Summary of Key Points
Against the backdrop of an unrelenting US-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia is facing a dilemma of being "pressured from three sides": The Strait of Mandeb (the Red Sea route) is under threat from Houthi militants, the Strait of Hormuz (the Persian Gulf route) has been blocked again due to US airstrikes on Iran, and there is a risk of retaliation from Shiite militia forces in Iraq. These multiple pressures have made it extremely difficult for Saudi Arabia to export crude oil, not only driving up transportation costs but also potentially leading to higher global oil prices and increased tensions in the fuel supply.
1. The Strait of Mandeb: The "Western Gateway" to Saudi Crude Oil Exports Under Threat
The Strait of Mandeb is a narrow passage at the southern end of the Red Sea and serves as the primary western route for Saudi crude exports. After the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran in February this year, almost all of Saudi Arabia's crude oil was transported via the port of Jeddah to the rest of the world through this strait. However, recently, Houthi militants (anti-government forces from Yemen) have started causing problems: they first declared a maritime embargo on Saudi ships and attacked two Saudi oil tankers; later, there were reports that they intended to charge fees for passing vessels (although this was later denied, the actions have certainly scared off shipowners).
As a result, the volume of crude oil transported through the Strait of Mandeb has been cut in half! To avoid these risks, Saudi Arabia is considering using the Suez Canal, but this route is much more costly for Asian buyers. The tankers would have to circumnavigate the entire African continent, which not only adds an extra month to the voyage but also incurs additional fuel costs of $1.5 million (about 10 million RMB), in addition to a $1 million toll. All of these expenses will inevitably be passed on to consumers through higher oil prices.
2. The Strait of Hormuz: The Traditional "Eastern Gateway" Now Blocked
The Strait of Hormuz has long been the main route for Saudi crude exports. However, after US airstrikes on Iran resumed in July, this route was once again blocked, with daily oil shipments dropping from over 8 million barrels to less than 2 million barrels. Saudi Arabia had hoped to rely on the Strait of Mandeb as a backup, but now that even this route is unsafe, it is effectively trapped with both export routes blocked.
3. The Iraq Situation: Trouble in the "Backyard"
In addition to the two straits, the situation in Iraq, which is considered Saudi Arabia's "backyard," is also unstable. Recently, a coalition of US and Saudi forces attacked a base belonging to the Shiite militia group "People's Mobilization Organization" in Iraq, resulting in 20 deaths. These militias are supported by Iran and are likely to retaliate. Saudi Arabia has already intercepted drones originating from Iraq, with the aim of targeting its oil facilities. The Saudi Minister of Defense quickly stated that the actions were meant as a form of self-defense, but it is clear that any damage to these facilities would further exacerbate Saudi Arabia's problems with crude oil production and exports.
4. Triple Pressure Leads to Global Energy Market Tensions
Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest crude oil exporters, and any disruptions in its exports have a significant impact on the global energy market. European refiners are already reporting "exceptionally tight supplies of diesel and aviation fuel." What does this mean for consumers? It likely means higher oil prices, more expensive airfare, and potential shortages of fuel in some areas.
In short, Saudi Arabia is in a difficult position: it cannot export its oil effectively, and buyers are unable to obtain it. Naturally, global energy prices will rise as a result.
Conclusion
The "three-sided pressure" on Saudi Arabia reflects the broader geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East—the US-Iran rivalry, Houthi militant attacks against Saudi interests, and Shiite militia retaliation—all of which target crude oil, a vital commodity. For ordinary people, this means that fuel costs are likely to increase in the coming period, and air travel may become more expensive. There are currently no signs of these issues resolving any time soon.