Summary of Key Points
Domestic refined oil prices will increase at 24:00 today, with the price of 92-octane gasoline rising by 0.52 yuan per liter. Private car owners will spend an additional 26 yuan to fill up a 50-liter fuel tank; the price hike is due to fluctuations in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran conflict and attacks on oil vessels by Houthi militants. This is the tenth price adjustment of 2026, with the annual pattern being ten increases, four decreases, and one hold-up (no change). The next price adjustment (on August 14) is likely to be a decrease.
Detailed Analysis
1. **How much has the price increased this time? Both car owners and logistics costs have gone up**
The increase in prices is quite straightforward:
- Price per liter: 92-octane gasoline has risen by 0.52 yuan/liter, 95-octane by 0.55 yuan/liter, and 0-diesel by 0.56 yuan/liter.
- Impact on private car owners: For a typical family car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost an extra 26 yuan (50 × 0.52 yuan), which is roughly the price of a cup of milk tea; if driving 50 kilometers per day, the additional cost per week is about 10 yuan.
- Impact on the logistics industry: A large truck carrying 50 tons will spend an extra 22.4 yuan for every 100 kilometers traveled, so a 1000-kilometer journey will result in an additional cost of 224 yuan, posing a significant financial burden on logistics companies.
2. **Why have oil prices gone up again? Geopolitical conflicts are causing concerns about oil supply**
International oil prices are the driving factor behind domestic price adjustments. The main reason for this increase is geopolitical tensions leading to supply concerns:
- Recurrent US-Iran conflict: Military tensions between the two countries have escalated, and there are fears that Iran's oil exports will be affected (Iran is an important oil-producing country).
- Houthi militant activities: Attacks on Saudi oil vessels and threats to blockade the Strait of Malacca (through which 10% of the world's oil passes) have raised concerns about the ability to transport oil, leading to higher prices.
- Although there were reports of potential negotiations between the US and Iran that caused a temporary drop in prices, overall, oil prices have mostly risen over the period, making domestic adjustments necessary.
3. **How many price adjustments have there been this year? The trend is more increases than decreases**
As of now, there have been 15 price adjustments in 2026:
- Ten increases, four decreases, and one hold-up: Ten upward adjustments, four downward adjustments, and one period with no change (when the adjustment was deemed too minor).
- Overall trend: Oil prices are generally on the rise. For example, the price of 92-octane gasoline might have started at just over 6 yuan per liter and is now likely to be around 7 yuan per liter, meaning car owners' fuel costs are increasing.
4. **Will there be a decrease in the next price adjustment? Analysts predict a possibility**
The next price adjustment will occur on August 14, and industry analysts believe that there is a high likelihood of a decrease:
- Reasons: The US and Iran are still in negotiations, and Houthi militants have denied plans to blockade the Strait of Malacca, which could ease geopolitical tensions. If international oil prices fall as a result, domestic refined oil prices will likely follow.
- However, it's important to note that if the US-Iran conflict escalates again or another oil vessel is attacked, prices could rise again. Therefore, the next adjustment will depend on future geopolitical developments.
5. **How are domestic oil prices determined? They are based on changes in international crude oil prices**
There is a specific rule for adjusting domestic refined oil prices: adjustments are made every 10 working days based on the comprehensive change rate of international crude oil prices.
- During this period, the change rate has been positive (up to 17.68%), indicating that international oil prices have increased significantly compared to the previous round, which is why domestic prices have gone up. If the change rate is negative, prices will decrease; if the increase is too small (e.g., less than 50 yuan per ton), there will be no adjustment.
- In simple terms: When international oil prices rise, domestic prices rise; when they fall, domestic prices fall, although the adjustments are not immediate.
With this explanation, the reasons behind the recent price increase become clear: geopolitical conflicts have pushed up international oil prices, leading to higher costs for car owners and logistics companies. However, there is a possibility of a decrease in the next price adjustment. It might be a good time to fill up your fuel tank before the next adjustment! (If you can make it in time.)