Core Summary
Toyota's sales in China have experienced a "five consecutive declines," with a 26.9% year-on-year decrease in June, resulting in a total shortfall of 143,000 vehicles sold in the first half of the year. Its luxury brand Lexus, once the leader among imported luxury cars, has seen its sales accelerate downward since the second quarter, with the year-on-year decline expanding to 40% in June. While rising gasoline prices are cited as one of the reasons, a more fundamental issue is the diminishing competitiveness of traditional fuel vehicles in the face of the new energy revolution.
Detailed Analysis
1. Toyota's Sales Decline in China (Five Consecutive Months): A Loss of 140,000 Vehicles in the First Half of the Year
Toyota sold 115,300 vehicles in China in June, a nearly 26.9% decrease from the same period last year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The total sales for the first half of the year amounted to 694,700 units, 143,000 fewer than last year. This figure is quite significant—equivalent to the annual sales of a mid-sized domestic car manufacturer. The continuous decline is not incidental and indicates that Toyota's market share is being eroded.
2. Lexus Can No Longer Hold Its Own: From "Stable" to "Accelerating Decline," with a 40% Drop in June
As Toyota's luxury brand, Lexus was previously relatively resilient, selling 70,600 units in the first half of the year, a 10% decline compared to Toyota's overall 17.1% drop, and it still maintained its position as the top imported luxury car. However, the situation took a sharp turn in the second quarter: only 10,300 units were sold in June, showing a three-month consecutive month-on-month decrease and a year-on-year decline of 40%, an increase of two percentage points from May. The fact that even Lexus is struggling indicates a rapid shift in consumer preferences away from fuel vehicles.
3. Rising Gasoline Prices as a "Surface Reason"
Toyota's report mentions that rising gasoline prices have affected sales, which makes sense—higher fuel costs increase the cost of owning fuel vehicles. For example, if filling up the tank used to cost 300 yuan but now costs 400 yuan, it becomes less economical in the long run. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Domestic new energy vehicles, such as those from BYD, Tesla, and Li Auto, are selling well due to their competitive prices and advanced technology. Toyota's new energy models (like the all-electric bZ series) have not been successful, leading consumers to opt for more cost-effective new energy options.
4. Toyota's Dilemma Reflects the "Winter of Fuel Vehicles"
Toyota is the world's largest fuel vehicle manufacturer, but its continuous decline in China, even affecting Lexus, reflects a broader trend: the market share of fuel vehicles is being rapidly eroded by new energy vehicles. In the first half of this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 30% (three out of every ten vehicles sold were new energy). Toyota has been slow to enter the new energy arena, with late launches and lack of technological advantages, resulting in falling behind. This is not just Toyota's problem; it represents a "transformation crisis" that all traditional fuel vehicle companies must face. Failing to keep up with the new energy trend could lead to market elimination.
Conclusion
Toyota's declining sales are essentially a reflection of the adaptive challenges faced by traditional fuel vehicles in the new energy era. Rising gasoline prices are just a catalyst; the real challenge is that consumers have already made their choice, shifting towards more economical and intelligent new energy vehicles. If Toyota does not accelerate its transition to new energy, its future may become even more difficult.