Summary of Key Points
Embodied intelligence is a current hot topic, but there is a divergence in performance between the secondary and primary markets: Concept stocks in the secondary market have generally corrected, while companies with actual robot business revenues and solid performance have been more resilient to declines; however, the valuations of unlisted embodied intelligence companies in the primary market are still soaring, though there are signs of differentiation. The market logic is shifting from "listening to stories" to "looking at data"—financial reports, orders, cash receipts, and repurchases have become key indicators for assessing value. Future events such as Yuzhu's listing price, the mass production pace of Optimus, and industrial capital investment in capacity will be crucial determinants of market trends.
Detailed Analysis
1. Three Waves of Market Activity: Fewer Companies Rising, Wider Range of Declines
Since the beginning of the year, the embodied intelligence sector has experienced three waves of interest:
- First Wave (January): Preparations for the Spring Festival Gala robot program led to stock price increases for 22 companies, reaching new highs for the year.
- Second Wave (May): Expectations for Tesla's Optimus production led to only 9 companies hitting new highs.
- Third Wave (July): Yuzhu Technology was approved for the Science and Technology Innovation Board, leaving only 4 companies with new highs.
However, when the market corrected, almost the entire sector fell, with most concept stocks declining by more than 30% from their peak. As of August 5th, only 6 out of 30 companies have continued to rise since the beginning of the year, and the sector's average decline reached 24.4% (as of July 30th). Although there has been a recent rebound, the divergence is clear.
In plain language: Market enthusiasm for embodied intelligence is cooling down, and investors are becoming more selective. Initially, any company related to this field saw price increases, but now only a few with tangible products are performing well; even those merely associated with the concept are experiencing significant declines.
2. Companies with Actual Revenues: Solid Performance is Key to Withstanding Declines
Among the 15 companies that have disclosed their robot business revenues, they were the most resilient during the correction. However, there are three subgroups:
- Top Group (Strong Performance and Stock Price): Green Harmonic (up 77.4% since the beginning of the year). This company is a leader in domestic robotic joint components (harmonic reducers), with related revenues accounting for over 80% of its total sales in 2025, and its net profit has doubled, allowing its stock price to withstand declines.
- Second Group (Stock Price Rising, Performance to Be Observed): Estun (up 44.6%), Lens Technology (up 16.9%), and Aubizhongguang (up 21.6%). Estun is the leading domestic manufacturer of industrial robots, with its mid-year profits increasing by 21 times; Lens Technology sold over 10,000 intelligent robots; Aubizhongguang supplies products to companies like Zhiyuan and UbiSelect, though their recent gains have slowed.
- Third Group (Revenues Present, but Stock Prices Falling): Eleven companies (such as UbiSelect and Inovance Technology) experienced declines for various reasons:
- Difficulties in Cash Receipts: UbiSelect's 2025 revenue target is 2 billion yuan, but it has accounts receivable of 340 million yuan over three years and a net loss of 790 million yuan.
- Low Revenue Contribution from New Business: Inovance Technology's robot revenues account for only 4% of its total sales, so its stock price is influenced by its main business.
- Impact of Price Wars in the Automotive Market: Companies like Hesai and Speedtronics are using automotive lidars in robots, but price cuts in this market have reduced their gross margins, affecting their robot business.
- Still in the Investment Phase: Companies like Lingzhi Intelligent Manufacturing have not secured Tesla orders, and EFT is still losing money; Jizhijia's valuation cannot support its growth prospects.
In plain language: Having revenues does not guarantee a rise in stock prices; it depends on whether the revenue is profitable, its proportion to total sales, and how quickly it is collected—these are the real determinants of stock price resilience.
3. Pure Concept Stocks: Rise Quickly with Good Stories, Fall Faster Without Progress
The 16 pure concept stocks (with no significant robot revenues in their financial reports) rose due to expectations of being part of the industry chain but fell even more sharply:
- Linked to Tesla: Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group were rumored to be part of Optimus' supply chain, but Sanhua was still in the sample delivery phase (with no revenue), and Top Group's robot revenues were only 13.59 million yuan (with a 23% decrease in gross margin), resulting in a 30% decline since the beginning of the year.
- Linked to Domestic Manufacturers: Fenglong rose sharply after UbiSelect invested, but there was no substantial synergy, leading to a quick decline; Xingye Technology saw a sharp rise due to an electronic skin partnership, although its robot business was not separately reported.
- Core Component Suppliers: Companies like Ambelon (six-dimensional force sensors) and Wuzhou Chunxin (screws) provided samples for testing but did not secure significant orders, so their stock prices ultimately reflected the performance of their main businesses.
In plain language: Pure concept stocks are like castles in the air—they soar when news emerges but crash without solid backing. Investors in these stocks often act as "bailouts."
4. Unlisted Companies: Wild Valuations in the Primary Market, but Divergence is Clear
Unlisted embodied intelligence companies have seen soaring valuations: Only 6 companies were valued at over 10 billion yuan for 2025, and this number increased to 18 by June 2026, with total financing exceeding 96 billion yuan. However, there is clear differentiation:
- Companies with Performance: Yuzhu Technology's IPO valuation was 42 billion yuan (up from 8 billion yuan in two years), with expected 2025 revenues of 1.7 billion yuan and non-recurring net profits of 590 million yuan. However, 73.6% of its revenue comes from research clients, and industry applications account for only 9%; its average stock price dropped from 590,000 yuan to 160,000 yuan.
- Companies Preparing for IPOs: Zhiyuan aims for an IPO in Hong Kong with a valuation of 40-50 billion HKD, based on expected 2025 revenues of 1.05 billion yuan and shipments of over 5,000 units.
- Primary Market Financing: Galaxy General's valuation was 23 billion yuan, as it entered CATL's production line; however, some companies (such as Kepler) have seen their valuations shrink or faced financial issues.
In plain language: The primary market is still focused on expectations, but investors are now more selective. Companies with actual revenues and proven capabilities receive higher valuations, while those without them are being phased out.
5. Changing Market Logic: From Concepts to Real Performance
The market logic has changed. In 2025, companies could see sudden price increases based on agreements or sample deliveries, but in 2026, financial reports, orders, and cash receipts will be decisive. The number of primary market financings decreased by 31.7%, but the amount per financing increased by 46.8%—funding is flowing to companies with tangible data.
Three Key Future Events:
1. Yuzhu's Listing Price: This will provide a public reference for valuations in both the primary and secondary markets.
2. Optimus Mass Production Pace: This will determine when supply chain orders will turn into actual revenue.
3. Industrial Capital Investment in Capacity: This will affect the performance of upstream companies.
In plain language: Embodied intelligence is no longer about "telling stories"; it's about delivering real results. Only those that can provide tangible performance will succeed in the long run.
Conclusion
Embodied intelligence is a future trend, but the market has shifted from frenzy to rationality. For individual investors, it's best to avoid pure concept stocks and focus on companies with actual revenues and solid performance. For the industry, the ability to implement technologies and advance commercialization will be key competitive factors. The ultimate winners in this sector will be those that can transform concepts into profitable realities.