Summary of Key Points
The National Energy Administration has recently proposed a pilot project to demonstrate the feasibility of transmitting 100% of renewable energy. This initiative is aimed at addressing the critical issue of renewable energy bases, where generating electricity is relatively easy but transporting it over long distances is challenging, leading to high rates of power waste and low utilization efficiency. Previous approaches, whether involving ultra-high voltage transmission (with a low proportion of renewable energy) or local consumption (which is costly and ineffective), have not successfully resolved the problem. The key to achieving 100% renewable energy transmission lies in reducing the output of coal-fired power, but this requires adjustments to existing interests and overcoming technical challenges. The success of this pilot project could open up new opportunities for the consumption of renewable energy.
Why the Sudden Push for 100% Renewable Energy Transmission?
In short, previous methods have not been effective in solving the problem of renewable energy consumption. China's three major renewable energy bases—the arid regions in the north, the water and wind resources in the southwest, and the offshore wind power in the east—are expected to expand significantly (for example, the arid regions are projected to have 600 million kilowatts of capacity by 2030). However, the difficulty in transporting renewable energy generated in these areas remains a major bottleneck. In the west, there is plenty of sunlight and wind during the day, but electricity demand is low in the east (when people are at work), and this competes with local distributed solar power systems. At night, when electricity demand increases in the east, the sun sets in the west and wind speeds decrease, making it difficult to transmit energy. This mismatch between supply and demand results in low utilization rates and significant power waste.
The state has previously experimented with ultra-high voltage transmission (such as the line from Qinghai to Henan), but the proportion of renewable energy in these transmissions was very low (only around 15%), meaning coal-fired power still had to be used as a backup. Local consumption methods, such as producing green hydrogen or relocating energy-intensive industries, are costly and do not address the root issue. Therefore, this pilot project aims to break through this bottleneck and demonstrate the government's determination to solve the problem of power waste.
What Are the Challenges in Transmitting Renewable Energy from Large Bases?
The main challenges stem from three mismatches:
1. Unstable renewable energy: Wind and solar power are dependent on weather conditions, which means their availability is unpredictable, causing fluctuations in electricity supply.
2. Underutilized ultra-high voltage transmission infrastructure: For example, the Qinghai-Henan direct current line is designed to transmit 40 billion kWh per year, but in 2023, less than 10 billion kWh were actually transmitted, indicating significant waste of capacity.
3. Disynchronization between supply and demand: When power is generated in the west during peak times, either demand is low in the east or local renewable energy systems are generating electricity, so there is no need for additional transmission. Conversely, when demand increases in the east, the west may not be able to meet the demand.
Why Have Previous Solutions Not Been Effective?
The state has explored two approaches, but both have limitations:
- Ultra-high voltage transmission: New transmission lines are required to ensure that at least 50% of the energy transmitted is renewable. However, many existing lines do not meet this standard (for example, the Lingshao line only transmits about 20% renewable energy), as coal-fired power is needed to stabilize the voltage.
- Local consumption:
- Producing green hydrogen is costly and not feasible in the short term; moreover, green hydrogen is primarily used in chemical and transportation industries, which does not help with carbon neutrality.
- Relocating energy-intensive industries to the west to use green electricity also has limited success due to the variability of renewable energy.
What Are the Biggest Barriers to Achieving 100% Renewable Energy Transmission?
The main barrier is the adjustment of interests related to coal-fired power. Other challenges include technical and cost issues:
- Supply-side adjustments: The western regions need to reduce their reliance on coal-fired power and invest in storage systems (such as batteries or pumped storage) to stabilize electricity supply, but this increases costs and raises electricity prices.
- Demand-side adjustments: Eastern regions must reduce their consumption of coal-fired power to make room for renewable energy from the west. This requires changes in policies and grid operation rules to prioritize renewable energy.
What Changes Could the Success of the Pilot Project Bring?
If the 100% renewable energy transmission pilot is successful, there are several potential benefits:
- Increased utilization of renewable energy: Large renewable energy bases will no longer rely on coal-fired power, leading to a significant reduction in power waste.
- Cleaner electricity: The electricity used by electric vehicles will be truly renewable, enhancing environmental sustainability.
- Progress towards carbon neutrality: A decrease in the proportion of coal-fired power and an increase in renewable energy usage will bring China closer to its dual-carbon goals.
Although this is currently just a pilot project, its success could revolutionize the way renewable energy is consumed. In the future, large energy bases may rely solely on wind, solar, and storage systems for power transmission, which would be transformative for the entire energy industry.
In summary, the 100% renewable energy transmission pilot is not just about technical solutions; it also involves significant adjustments to existing interests, policies, and energy systems. If these barriers can be overcome, the problem of renewable energy consumption will be resolved, and China's energy transition will advance significantly.