Summary of Key Points
SpaceX's 13th test flight of the Starship has made significant progress (the spacecraft achieved a successful soft landing, deployed satellites, and tested its heat shield system), but the boosters have not yet returned perfectly. Meanwhile, SpaceX's stock price has been plummeting recently, falling below its IPO price, with a market value evaporating by over one trillion dollars. Analysts believe that investors are significantly underestimating the value of SpaceX's AI business, and the expiration of the lock-up period for insider shares next month could exacerbate the decline. Additionally, SpaceX has refused to accept orders for Falcon 9 launches after 2028, indicating that Musk is betting on the Starship becoming the company's primary rocket.
1. The 13th Starship Test Flight: Significant Progress, but Boosters Still Need Improvement
This test flight was the most successful so far in the development of the Starship:
- Outstanding Performance of the Spacecraft: The upper stage of the Starship completed the entire process of landing, flipping over, igniting, and performing a soft landing, successfully floating in the Indian Ocean. It also transmitted clear images of its heat shield system for the first time—this shield is crucial for protecting the spacecraft as it enters the atmosphere and can be reused in future flights.
- Successful Satellite Deployment: For the first time, 20 Starlink V3 satellites were launched. Although these satellites burned up upon re-entering the atmosphere (as part of a test), the team successfully established contact with all of them, verifying the launch and communication capabilities.
- Boosters Still Have Issues: When the Super Heavy booster attempted to return by reigniting its engines, some engines functioned correctly, but the booster ultimately made a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico. There is still a way to go before achieving complete reusability.
In short, the spacecraft's performance is promising, but the boosters need further optimization.
2. SpaceX's Stock Price Plunges: Below IPO Price, Market Value Shrinks by Over One Trillion Dollars
SpaceX's stock price has been experiencing a sharp decline:
- Current Situation: On July 24th, the stock price dropped to $115.07, hitting a record low and below its IPO price of $123.99. The market value is now only $1.51 trillion dollars, which represents a loss of over one trillion dollars compared to its peak. In the past five days, the stock has fallen by 7.2%.
- Causes of the Decline: The test flight was delayed due to engine issues last Thursday, and the stock price fell below the IPO price the following day. More importantly, the lock-up period for insider shares will expire next month, raising concerns that these insiders may sell their shares in large quantities, further pushing down the price.
3. Analysts: The AI Business Is a Drag on Performance
Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, believes that SpaceX's stock price currently reflects little value for its AI efforts:
- Doubts About the AI Business: Investors are skeptical about SpaceX's AI products, such as the Grok chatbot and the Cursor code editor, considering them to be either worthless or even detrimental to the company's overall performance. The reason is that the AI division requires substantial capital investment, and there is uncertainty about its profitability. Moreover, Musk has invested too much time in this area, which may distract him from focusing on SpaceX's core space activities.
- Future Prospects: Many analysts expect the stock price to drop below $100 after the lock-up period expires, potentially resulting in a zero valuation for the AI business.
4. Musk's Bet on the Starship: Rejecting Falcon 9 Orders After 2028
Recent news indicates that SpaceX is refusing to accept orders for Falcon 9 launches after 2028, signaling Musk's commitment to the Starship as the future of the company:
- The Starship as the Future: While Falcon 9 remains a profitable and cost-effective rocket, the Starship is larger and more advanced, capable of carrying heavier payloads and even transporting humans to Mars. Musk aims to make the Starship the primary rocket for SpaceX's missions.
- Risks Involved: If there are further setbacks in the development of the Starship (e.g., another failed test flight), SpaceX may have to resume accepting Falcon 9 orders. After all, customers need reliable launch services and cannot afford delays.
In summary, while the progress made with the Starship is encouraging, the stock market remains skeptical due to recent test flight delays, the pressure from the upcoming lock-up period expiration, and investors' concerns about the AI business. Musk's focus on the Starship reflects a bold bet for the company's future success, but it also carries significant risks. The timely development of the Starship is crucial for SpaceX's long-term survival. For outsiders watching these developments, they can see the dual challenges faced by tech companies: the high costs of research and development and the volatility of the market.