Summary of Key Points
In 2015, Japan and India signed a major contract for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail project, with Japan providing a super-low-interest loan (annual interest rate of 0.1% over a 50-year period), and the project was scheduled to be operational by 2023. However, after nearly a decade, only 41.7% of the work has been completed. Recently, the project has encountered significant setbacks due to a complete breakdown in technical cooperation: India has decided to use European signaling systems and domestically produced trains, effectively reducing Japan's role from that of the primary technology provider to merely a financier. A former Japanese minister harshly criticized India for being untrustworthy, while India responded in kind. This once-promising partnership, seen as a new beginning for both countries, has turned into a tug-of-war driven by mutual ulterior motives, revealing the challenges Japan faces when attempting to export its Shinkansen technology.
From "Dream Partnership" to "Open Hostilities: The Battle over Technical Control"
When the contract was signed in 2015, Indian netizens celebrated it as the beginning of a new era for their country, and Japan viewed it as a historic victory for its high-speed rail exports. Yet now, the tensions between the two countries have come to light:
- Signal System: India explicitly chose the European ETCS-L2 standard over Japan's DS-ATC system, which is a core component of the Shinkansen technology.
- Train Supply: India has opted for domestically produced B28 trains from BEML instead of using Japan's E5 and E10 series, citing production halts and price increases on Japanese trains.
- Japan's Reduced Role: Originally responsible for providing the entire high-speed rail system, Japan is now only involved in financing and infrastructure support, with all core technologies being replaced by Indian counterparts.
The former Japanese Minister of Justice, Hiroyuki Makihara, could not contain his anger, calling India's actions "unreasonable" and stating that a proper partnership was impossible. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately countered these accusations as "factually inaccurate." This so-called "brotherly relationship" lasted less than half a month; the two prime ministers still posed for photos together on July 2nd but began arguing just 15 days later.
Why Has India's High-Speed Rail Dream Proven So Difficult to Realize?
India indeed has a significant need for high-speed rail, given its vast railway network (transporting 23 million people daily), although 60% of the infrastructure was inherited from Britain. However, train speeds are limited to 50-60 kilometers per hour, and delays and accidents are common. Prime Minister Modi hoped to use high-speed rail as a symbol of a modernized India. The challenges are substantial:
- Land Acquisition: Land acquisition is extremely difficult due to private ownership and varying state laws; even in Modi's home state of Gujarat, only 30% of the land required was acquired by 2021, delaying the project.
- Localization Requirements: India insisted on including "Made in India" clauses in the contract, requiring Japan to build factories and transfer technology locally. However, the Shinkansen system is highly integrated (trains, tracks, and signaling systems must work together), and replacing it with European components and domestic trains undermines Japan's technical advantages.
- Cost Overruns: The initial budget of 1.68 trillion yen has soared to nearly 3 trillion yen, leaving it unclear whether this project will be a viable investment or a sinkhole of funds.
Why Has Japan's Shinkansen Export Become a Nightmare?
The Shinkansen is a source of pride for Japan, but its overseas projects have largely failed: the Indian project has been delayed for ten years, the Vietnamese project was rejected, and the Thai project resulted in only a memorandum of understanding without further action. The main issues are:
- Exorbitant Costs: While Japan's domestic high-speed rail network covers only 3,300 kilometers (compared to China's 50,000 kilometers), large-scale construction is necessary to reduce costs. Japanese bid prices are often prohibitive—e.g., the Vietnamese project cost $56 billion, nearly one-third of Vietnam's GDP.
- Closed Model: The Shinkansen's success in Japan relies on a centralized, standardized approach, but overseas markets require flexibility (local production and different standards).
- Fierce Competition from China: In 2015, Japan aimed to counter its loss of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail project to China by securing the Indian contract. However, China completed the Jakarta-Bandung line in just eight years, while Japan has only achieved 41% progress in India.
The Underlying Conflict: A Partnership Driven by Self-Interests
From the start, the goals of both countries did not align:
- India's Goals: To leverage Japan's low-interest loan to acquire technology without being controlled and eventually develop its own high-speed rail system.
- Japan's Expectations: To export the complete Shinkansen technology, establish a global brand, and generate long-term maintenance revenue.
The result is that India has obtained funding but lost control of the core technologies, while Japan has invested heavily without gaining significant influence. Both countries' ambitions have collided, leaving behind a series of unfinished projects.
In essence, the Indian project has turned into a farce, serving as a reminder to all countries seeking to export technology: a rigid, inflexible approach that does not cater to local needs can lead to failed initiatives. For India, without stable cooperation and technological expertise, the promise of a "modernized India" may remain unfulfilled.