虎嗅

"Calm down! A 'Storage Tax' is to be introduced in autumn."

原文:冷静点! 秋季开征“存储税”

Summary of Key Points

Recently, the storage chip industry (such as ChangXin Memory) has become a hot target for capital investment. The imbalance between supply and demand for storage chips is leading to significant price increases in consumer electronics products like iPhones and smart cars—iPhone prices are expected to rise by $300, and car prices by 20,000 yuan. Essentially, it’s the giants competing for limited storage resources that drive up costs, with the end-consumers bearing the brunt of these increases.

Detailed Analysis

1. Why Have Storage Chips Become Such an Attraction for Capital?

Think of storage chips as the “memory warehouses” for smart devices: phones store photos, computers store files, and cars store data for autonomous driving systems. In recent years, with the surge in AI, the popularity of smart cars, and the recovery of the consumer electronics market, there has been a sudden explosion in demand for storage. For example, training AI models requires massive amounts of storage space, and a smart car’s storage capacity is more than ten times that of a traditional vehicle. However, increasing production of storage chips is not an immediate task; building a wafer factory takes 2-3 years and costs billions of dollars, so supply cannot keep up with demand in the short term. Capital has seen this gap between supply and demand and has flocked to invest in companies like ChangXin Memory, making it a “feast” for investors.

2. The $300 Increase in iPhone Prices: The Chain Reaction of Rising Storage Chip Costs

Storage chips account for a significant portion of the cost of an iPhone (for instance, the 256GB version is several hundred dollars more expensive than the 128GB version). With rising storage chip prices, Apple’s production costs naturally increase. To avoid incurring losses, Apple passes on these costs to consumers, resulting in a $300 price hike for the iPhone. In simple terms: higher storage chip prices at the upstream level lead to increased costs for midstream phone manufacturers, which in turn result in higher prices for end-consumers.

3. The 20,000 Yuan Increase in Car Prices: How Dependent are Smart Cars on Storage?

Smart cars are far more than just “four wheels and a sofa.” Autonomous driving requires real-time storage of road conditions, car systems need to store navigation data, music, videos, and even the rear entertainment screens require storage. The amount of storage chips used in a high-end smart car can be more than 20 times that of a traditional vehicle. As giants like Apple, Huawei, and Tesla compete for storage chips, car manufacturers have to pay higher prices. For example, a chip that used to cost 1,000 yuan now costs 1,500 yuan, and since a car may require dozens of these chips, the additional cost can amount to several tens of thousands of yuan, which ultimately falls on consumers.

4. Giants Competing for Storage Chips Like They’re Competing for Food: A “Hoarding War” Due to Imbalance

The production capacity of storage chips is relatively slow (it takes time to build factories), while demand is growing rapidly (thanks to the rise in AI and smart devices). Fears of not getting enough chips have led to a frenzy among giants like Apple, Huawei, and Tesla. They place orders in advance, bid higher prices to secure supplies, and even try to “reserve” entire production lines. This speculative behavior further drives up chip prices, creating a cycle where the more they compete, the more expensive the chips become.

5. Consumers Always Pay the Price: The Final Consequence of Rising Costs

Whether it’s phones or cars, when manufacturers face increased costs, their most direct response is to raise prices. If you want to buy a new iPhone, you’ll have to pay an extra $300; if you want to switch to a smart car, you’ll need to spend an additional 20,000 yuan. It’s similar to the grocery market: when farmers’ input costs rise, supermarket prices also increase, and the end-consumers bear the consequences.

Conclusion

The root cause of these price increases is the imbalance between supply and demand for storage chips. Capital is investing in companies like ChangXin Memory because of the potential profit opportunities, while the competition among giants drives up costs. In the long run, if storage production capacity catches up, the pressure of rising prices may ease. However, in the short term, consumers should expect to spend more money on products.