Summary of Key Points
In the first half of 2026, AI-generated short dramas experienced explosive growth, accounting for over 95% of all new short dramas on the internet. However, the success rate was extremely low, with less than 0.5% (only one out of every 1,000 AI-produced dramas becoming a hit). Real-person starred short dramas were significantly impacted, with actors facing the dilemma of licensing their appearances (worring about their images being misused or their careers being compromised). The industry has become increasingly competitive, characterized by homogenized content, rising production costs, and reduced revenue sharing among platforms. Future trends indicate a shift towards higher-quality productions, international expansion, and cross-industry collaborations (such as integrating with gaming IPs, education, and e-commerce). ByteDance is dominating the market due to its advantages in channels and tools.
Why Do AI Short Dramas Have So Much Volume but Few Hits?
The reason behind the popularity of AI short dramas is simple: they are low-cost and can be produced quickly. The cost for an AI-generated drama ranges from hundreds of thousands to a few million yuan, compared to the millions required for real-person dramas, and the production time is also significantly shorter. However, this has led to an oversupply:
- Exponential Growth: Over 220,000 new AI short dramas were released on the internet in the first half of the year, with Douyin adding 1,300 new dramas daily in March, resulting in one drama going live every 20 seconds during peak times.
- Low Success Rate: Only about 0.124% of 1,000 AI-generated dramas become hits. The reason is that most use the same formula: a visual hook after 3 seconds, a crisis moment after 20 seconds, and an emotional climax after 65 seconds. As soon as one story becomes popular, dozens of imitations emerge, quickly exhausting user interest and leading to lower click-through rates, which in turn affects platform recommendations.
In other words, it's like watching ten similar dramas about "a humble man's rise to success" or "an immortal's rebirth" every day—would you still want to watch them? With limited traffic, the majority of these dramas fail to attract viewers and end up forgotten.
The Dilemma for Real-Person Actors: Licensing Their Faces or Losing Income?
The emergence of AI short dramas has severely impacted real-person starred dramas, with the number of new releases dropping from 1,934 to 1,629 per month. Many actors in Hengdian have no roles to film. As a result, some are considering licensing their facial images to AI companies, but there are many concerns:
- Fear of Being "Buyed Out: Actors like Qi Ziqiao have chosen not to sign contracts because some companies purchase the rights instead of just licensing them, potentially using their faces in works they don't approve of, which could affect their future careers.
- Limited Opportunities for Less-Famous Actors: AI companies prefer well-known actors (e.g., Wu Qihua) due to their visual appeal, making it harder for less-famous actors to get opportunities.
- New Paths: Some actors are exploring alternative careers in AI-related fields such as motion capture and emotion synthesis, which offer lower risks and income, though they differ from traditional acting.
In summary, actors must either risk licensing their faces or find new ways to make a living.
The Competition in the AI Short Drama Industry: Rising Costs and Homogenized Content
What once was a "blue ocean" has now turned into a "red sea":
- Homogenized Content: Once a hit drama emerges, multiple versions are produced with just minor changes (e.g., changing the protagonist's name), leading to viewer fatigue.
- Increasing Costs: Production costs have risen from 1,000 yuan per minute to 3,000–5,000 yuan, forcing smaller companies to rely on low-budget initial drafts and expensive post-production adjustments to save money.
- Reduced Revenue Sharing: Platforms no longer offer guaranteed payments; instead, only the top-quality dramas receive higher shares for the same amount of views.
As a result, most AI short dramas are not profitable, and producers must rely on creating series (e.g., producing a second part of "The Humble Son-in-Law") to increase revenue.
Future Trends: From Wild Growth to Quality-Oriented Development
The future of AI short dramas does not mean a "cold winter," but rather a shift towards more refined content. The industry will move in the following directions:
- Quality Improvement: Platforms will prioritize high-quality content, focusing on scripts, characters, and emotional resonance over technical gimmicks.
- International Expansion: Domestic companies are expanding overseas, adapting their dramas for local audiences (e.g., in Southeast Asia).
- Cross-Industry Integration: AI short dramas will be integrated into various fields such as gaming (adaptations of popular games), education (video-based courses), and e-commerce (product promotional videos).
- Regulatory Guidance: The China Internet Audio-Visual Association is recommending themes related to health and wellness, and AI creations should better reflect Chinese cultural values when targeting international audiences.
ByteDance will continue to dominate the market due to its extensive reach, innovative tools (like the Seedance model and Jimeng AI), and a comprehensive range of IP rights. It controls almost the entire production and distribution chain.
In Conclusion
The period of rapid expansion for AI short dramas has come to an end. Survival now depends on the quality of the content and new business models. Both actors and companies need to adapt to these changes.