Summary of Key Points
The core focus of the 15th Five-Year Plan for renewable energy is a shift from merely expanding capacity to prioritizing both quality and reliability. While it aims to maintain growth in installed capacity (with the total wind and solar power capacity reaching over 2.8 billion kilowatts by 2030, accounting for more than 50% of the national power generation), the plan also seeks to address issues such as unreliable power supply and excess energy production. This is achieved through enhancing the capability of wind and solar power to provide stable output during critical periods on the grid (with new indicators like guaranteed output), expanding non-electric uses (such as hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol production), and innovating technical mechanisms (including energy storage and virtual power plants), thereby transforming renewable energy from a supplementary source to a primary one.
1. Wind and Solar Power Capacity Targeting 2.8 Billion Kilowatts: Both Centralized and Distributed Approaches
The plan sets a ambitious goal for wind and solar power capacity by 2030: over 2.8 billion kilowatts, more than doubling the current level, accounting for more than half of the national power generation. This will be accomplished through two main strategies:
- Centralized Approaches: Utilizing Desert and Arid Regions
The deserts, gobi, and barren areas in the northwest and north China are rich in renewable energy resources. The plan calls for an additional 370 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity to be installed in these regions, with each of the six designated bases having specific roles. For example, the Xinjiang base will support high-energy-consuming industries, the Yellow River bend areas will revitalize coal mining subsidence zones for industrial transformation, and the Songliao base will explore the use of wind and solar power to produce hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol.
- Distributed Approaches: Rural Rooftops as New Growth Points
The central and southeastern regions, with their large populations and high electricity demand, are suitable for distributed photovoltaic systems (e.g., rooftop installations). The plan targets an additional 300 million kilowatts of capacity in these areas, focusing on rural areas through initiatives like "thousands of villages harnessing wind power" and "tens of thousands of households benefiting from solar energy." Experts from Zhengzhou University estimate that the potential on rural rooftops could reach 2 billion kilowatts, generating enough electricity to account for 25% of the national total within five years, equivalent to building several large power plants.
2. Changed Evaluation Criteria: Beyond Capacity, Focus on Reliability
In the past, the focus was solely on the amount of installed capacity; now, it is also about whether renewable energy can provide reliable support during peak demand periods. The plan introduces three new indicators:
- Average Guaranteed Output for Wind and Solar Power at 8%: This means that during the most stressful times on the grid (e.g., late summer peak hours when air conditioning is in use), wind and solar power plants should be able to output an average of 8% of their installed capacity. New centralized plants are required to have a guaranteed output of no less than 10%, with incentives for those exceeding 20%.
- Late-Peak Hour Electricity Contribution of Over 20%: During summer and winter peak hours, the electricity generated by wind and solar power should account for at least one-fifth of the total demand.
- Additional Reliable Peak-Capacity of 300 Million Kilowatts: An additional 300 million kilowatts of renewable energy capacity is needed to ensure stable supply during peak times.
This indicates that new energy plants cannot rely solely on natural conditions; they must incorporate advanced technologies (such as grid-connected inverters, high-precision forecasting, and energy storage) to provide a reliable and controllable power source. Industry experts predict that energy storage will become a standard requirement rather than an optional addition in the future.
3. Excess Energy? Convert It into Other Forms: Non-Electric Uses as New Solutions
A major challenge with renewable energy is the issue of excess production in some regions, which cannot be fully utilized locally and is limited by long-distance transmission. The plan proposes converting electricity into non-electric products like green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol. By 2030, the scale of non-electric uses of renewable energy is expected to increase by 1.5 times compared to 2025, with a target of producing 2 million tons of green hydrogen. Specific plans include building green hydrogen production bases in the northeast for long-distance transmission and nearby utilization bases in the Yellow River bend areas and northern China.
Currently, China accounts for half of the global green hydrogen production capacity, but non-electric uses account for only 1%, and the cost of green hydrogen is still higher than that of traditional hydrogen. This plan aims to scale up production to make green hydrogen more affordable and widely available.
4. Technology and Mechanisms as Backups: Energy Storage and Virtual Power Plants as Essential Components
To ensure reliable energy supply, efforts must be made on both the generation and demand sides:
- Technological Solutions: Energy Storage and Grid-Connected Technologies
The Qihé Energy Storage Plant in Shandong is a successful example. It connects distributed energy storage to low-voltage lines, solving voltage instability issues caused by photovoltaic power generation and enabling peak shaving (discharging during peak hours and charging during off-peak times). In the future, energy storage will become standard for renewable energy plants, and grid-connected technologies will become more valuable.
- Mechanical Solutions: Virtual Power Plants and Demand-Side Response
Virtual power plants are not physical power plants but rather systems that aggregate distributed electrical equipment (such as factories, charging stations, and household energy storage) for unified dispatching. For example, during late summer peak hours, virtual power plants can request factories to reduce their load or use energy storage to supplement traditional power generation. The Natural Resources Protection Association estimates that the investment in virtual power plants is only 10%-20% of that required for traditional power plants, making them highly cost-effective. The plan also encourages interactions between vehicles and the grid (e.g., electric vehicle charging/discharging) and integrated systems involving power generation, grids, loads, and energy storage, as well as the development of zero-carbon factories and parks.
Conclusion
The key themes of the 15th Five-Year Plan for renewable energy are "reliability" and "efficiency." The goal is not just to increase capacity but also to ensure stable and efficient power supply. This shift reflects a transition from quantitative expansion to qualitative improvement, which will drive the growth of new industries such as energy storage, green hydrogen, and virtual power plants. For ordinary people, this may mean more photovoltaic panels on rural rooftops, the possibility of using green hydrogen at gas stations, and fewer power outages during peak summer hours due to increased reliance on renewable energy sources.