longer as valuable as they used to be.