Core Summary
Colossal Biosciences is a biotechnology company founded in 2021 that focuses on “reviving extinct species” and the “Earth backup plan.” Its valuation has soared from $15 million to an estimated $20-30 billion (about 210 billion RMB) within five years. The company has raised funds rapidly by combining “science fiction stories with authoritative scientific backing,” but its core initiatives, such as reviving dire wolves and mammoths, have been criticized for lacking scientific validation. Technologies like the artificial uterus have sparked ethical debates. Its business model remains largely in the planning stage, making it a controversial “valuation myth.”
Detailed Analysis
1. **The Rapid Valuation Growth: The Secret to a 2000-Fold Increase**
The company’s valuation has skyrocketed: $15 million in its seed round in 2021, $1.45 billion in the B round in 2023, over $1 billion in the C round in 2025, and it is now valued at $20-30 billion in the negotiation rounds, representing a 2000-fold increase in just five years.
- Storytelling and Expert Endorsement: Founder Ben Lamm is an adept storyteller who presents the idea of reviving mammoths as part of an “Earth backup” initiative and a moral obligation. George Church, a Harvard geneticist and early developer of CRISPR technology, lends his credibility to these claims, making the science fiction elements seem more plausible.
- Celebrity Support: Investors including the author of “Game of Thrones,” the director of “The Lord of the Rings,” and Tom Brady have contributed to the company’s fame, further enhancing its visibility. The birth of a dire wolf in 2024 made it a sensation when it appeared on the cover of Time magazine.
- Capital Appeal: Investors in the primary market are attracted by the concept of science fiction, willing to invest even though the company’s revenue is still minimal.
2. **“Reviving Extinct Species”: Reality or Imitation?**
While the company claims to have revived dire wolves and mammoths, the reality is more modest:
- Not True Revival: The chief scientist admits that the three dire wolves are actually gray wolves with 20 genetic modifications, not actual extinct species.
- Lack of Scientific Proof: There has been no peer-reviewed research published to verify the results; even the success rate of hatching chicks in 2026 has not been disclosed, leaving independent scientists unable to confirm the claims.
- Criticism from Conservationists: Ecologists argue that investing in such “imitations” rather than saving currently endangered species like the black-footed ferret would divert much-needed resources and attention from real conservation efforts.
3. **The Artificial Uterus: A Technological Breakthrough or an Ethical Bomb?**
The company claims it will have an artificial uterus available by next year, potentially for human fertility treatments, but this raises significant ethical concerns:
- Ethical Dilemmas: If mammalian artificial uteruses become viable, they could be used in humans, altering the debate around abortion (for example, if a fetus develops in such a uterus, the definition of abortion might change).
- Promises vs. Risks: Although the company says it will not modify the human genome, the founder acknowledges that the technology could be licensed for reproductive medicine, potentially opening up uncontrollable ethical and legal issues.
4. **Can the Business Model Become Reality?**
The company’s current revenue comes from three main sources, none of which are yet profitable:
- Technology Licensing: The company has sold its technology to the U.S. government and the UAE (which invested $60 million), representing the only actual cash flow.
- Spin-off Companies: It has created subsidiaries like Breaking, which focuses on plastic degradation, and Form Bio in computational biology; these companies have high valuations but no profits yet.
- Biodiversity Credits: The company plans to sell credits for reviving species released into the wild, similar to carbon credits, but this is still just an idea. The artificial uterus is also in the research phase.
In summary, the company’s revenue is minimal, and its valuation is largely based on speculative “story value,” far from actual profitability.
5. **Controversies: A Tripartite Challenge of Science, Politics, and Ethics**
The company faces challenges in both science and ethics, as well as politics. Conservative U.S. officials have used the story of reviving dire wolves to question the importance of endangered species protection laws, suggesting that if extinct species can be revived, protecting them may no longer be necessary. This has turned the company’s scientific goals into a political tool.
In conclusion, the biggest issue for Colossal Biosciences is not whether it can make money but whether it can pass the test of moral and ethical standards. Even in the realm of science fiction, there are fundamental rules that must be respected.