Summary of Key Points
The low-altitude economy once attracted a surge of capital and enterprise investment due to policy incentives (being included in the government work report for two consecutive years), leading to expectations of a short-term boom. However, the industry has now returned to a more rational approach: there are fewer attempts at "storytelling" (issuing preliminary interest expressions) and more focus on "getting things done" (discussing operations and profitability). The current state of the industry is characterized by enthusiasm from local governments and capital markets, as well as a large number of manufacturers, but the core supply chain, air traffic control infrastructure, and business models are still not well-developed. The next two to three years will see a focus on building tangible capabilities, with key factors being certification for safe operation, mass production capabilities, and commercial operations. The low-altitude economy is a long-term endeavor that will progress in stages: "cargo transportation first, then passenger transport, and finally widespread adoption."
1. Getting the "flight license" is much harder than you think
For electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles to become commercially viable, the first step is obtaining an airworthiness certificate (equivalent to a "birth permit" for flying). But how difficult is this? Take the C919 as a reference: the development of this large aircraft took five years from its maiden flight to obtaining the necessary certification. Since eVTOLs are a completely new category, there are no established global safety standards, and regulatory authorities are cautious about granting approvals.
Many early manufacturers were overly optimistic about the time required for certification; now they are struggling with the process. Some manufacturers have reported spending hundreds of millions on prototype development alone, with additional costs of billions expected for flight testing and certification, taking at least four years. Moreover, many new manufacturers have not gone through the full airworthiness process and have underestimated the hidden costs of rectifying issues—such as non-compliant avionics system designs, which may require complete reconstruction. As a result, the industry is emphasizing the importance of following compliance guidelines to avoid wasting money and time.
2. Lack of unified component standards poses safety risks for mass production
The number of suppliers in the low-altitude industry chain is increasing, but they operate independently without common standards. For example, avionics and flight control systems vary in interfaces, technology, and airworthiness requirements. Different manufacturers use different chips, software, and testing methods, making it difficult to achieve mass production and reducing costs, which in turn affects safety.
The aviation industry is inherently complex, and no single company can dominate everything. Manufacturers are now collaborating with specialized suppliers to clarify responsibilities and standardize interfaces to ensure that any changes to components meet airworthiness requirements. However, solving the issue of inconsistent standards requires the joint effort of all stakeholders (manufacturers, suppliers, and research institutions) to standardize technology and interfaces, making products both safe and affordable for a broader market.
3. Even if they can fly, they won't go far—infrastructure and airspace limitations hold back progress
Obtaining an airworthiness certificate only means the vehicle can fly; sustained operation depends on infrastructure and policy support. Current challenges include:
- Lagging infrastructure: There is a sparse distribution of vertical takeoff and landing sites, charging facilities, and air navigation systems, lacking a cohesive network. For example, flying from Beijing to Tianjin might require finding suitable landing points and charging stations, making it difficult to establish regular passenger or cargo flows.
- Strict airspace regulations: Low-altitude flights require approval from the military and air traffic control, which is time-consuming and not yet fully standardized. Although some cities have piloted programs, cross-regional flights remain limited. For instance, flying from Pudong to Hongqiao in Shanghai might take days of approval, making it unsuitable as a daily mode of transport.
Without these supporting systems, even if the vehicles are built, they will remain more like "air toys" and not commercially viable.
4. The low-altitude economy is a long-term race, not a short-term trend
The industry has reached a consensus that it is a decade-long endeavor, not a fleeting opportunity for quick profits. The implementation will follow a phased approach:
- Cargo transportation first: Using drones for delivery and medical supplies, which have lower requirements for airspace and infrastructure and can be rolled out more easily.
- Passenger transport later: As infrastructure and airspace regulations improve, air taxis and commuter flights will be gradually introduced.
- Widespread adoption: This may only happen in a decade, when airspace is fully opened up, infrastructure is well-developed, and costs are reduced, making it accessible to the general public.
In summary, relying on the low-altitude economy for quick profits is unrealistic. Companies need to focus on building their capabilities—obtaining airworthiness certificates, strengthening supply chains, and identifying profitable use cases. The transition from initial excitement to steady growth is a necessary part of the industry's maturation process. For consumers, it may still be several years before they can use air taxis, but for businesses and investors, now is the time to build their foundations for long-term success.