Summary of Key Points
The United States has terminated Executive Order 13936 and the "National Emergency" regarding Hong Kong, which is a result of the consensus reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. This marks a relaxation of the extreme pressure policies that the US has imposed on Hong Kong for several years, potentially paving the way for a revival of normal economic and trade relations between Hong Kong and the US. However, it is important to remain cautious: the underlying mindset of the US to contain China and interfere in Hong Kong's affairs has not fundamentally changed, and the legislation passed by Congress regarding Hong Kong still exists (and could potentially be used as a "legal tool" in the future). Some sanctions have not been completely lifted either. The approach should be to focus on our own development, promote Hong Kong's integration into the national framework, and strengthen its international central position to withstand external risks.
I. The US Termination of the Administrative Order: The "Key" to Reviving Economic and Trade Relations
What was this administrative order? Simply put, it created barriers between US companies and the Hong Kong market, as well as between Hong Kong and the rest of the world. For example, US businesses doing business with Hong Kong faced more restrictions, and it was more difficult for Hong Kong's funds and goods to enter or leave the US. Some Hong Kong institutions and individuals were also subject to sanctions. With the termination of this order, these barriers have been partially removed. This means that Hong Kong companies can now conduct business with the US more smoothly (such as selling electronic products and providing financial services), and US agricultural and technological products can enter Hong Kong more easily. Similarly, cooperation between Hong Kong's financial institutions and their US counterparts (in areas like cross-border investment and settlement) has become less cumbersome, and external exchanges (such as academic and cultural activities) are gradually resuming. This is a direct benefit for Hong Kong's business environment, as the economy relies heavily on trade and finance. With normal relations with the US, business will naturally improve.
II. The Reasons Behind the US's Reluctance: A Combination of Chinese Resistance and Self-Interests
Why has the US suddenly decided to stop? It's not out of a change of heart but due to pressure from multiple factors.
Firstly, there is Chinese resistance: in the face of US pressure, China has neither hardened its stance nor made concessions. It has upheld the principle that Hong Kong is an internal affair of China while using economic and trade negotiations and high-level dialogues to show the US that confrontation is unproductive. For instance, when the US imposed sanctions on Hong Kong, American businesses suffered, such as farmers losing sales of soybeans and corn to Hong Kong (a significant market for US agricultural products), and US financial institutions missing out on business in this Asian financial hub.
Secondly, there is the consensus reached during the Sino-US Madrid negotiations: both sides have agreed that the US should fulfill its commitments and end these restrictive measures. Therefore, this relaxation is a result of China's strategic and measured resistance, as well as a compromise made by the US for its own interests.
III. Don't Be Overly Optimistic: The US Still Has Remaining Moves, and Risks Remain
Although the administrative order has been terminated, two potential issues need attention:
1. Legislation Passed by Congress is Still in Effect: Several laws passed by the US Congress regarding Hong Kong (such as the "Hong Kong Autonomy Act") have not been repealed. These are long-term, institutionalized tools that the US could use as excuses to reinstate sanctions or restrictions at any time.
2. Some Sanctions Have Not Been Lifted: Only the administrative order has been terminated; specific sanctions based on this order (such as those targeting certain Hong Kong officials and companies) have not been completely lifted. It is uncertain whether the US will fully relax its stance in the future.
In other words, the US has temporarily put away these "temporary tools," but its intention to contain China remains unchanged, so we cannot afford to be complacent.
IV. The Approach: Focus on Our Own Development and Strengthen Hong Kong's Position
No matter how much external interference there is, the best response is to focus on our own development. Here are some steps to take:
1. Integrate into the National Framework: Promote deeper cooperation between Hong Kong and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. For example, Hong Kong's financial institutions can collaborate with tech companies in the bay area, and its talents can start businesses there, sharing development opportunities.
2. Seize Major Opportunities: Utilize the "Belt and Road" initiative to leverage Hong Kong's role as a global connector, helping mainland companies expand overseas or attracting foreign investment to strengthen its position as an international financial, maritime, and trade hub.
3. Optimize the Local Environment: Continue to improve Hong Kong's legal system (a core advantage) to make it more attractive for businesses and talents to invest and thrive.
As long as Hong Kong maintains a strong foundation with China, external disruptions will not affect its prosperity and stability.
V. The Fundamental Significance: The Failure of the US's "Using Hong Kong to Contain China" Strategy
The US's policy towards Hong Kong was essentially an attempt to use it to contain China, hoping to disrupt China's development. However, the termination of the administrative order signals the failure of this strategy. Hong Kong has not only remained stable but has also grown stronger with Chinese support. This serves as a reminder to other Western countries that ideological confrontation and interference in China's internal affairs are futile. Only by respecting China's sovereignty can they achieve mutual benefit through cooperation.
In summary, this development is a positive sign, but we must remain vigilant and focus on our own development to ensure that Hong Kong continues to thrive under the "one country, two systems" framework.