Summary of the Key Points
This article focuses on the "contradictory reality" of China's meteorological economy: despite being a major meteorological country with vast territory, frequent disasters, and diverse demand scenarios, China remains a minor consumer in the meteorological sector, where it is difficult for companies to survive and the market size is limited. On one hand, there is an increasing societal need for sophisticated meteorological services (essential for outdoor activities, renewable energy, agriculture, and the low-altitude economy, among others). On the other hand, most of the related enterprises cannot make ends meet; out of 16,000 such companies, only about 3,000 are operating normally. The few successful cases (such as meteorology bloggers and satellite companies) represent a "survivor bias," as most companies face challenges such as a lack of payment habits and an underdeveloped market. Compared to mature markets in Europe and the United States, what China lacks is not technology or demand, but a market environment that allows these technologies to be monetized. Although AI offers new hope, fundamental breakthroughs still require reforms in the meteorological sector.
Detailed Analysis
1. Demand for Precision, Supply That Can Only Provide Approximations – The Embarrassing Mismatch
People's weather needs have evolved beyond simple questions like "Will it rain tomorrow?" For example:
- Outdoor enthusiasts need precise forecasts for specific locations at specific times (e.g., whether there will be a heavy storm on a certain mountain at 3 PM).
- Renewable energy plants require predictions of wind speeds to calculate power generation.
- Drones operating at low altitudes need to know about potential turbulence.
- Agriculture needs weather warnings for pest and disease outbreaks.
However, these sophisticated demands are not met by the current meteorological services. Surprisingly, despite this high demand, only a small number of companies (about 3,000 out of 16,000) are thriving. This is a clear case of supply mismatch: there is a lack of what is needed, while existing products go unsold.
2. A Few Success Stories, but Most Face Challenges – The Traps of the Survivor Bias
You may have seen meteorology bloggers on platforms like Bilibili (who travel thousands of kilometers in five years and rely on traffic and brand partnerships) or individuals like Teacher Su on REDnote who sell travel weather information for a fee. There are also satellite companies like Yunyao Aerospace that have raised significant funding. However, these are exceptions:
- The app "Miji Weather" has 700 million users but relies on advertising and has failed two IPO attempts.
- A company called Heteritian provided meteorological services for the game "Shanghai Fortress," but its operations were unsuccessful.
- Another radar company with advanced technology generates most of its revenue (80%) from a state-owned client, making its income unstable.
These examples show that only a minority of companies in the industry are actually making money.
3. Why Is the Meteorological Business Profitable? Two Major Barriers
The difficulty in making a profit in the meteorological sector stems from two main issues:
- Lack of payment habits: Both businesses and individuals assume that weather information should be free, similar to the belief that one should not have to pay for bean buns as a membership fee.
- Underdeveloped Market: State-owned meteorological units control key resources (basic data) and offer both public services and commercial products. Private companies must cooperate with them, incurring additional costs. For example, a radar company's largest client is a state-owned entity, and any changes in this relationship can be detrimental to the company's stability.
4. Why Are European and American Meteorological Markets More Successful? They Play by Different Rules
The logic behind their markets is different from China's:
- Governments provide basic free weather forecasts (funded by public money).
- Private companies can access basic data at low costs to develop commercial services.
- This creates a cycle where data openness leads to competition, user payment, and ultimately profit.
For instance, The Weather Company in the U.S. has 250,000 weather stations serving 5,000 companies, while WNI in Japan provides services for 6,000 ships and 7,000 flights. In the U.S., weather app subscriptions generated over $90 million in 2023. Users are willing to pay for essential services (such as extreme weather warnings) and improved efficiency (precise forecasts down to specific streets).
5. Can AI Save the Meteorological Economy? Hope Is There, but Real Reforms Are Needed
AI offers potential solutions:
- The Chinese Meteorological Administration has developed AI models like "Fengqing" and "Fenglei" for short-term and medium-term weather forecasting.
- Private companies use AI for low-altitude weather and energy predictions, even exporting their services (e.g., Shanghai's urban warning system).
- AI can reduce costs and improve forecast accuracy.
However, AI is not a panacea. If people are still unwilling to pay and institutional barriers remain, even advanced AI will not solve the problems. Fundamental reforms are necessary: opening up data, allowing fair competition among private companies, and fostering payment habits. Otherwise, no amount of AI will save the meteorological businesses from their current struggles.
In Conclusion
What China's meteorological economy lacks is not good weather or technology, but a market environment that enables these technologies to generate revenue. Without reforms, even AI will not be able to turn things around.
(End of article)