Summary of Key Points
In July 2026, the Long March 10B rocket successfully used a net on a maritime recovery vessel to capture its returned first-stage booster, marking China's first successful controlled recovery of a rocket's first stage (and the world's first such recovery using a marine net system). Previously, the maiden flights of the Zhuque-3 (private) and Long March 12A (state-owned) rockets failed to achieve a stable recovery of their first stages. Now, the second flight missions of these two rockets are not about competing to be "number two"; instead, they aim to test landing leg recovery technologies, the effectiveness of fault improvements, the capabilities of private rocket manufacturers, and the collaboration between commercial and state-owned entities. The focus of the industry has shifted from competing for first place to more practical issues such as whether reuse truly saves costs and which technical approaches are more reliable.
1. Net-based Recovery vs. Landing Leg Recovery: A Comparison of Two Recovery Methods
The core goal of rocket recovery is to bring back the lowest-stage booster from space and control its landing location. Currently, there are two methods being used in China:
- Net-based recovery (Long March 10B): The first-stage booster flies over the sea, uses engines to slow down, and small fins (grid fins) to adjust its direction before being caught by a 144-meter-long “Pilot” recovery vessel with a flexible net. The advantage of this method is that the rocket does not need to carry landing legs, saving weight; however, it requires extensive maritime support (large ships, tugboats, ports, etc.), which increases costs on land.
- Landing leg recovery (Zhuque-3, Long March 12A): The rocket carries its own landing legs and uses engine thrust to slow down in the final stage, allowing it to land precisely on a land or sea platform. This method is more technically demanding (requiring precise control of speed, attitude, and landing location), but the Falcon 9 has proven that it can be reused frequently with flexible recovery locations.
While the net-based method has been successful, the landing leg approach has not yet succeeded. If Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A's second flight missions are successful, China will have two verified recovery methods.
2. Learning from Past Failures: Was the Cause of the First Failure Correctly Identified?
The maiden flights were designed to test the systems, while the second flights aim to confirm whether the improvements were effective:
- Zhuque-3’s first flight: Everything went well until an unexpected combustion occurred in the last few kilometers, preventing a soft landing. LandSpace stated that the issue had been identified, but only a successful second flight will confirm if the fixes were adequate.
- Long March 12A’s first flight: The official report only mentioned a recovery failure without specifying the exact problem; external speculation pointed to a possible failure in the reverse-thrust ignition system, but without telemetry data, this remains unconfirmed.
The key to the second flights is to replicate the successful aspects of the previous flights and address any remaining issues. If the same faults occur, it will mean that the previous improvements were ineffective.
3. Private Rockets: Moving from Claims to Actual Results
In the past, private rockets attracted attention by claiming to use liquid oxygen and methane or designing landing legs. Now that state-owned rockets have successfully recovered their boosters, these claims are no longer novel, and investors want to see tangible results:
- Zhuque-3’s second flight: This is the first attempt by a private rocket to recover its orbital stage. A successful outcome would demonstrate that private companies can compete effectively in the space industry; otherwise, it may raise doubts about their capabilities, especially since their valuations were based on the potential for recovery and reuse.
- Long March 12A: Although the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) does not require a successful recovery for listing, the outcome of Long March 12A’s second flight will influence investors’ decisions regarding further funding and the time required to achieve stable reuse.
4. Commercial Engines in State-Owned Programs: Breaking the “Internal Circles”
For the first time, a commercial engine from JiuZhou YunJian was used in the Long March 12A’s first stage:
- Previously, rocket engines were developed internally by research institutes. Now, commercial engines are being integrated into state-owned programs, facing challenges such as compatibility, quality assurance, and integration. If this model proves successful, it could enable commercial engine manufacturers to supply multiple rockets, reducing R&D costs for both parties.
- The failure of Long March 12A’s first flight cannot be attributed solely to the engine; recovery involves multiple systems including propellant, navigation, and thermal protection. However, a successful second flight would solidify the role of commercial engines in the program.
- Zhuque-3 uses a fully domestically developed approach, with engines, rocket bodies, and recovery systems all designed and manufactured in-house. The efficiency of these two models (external collaboration vs. vertical integration) will be determined by the outcome of the second flights.
5. Recovery Is Just the Beginning: Reuse Is the Real Cost-Saver
Recovery is just the first step; the real question is whether the rocket can be flown again and at what cost:
- The recovered boosters must be inspected for structural damage, engine functionality, and the need for thermal protection updates. If each recovery requires disassembly and repair, the cost of reuse may be comparable to that of building a new rocket.
- Long March 10B has just been recovered and has not yet flown again; Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A also need to wait for inspection results. Only successful re-flights will demonstrate that recovery truly reduces costs.
The focus is no longer on who comes in second, but on whether the landing legs can function reliably, whether commercial engines can provide reliable performance, and whether reuse is economically viable. These factors are crucial for determining the long-term success of China’s commercial space program.
In summary: The Long March 10B’s successful recovery using a net system marks a significant milestone, but China’s rocket recovery efforts are just beginning. The real test lies in whether the landing legs can be made reliable, whether commercial and private entities can contribute effectively, and whether reuse can truly reduce costs. This is not just a technical issue but also a competition of business and industrial models.