第一财经

AMD's revenue forecast fell short of the highest expectations, causing the stock to drop by more than 9% after the market closed.

原文:AMD收入展望不及最高预期,盘后跌超9%

AMD's 2026 Second Quarter Financial Report: A Year of Success

AMD’s financial report for the second quarter of 2026 was a resounding success, with both revenue (US$11.5 billion) and net profit (US$2.3 billion) reaching record highs. The year-over-year growth rates were 50% and 163%, respectively, and the gross margin also increased to 54%, indicating a stronger ability to generate profits. The data center business was the key driver of this performance, accounting for nearly 60% of total revenue and doubling year-on-year, significantly outperforming expectations. The company has raised its growth targets for the future, anticipating accelerated growth in the data center segment in the second half of the year. However, AMD’s stock price tumbled by more than 9% after the market closed, mainly due to investors’ overly ambitious expectations.

Breakdown and Analysis:

1. **Data Center Business: The Money-Maker in the AI Boom**

AMD’s most impressive performance came from its data center business, which generated revenue of US$6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total sales, with a year-over-year increase of 107%. The surge in demand for AMD’s server chips (EPYC CPUs) and AI acceleration chips (Instinct GPUs) from giants like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud is a major factor behind this growth. These chips are essential for running AI models. Additionally, AMD’s rack-level systems, such as Helios (which integrate CPUs and GPUs into a comprehensive solution), are expected to start generating revenue by the end of the third quarter, with even higher sales in the fourth quarter. The company has set ambitious goals for 2027, aiming to double data center sales and increase server CPU revenue by more than 70%.

2. **Other Business Segments: Mixed Performance**

  • Client and Gaming Business: This segment only grew by 6% year-over-year, with gaming revenue declining by 31% to US$779 million, mainly due to weaker demand for custom chips used in gaming consoles (such as the PS5 and Xbox).
  • Embedded Business: Revenue from this segment increased by 19% year-over-year, reflecting stable demand for chips used in automotive and industrial equipment, serving as a stabilizing factor for AMD’s overall performance.

3. **Raising Growth Targets**

AMD’s CEO, Lisa Su, previously projected annual revenue growth of 35% over the next 3-5 years; now the company has raised that target. Revenue for the third quarter is expected to be around US$13 billion (with a range of +/−US$300 million), representing a year-over-year increase of 41%, and the gross margin is projected to rise to 56%. She also highlighted that by 2030, the global computing market will be worth trillions of dollars, with AI accelerators accounting for US$1.4 trillion and CPUs for US$220 billion. AMD is well-positioned in both of these areas, taking advantage of this growing market trend.

4. **Impact of Export Restrictions**

AMD faced challenges with export restrictions, which resulted in inventory buildup and additional costs (US$800 million) due to the U.S. ban on selling its Instinct MI308 GPUs to certain countries. However, these issues did not hinder overall growth, as the robust performance of its data center business more than offset these challenges.

5. **Stock Price Volatility**

AMD’s stock price rose by 7% on the day of the report but fell by over 9% after the market closed. The reason is simple: investors had set their expectations too high. Although the financial results exceeded analysts’ average forecasts (e.g., third-quarter revenue of US$13 billion vs. an average estimate of $12.5 billion), some analysts were expecting as much as $14 billion. Given that AMD’s stock price had already risen significantly, investors were disappointed and sold their shares, leading to the decline.

In Summary:

AMD is clearly benefiting from the AI revolution, with its data center business driving strong growth. However, market expectations are now so high that whether it can continue to exceed them will depend on the pace of AI demand and AMD’s ability to meet production capacity.