Summary of the Key Points
This article compares “certainty” to the fundamental currency of human life—every choice we make (such as investing in education, enduring a job, saving money, etc.) is essentially about “buying” or “producing” certainty: either believing that today’s efforts will lead to stability tomorrow, or transferring that risk to others in order to feel more secure. The article uses examples like Fan Jin’s quest for success through the imperial examinations, busy professionals in the workplace, the rules of casinos, and the ineffectiveness of parental advice to break down the logic behind the transfer of certainty and the traps associated with its falsification. It ultimately offers practical methods for ordinary people to generate their own certainty without relying on others (such as companies or diplomas).
Detailed Analysis
1. Certainty Doesn’t Appear Out of Thin Air; It’s Transferred
Have you noticed that the most reliable people in the workplace are always the busiest? Leaders assign urgent tasks to them because they “never let down.” The leader gains the certainty of a project being completed on time, while the employee bears the uncertainty of working overtime and disrupting their weekend. Landlords collect a fixed rent every month, regardless of the business performance of the tenants; platforms take a fixed percentage of profits, leaving creators to deal with fluctuations in traffic. In other words, the stability in one place is often achieved at the expense of someone else taking on the challenges. The advantage of the powerful (leaders, landlords, platforms) lies in their ability to set rules: what is fixed (rent, fees, delivery dates) and what is variable (your workload, the tenant’s income, the creator’s traffic). If your reliability doesn’t come with corresponding rewards or the power to refuse, you become a free “risk buffer” for others.
2. The Essence of Money and Credit: They’re Useful Because Everyone Believes in Them
A hundred-yuan note can’t be eaten, but why would you fight for it? Because you believe you can use it to buy bread or pay rent tomorrow. The numbers in your bank account are just code, yet 300,000 people are unemployed and have no choice but to compromise, while only 300 have the freedom to be picky about their jobs. The power of money and credit doesn’t come from the paper or the numbers themselves; it comes from the mutual trust of strangers—today’s money is recognized by others tomorrow. Similarly, contracts aren’t meant to prevent breaches of contract but to specify who will pay for them; credit isn’t a guarantee of always keeping one’s promises, but rather a reason for others to be willing to cooperate with you (for example, if you’ve repaid loans on time, it’s easier to borrow again in the future). The core of all these things is ensuring that today’s efforts (work, goods) won’t be wasted tomorrow.
3. Don’t Be Deceived by “Falsified Certainty”—Casinos and Scam Consultations Use the Same Trick
Casinos don’t know who will win the next round, but they dare to open their doors forever because the rules favor the house (for example, the dealer has a slight advantage in baccarat). As long as there are enough players, the casino can make a steady profit. Players, on the other hand, always think they’re one step away from winning or that “their turn will come next,” mistaking randomness for pattern and continuing to gamble. There are many such traps in life: scam companies offering to help with college applications, claiming their methods guarantee success, or business courses promising guaranteed profits but showing only a few winners. How to spot them? Ask yourself four questions:
- Can my actions change the outcome? (For example, you can’t change the dealer’s advantage in a casino.)
- What do I gain from failure? (You lose nothing in a casino; failing to learn a skill at least gives you experience.)
- Does the other party want me to keep gambling? (The casino would love for you to play all night.)
- Do I see the full picture, or only the winners?
4. Why Parents’ “Old Maps” No Longer Work: The Road Conditions Have Changed
The path followed by parents’ generation was: education → job → house → retirement. This map worked in the past, but now things have changed:
- A degree no longer guarantees a good job (even from a prestigious school).
- Stable companies can still lay off employees (due to industry changes or AI).
- Ten years of experience might be worthless (if it’s just repetitive tasks; AI can replace those jobs).
The key is to understand what you rely on for your returns: if you depend on a certificate or a company’s processes, you’re at risk; if you rely on skills like problem-solving, resource coordination, and responsibility-taking, you’ll be better prepared for change.
5. How Can Ordinary People Generate Their Own Certainty? Don’t Rely Only on Stability Given by Others
A stable job at a company or a prestigious degree are forms of “certainty” provided by others. But if the rules change (for example, the company lays off employees or the field becomes obsolete), you’re left without a foundation. To generate your own certainty, do the following:
- Set clear boundaries: How much do you need to spend each month? Knowing your minimum expenses is more helpful than worrying aimlessly.
- Acquire skills that you can take with you: Don’t just say “I’ve worked at this company for 5 years”; show evidence of solving problems (projects, client reviews).
- Break big decisions into smaller steps: Want to change careers? Try a small project first; want to learn AI? Use it to improve a work process.
- Avoid being dependent on one thing: Don’t rely on one source of income, one customer, or one platform.
- Consider the consequences of failure before investing: If you take a course and don’t change careers, at least have a portfolio; if a collaboration fails, at least have a good reputation.
These things can’t guarantee success forever, but they give you the opportunity to recover from mistakes—this is the “safety cushion” that ordinary people can build for themselves.
In conclusion, certainty isn’t about absolute safety; it’s about having a backup plan in case something goes wrong. Stop relying on others’ guarantees and instead build your own buffer of resources, skills, and connections, so that one mistake won’t knock you down.