Summary of Key Points
Over the past few years, the "next-generation economy" (focusing on businesses targeting young people) was a hot topic pursued by capital. However, this concept has now largely faded from popularity. The reasons for this change include the slowdown in the growth of the youth population due to aging, the slower increase in young people's purchasing power amidst macroeconomic trends, and, more importantly, the realization that generational differences have been greatly exaggerated. Many consumer needs are common across all age groups, making the theory of treating "young people" as a homogeneous group untenable.
I. Once: The "Businesses for Young People" Were a Target for Capital
Five to six years ago, investment experts and middle-level executives were anxious about not understanding young people, leading to the development of a set of methodologies surrounding the "next-generation economy." The belief was that young people's purchasing power would continue to grow and their behavior would be fundamentally different from that of adults; those who did not understand them would fall behind. Capital eagerly invested in related sectors: Bilibili was seen as the "spiritual home" for young people, Pop Mart became a representative of the next generation through its blind box products, and Helen's Restaurant went public as a "young people's tavern." The metaverse was also touted as a world exclusive to young people. Some even used pop culture references and anime memes as tests; those who did not answer correctly were mocked as "old-fashioned"—even interns born in the 1990s were considered outdated for not watching the latest shows. The anxiety that "not understanding young people would lead to failure" became a prevalent belief within the industry.
II. Now: The "Next-Generation Economy" Has cooled Down, and Capital Is Turning to "Age-Neutral Strategies"
In just a few years, the situation has completely reversed:
- Grain-related products (merchandise): Pop Mart is still popular, but no one argues that it only appeals to young people; its success relies on appealing to all age groups.
- Game industry: Revenue has reached new highs, but it is acknowledged that games are not exclusive to young people; in fact, young people do not contribute the majority of sales.
- AI sector: Whether it's productivity tools or AI companions, age is rarely discussed as a factor.
- Film industry: In the past, it was said that only young people watched movies; now, no one cares if films like "A Letter to Grandma" attract young audiences. Although the main audience for these films is younger, the themes are no longer tied to age.
Capital no longer focuses on generational differences but instead deliberately adopts an "age-neutral" approach.
III. Three Main Reasons for the Decline of the "Next-Generation Economy": Macro Trends and Corrective Cognitions
1. Aging population: The birth rate of young people has slowed down, meaning the pace of generational change is not as rapid, so capital no longer targets the "young people market" exclusively.
2. Macroeconomic changes: Young people's purchasing power has grown more slowly, and businesses are now focusing on retirees with pensions as potential customers.
3. Exaggerated generational differences: Humans are essentially similar in many ways (such as having love and empathy); there is no real mental barrier between different generations. For example, 80s-born people still enjoy anime, and authors from the 1970s/1980s may buy gacha toys with friends in their teens. One might choose the new anime "Furian: The Lost Princess" (2023), while the other picks the popular "Dragon Ball" from years ago—no one finds this incongruous, indicating that the idea of "young people-exclusive" products is baseless.
IV. What Were the Errors in the Original Theory?
1. Treating young people as a homogeneous group: There are significant differences among young people. For instance, it's absurd to label an intern born in the 1990s as "old-fashioned" simply because they don't watch certain shows.
2. Ignoring human commonalities: People from all generations share emotions and needs; there is no "reproductive isolation" based on age. For example, the author likes both the new girl group IVE and the older group Girls' Generation. According to the old theory, this would make the author both "young" and "old," showing that such a theory is inherently flawed.
V. A Lesson: Don't Be Misled by False Concepts; Focus on Real Needs
The decline of the "next-generation economy" teaches us that capital and media love to create new concepts, but many of them are misleading. The focus for future investment and business should shift away from hyping up age-related labels and towards addressing real, cross-ageal needs (such as grain products, AI, and high-quality content). We must also be wary of new "false concepts"—after all, the capital market will always create new sources of anxiety. The key is to determine whether these concepts align with human nature and market principles.
(The entire analysis is purely objective and contains no brand endorsements.)