Summary of Key Points
In April this year, Viktor Orban was defeated by Gabor Mógor, who led the Fidesz party to end Orban's 16-year reign. Upon taking office, Mógor implemented a series of “purging” reforms, including amending the constitution, fighting corruption, and shutting down outdated institutions, in an attempt to dismantle the political system established by Orban. However, the political situation remains uncertain (for example, the presidential candidate has not yet been determined), and Mógor faces multiple challenges such as constraints from EU funding, disputes over Chinese investment, and balancing foreign relations. The core of his policies can be summarized as being “limited” (both in terms of the extent of reforms and cooperation with external parties) and embodying “national populism” (which means protecting national interests while addressing the needs of the people and aligning with EU values of rule of law).
I. Purging Reforms: A Popular Move or a Source of Political Chaos?
Mógor’s reforms are currently considered a positive development because he is fulfilling his campaign promises. During the election, Orban promised that voting for him meant peace, while voting for Mógor meant war; however, the public was more concerned about issues like rising food and meat prices (inflation is nearly 60%, twice the EU average). Mógor’s anti-corruption agenda resonated with the people, as they believed that corruption under Orban's leadership had led to economic problems. His actions, such as amending the constitution to remove the former president from power and investigating the activities of Orban’s party, have not decreased public support. It’s important to note that these reforms target specific aspects of the political system (such as the party’s legislative bodies and propaganda mechanisms) rather than a blanket purge, which is why they have not caused widespread chaos.
II. Will Mógor Purge Orban Themselves?
There are three reasons why Mógor is hesitant to take direct action against Orban:
1. Fear of Setting a Precedent for Purges: Hungarians generally resist authority, and if Mógor were to send the former prime minister to jail, it could create a cycle where future opponents might use similar tactics against him after he leaves office, leading to complete political fragmentation.
2. Orban’s European Influence: The “Patriots of Europe” party that Orban leads is the third-largest in the European Parliament, and even far-right figures from France have joined this alliance. Purging Orban would mean going to war with the entire European right-wing movement.
3. US Interference: Donald Trump’s vice president, Mike Pence, supported Orban during the election (a rare occurrence in Central and Eastern Europe), and Orban has close ties with American conservatives. Mógor does not want to offend the Trump administration.
Therefore, Mógor’s anti-corruption efforts will mainly target those around Orban or related projects (such as the BYD case) rather than targeting Orban personally.
III. EU Funding: A Lifeline with Conditions
The EU has released 16.4 billion euros (13% of Hungary’s annual budget) to help Mógor address domestic issues, such as reducing inflation and providing social benefits. However, there is a deadline: these funds must be used to implement 27 judicial reforms by August 31st; otherwise, the funding will be revoked. Mógor is willing to cooperate, but only to a certain extent. He needs the money, but he does not want to completely submit to EU demands. For instance, he opposes Hungary’s rapid integration into the EU (fearing it could trigger a NATO conflict) and refuses to accept immigrants, while continuing to import Russian oil until 2035. His priorities are Hungarian national interests.
IV. Challenges Faced by Chinese Enterprises
Chinese companies in Hungary (such as BYD, CATL, and Enjie Shares) have recently encountered difficulties, which may be due to both anti-corruption efforts and geopolitical factors:
1. Anti-Corruption Measures: Mógor’s campaign against corruption has targeted Orban’s party, and the BYD case was used as an opportunity to target officials who had just left government positions for roles in private companies.
2. EU Pressure: The EU is implementing policies to protect the新能源汽车 industry, and Mógor needs to comply with these regulations to receive the funding. However, he does not want to harm the Hungarian economy, which is heavily reliant on the automotive sector (where Chinese companies play a significant role). Chinese companies also provide parts for German automakers like Audi and BMW. Therefore, it is likely that the issues will be resolved with minor penalties and compliance requirements rather than complete expulsion.
V. Diplomatic Balancing Act: Navigating among the EU, US, and Russia
Mógor’s foreign policy is based on practical balance:
- With the EU: He avoids being confrontational but prioritizes Hungarian national interests (for example, he does not compromise on Ukraine’s EU membership or immigration issues).
- With the US: As a “transactional” president, Trump is willing to cooperate as long as there are mutual benefits. Mógor will work with the US as long as it serves his interests.
- With Russia: He does not want to completely align with EU sanctions against Russia but continues to import Russian oil due to its lower cost.
In summary, Mógor’s goal is to use EU funding to solve domestic problems, implement limited reforms to stabilize public support, and maintain a balance among major powers while securing his own political position.