Summary of Key Points
This article discusses the evolution of the sports star card market, tracing its transformation from being a small toy available at convenience stores to an investment item with sky-high prices, and then to a form of gambling. In recent years, the prices of star cards have skyrocketed (for example, a Jordan-Kobe dual-signature card was sold for $12.93 million). The entry of capital (with Fanatics acquiring Topps) has changed the industry's logic, creating artificial scarcity and a range of high-priced products that compel ordinary players to participate in a crowdfunding-based card-opening process known as “upper grouping.” This gameplay, with its dual random mechanisms, often results in significant losses for many participants and can even lead to addiction, blurring the lines between collecting, investing, and gambling. The article also draws parallels with the “junk card bubble” of the 1980s, warning that the current market may be repeating past mistakes.
Detailed Analysis
1. Sports Star Cards: From a Few Cents to Millions
Once, sports star cards were cheap trinkets available for purchase at convenience stores. Today, however, a new Messi card can sell for $1.5 million, and a Jordan-Kobe dual-signature card can exceed $12 million. A regular World Cup card box that cost 1,000 yuan eight years ago is now priced at 8,000 yuan. There are also boxes costing 100,000 yuan each, which contain not only limited-edition autographs from stars like Messi and Ronaldo but also 20-gram pieces of 14k gold. This is no longer just about collecting; it’s more like purchasing luxury goods. For ordinary people, buying an entire box has become increasingly unattainable.
2. “Upper Grouping” = Crowdfunding Gambling?
“Upper grouping” involves pooling money to buy a box of cards, which are then randomly distributed. For instance, a box may contain 1,728 cards, but only 72 of them have valuable autographs or limited editions. Players first need to draw a “card code” randomly and then wait for a host to open the box. The chances of getting a good card are even lower than those in lottery games. Someone named Xiao Song invested 100,000 yuan but only received 17,000 yuan back; Capp won 770,000 yuan but became addicted and ended up losing all his money, eventually needing to enter a gambling rehabilitation center. Many people see this as an “exotic hobby,” but it’s essentially the same as gambling: converting money into cards in the hope of a big payout.
3. How Capital Turns Sports Star Cards into a Money-Making Machine
After Fanatics acquired Topps in 2021, its valuation increased from $10.4 billion to $31 billion in just over a year. Their tactics include:
- Creating Scarcity: The same player’s cards are produced in dozens of limited editions (for example, the current World Cup PRIZM series has 65 limited editions, compared to 24 in the previous edition). They use effects like glitter and numbered restrictions to make the cards appear more valuable.
- Locking in Good Cards: The truly valuable cards are placed in expensive “Hobby” boxes, making it impossible for ordinary retail boxes to contain any good cards.
- Accelerating Circulation: The “upper grouping” process helps businesses quickly clear their inventory, allowing money to circulate faster. Ordinary people either have to pay a lot for the expensive boxes or participate in “upper grouping”—a dead end designed by capital.
4. A Repeat of History?
Is the current market repeating the mistakes of the 1980s’ “junk card bubble”? Back then, sports star cards were seen as investment items, and companies printed millions of them each year, leading to a glut that turned them into worthless paper (known as the “Junk Wax Era.” The piles of discarded cards in Detroit factories are a testament to that bubble’s collapse. Today, the issue is not about printing too many ordinary cards but creating artificially scarce, high-priced ones. But when everyone realizes that scarcity is artificial, could the bubble burst again?
5. Blurred Boundaries: Collecting? Investing? Or Gambling?
The lines between collecting, investing, and gambling are becoming increasingly blurred. In the United States, more than 60 users have sued platforms for illegal gambling activities, and there are many disputes related to sports star cards in China. Rehabilitation centers have received calls from parents concerned about their children (aged 15-16) stealing money to participate in “upper grouping.” The live streaming tactics used by businesses (comedy-style commentary, dramatic card-opening ceremonies, interactive light shows) are designed to create addiction. They tap into the emotional aspects of collecting, the potential for investment, and the random rewards associated with gambling. The question on whether this is a hobby or gambling is one that needs urgent discussion.
Final Warning
Sports star cards are essentially just pieces of paper, and their value comes from people’s perception. When capital turns them into a form of gambling, it’s best for ordinary players to stay clear-headed: don’t let a hobby turn into an addiction, and don’t let what should be investment become a way of losing money. After all, the junk card bubble of the 1980s provided a clear lesson.