Summary of Key Points
This report illustrates the global challenges in predicting typhoons by following the entire process of the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau’s “Typhoon Tracking Team”’s response to Typhoon “Hongxia.” Despite technological advancements, it highlights that typhoon paths can still deviate significantly. It also demonstrates the transformation of Guangdong’s disaster prevention system from a passive approach to a proactive one, which involves dynamically adjusting warnings and optimizing emergency responses to balance disaster safety with citizens’ lives in the context of frequent extreme weather events, learning to coexist with storms.
1. Typhoons: Why Are They So Hard to Predict?
Many people feel that typhoons are becoming more unpredictable, but this is not due to a decline in forecasting technology; rather, it is because global warming has made the atmospheric environment more unstable, and typhoons themselves have distinct personalities.
- Complex Influencing Factors: Typhoon paths are guided by atmospheric currents such as subtropical highs, but global warming causes these highs to become erratic. For example, when Typhoon “Hongxia” passed near Luzon Island in the Philippines, the land blocked moisture, disrupting the cyclone’s structure and causing it to shift westward. After entering the South China Sea, the abundance of moisture allowed it to strengthen suddenly (as with Typhoon “Wutipas” in 2014).
- No Two Typhoons Are the Same: Since 1949, more than 200 typhoons have hit Guangdong, each with a unique path and intensity. Even with extensive data, nature can still bring surprises—like “Hongxia,” which intensified from a weak typhoon to a Category 14 storm in just three days.
- Path Deviations Can Be Significant: A slight change in the typhoon’s trajectory can result in a significant difference in its landing location hundreds of kilometers later. For instance, “Hongxia” was initially predicted to hit the Pearl River Delta but then shifted eastward towards Jieyang, then westward towards Shanwei, and finally landed in Huidong.
2. Warnings Are Not Final: How to Adjust Them Dynamically?
Given the difficulty of predicting typhoons, Guangdong’s disaster prevention strategy has shifted from waiting for them to strike to proactive measures. The principle is “It’s better to take ten precautions and miss one risk”.
- Comprehensive Data Analysis: Meteorological agencies from China, the United States, and Japan use models for predictions, and forecasters adjust their forecasts based on all available data. For “Hongxia,” initial predictions pointed towards the Pearl River Delta, but later updates corrected this to Jieyang. Now, the accuracy of predictions has improved to within 50 kilometers.
- Early Emergency Response: Jieyang hadn’t experienced a direct typhoon in 22 years, but when “Hongxia” was still hundreds of kilometers away, a Level 2 emergency response was initiated in Huilai. Even if the typhoon did not hit Jieyang, the warning remained in effect because its circulation affected an area larger than 200 kilometers, potentially causing landslides and other secondary disasters.
- Interconnected Warning Systems: The meteorological bureau provides data, which is used by disaster prevention authorities to determine response levels, and various departments implement measures (such as suspending activities in the Red Bay of Shanwei). These actions are often timed strategically; for example, if a typhoon is expected to land in the early morning, control measures might be implemented at 3 PM to avoid disrupting daily life.
3. The Typhoon Tracking Team: Not Just For Fun, but for Accuracy
The tracking team’s role is not just to observe; they act as verifiers of forecast accuracy and scouts of disaster situations.
- Critical Tasks: They go to the forefront of the typhoon to measure wind speeds, wave heights, and assess damage, providing valuable data to the meteorological bureau. For example, after “Hongxia” passed, they observed massive waves in the Red Bay of Shanwei and documented how rocks were blown onto roads, which helped improve future forecasts.
- Progress from Inaccurate Predictions: In the past, large forecast errors meant the team would travel hundreds of kilometers in vain. With improved roads and more accurate predictions, they can adjust their routes promptly (for example, traveling over 1000 kilometers from Guangzhou to Jieyang to Shanwei). Feng Bingxiong, who tracked 56 typhoons, participated in this mission as part of his final assignment before retirement, reflecting the advancement of forecasting technology.
4. Extreme Weather is Becoming More Frequent and Intense:
“Hongxia” is not an isolated case; extreme weather events have become more intense in recent years.
- Faster Storms: “Hongxia” intensified from a weak typhoon to a Category 14 storm in just six days. In Jieyang, the rainfall in May was only 20% of the annual average, but on June 13, it fell as much as one-third of the annual total (600-700 mm), causing direct losses of 200 million yuan.
- More Precise and Flexible Disaster Prevention: Emergency responses must be both accurate and flexible. For example, implementing measures at staggered times can balance safety with daily life, and clarifying responsibilities among departments ensures timely updates.
- Respecting Nature and Learning to Coexist: Typhoons are part of the ecosystem in the Pearl River Delta; while they bring moisture that forms plains, their increased intensity tests our ability to adapt. The tracking team emphasizes that we must learn to coexist with these storms using more accurate data and better warnings.
5. The Future Challenges: Will More Storms Come?
The report mentions that shortly after “Hongxia,” a new typhoon embryo formed in the Pacific, eventually becoming the powerful Category 17 storm “Baihaidun.” This highlights that extreme weather may become the norm, requiring continuous improvements in forecasting technology and emergency response mechanisms. Everyone must also enhance their disaster prevention awareness, as learning to coexist with storms is an essential survival skill.
This report does not discuss finance, but the principles of risk management it outlines are relevant for everyone. Facing uncertain risks (such as extreme weather or economic fluctuations), proactive planning, dynamic adjustment, and balancing benefits and costs are the best approaches. As the tracking team said: “Storms will pass, but we must be prepared.”