Summary of Key Points
In just 23 years, our country has transitioned from a state of mild aging to moderate aging, a process that typically takes 40 to 70 years in Western developed countries. Currently, there are over 320 million people aged 60 and above, with one person aged 65 and above for every 4.3 working-age individuals. The number of elderly care beds has been declining for three consecutive years, but this is not a sign of reduced supply; rather, it reflects the market's elimination of inefficient institutions and a shift in the industry from quantitative expansion to quality improvement. At the policy level, efforts are being made to address the challenges of aging through the establishment of a three-tier elderly care network and support for affordable services.
1. Aging is occurring much faster than in the West; moderate aging has already arrived
The pace of aging in our country is astonishing: it took only 23 years for the proportion of people aged 60 and above to rise from 10% (the starting point of mild aging) to 23%. In contrast, the United States took more than 70 years, and Germany and the United Kingdom each took over 40 years. Today, there are 320 million people aged 60 and above, with 224 million aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.9% of the total population. This trend is set to accelerate: nearly 14 million new elderly individuals will be added each year during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reaching over 400 million by 2035 and nearly 500 million by the middle of this century, leading to a situation of severe aging.
2. More than one elderly person per four working-age individuals: increasing pressure on families and society
The term “elderly dependency ratio” may sound complex, but it simply refers to the number of elderly people that need to be supported by working-age individuals. Currently, this ratio is 23.1, meaning that for every 4.3 people aged 15-64, there is one person aged 65 and above. This has risen by 8 percentage points in just nine years. What does this mean?
- For families: Children with only one parent must care for both parents, facing greater pressures;
- For society: Pension expenditures will increase, placing a heavier burden on the working population.
3. The decrease in elderly care beds is not a bad thing; it's market consolidation
In recent years, the number of elderly care beds has been declining. In 2020, there were a peak of 8.23 million beds, and by 2025, this number had dropped to 7.67 million, with only 23.7 beds per thousand elderly people (the lowest level in ten years). This is not due to a shortage of supply but rather a market adjustment:
- Some elderly care institutions in rural areas and suburbs were unoccupied or did not meet safety standards and were phased out;
- Institutions are now moving to city centers for better accessibility, but the limited space there means fewer beds;
- In the future, institutions with good locations and services (such as those offering medical care) will be more popular.
4. Policies are shifting towards quality improvement
To address aging, the government is no longer focusing solely on increasing the number of beds but on ensuring they are of high quality:
- Top-level guidance: The General Offices of the Communist Party and the State Council have prioritized the care of disabled elderly people and revised laws to encourage communities to provide better services;
- Three-tier network: A three-tier elderly care system is being established at the county, township, and village levels by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period—comprehensive platforms in counties, service centers in townships, and facilities in villages, ensuring that elderly people can receive care near their homes;
- Specific measures include upgrading equipment, training caregivers, developing smart technology for elderly care (e.g., remote monitoring), and supporting chain brands that offer affordable and professional services.
5. A critical turning point during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Elderly care will become a social focus
Over the next five years, the elderly dependency ratio is expected to exceed the child dependency ratio. This means that more social resources will be allocated to elderly care: communities will provide additional services such as meal assistance and bathing help, hospitals will expand their geriatric departments, and businesses will develop products suitable for the elderly (e.g., anti-slip shoes and smart walking aids). For ordinary people, having elderly relatives at home will make it easier to access professional care services; younger individuals will also need to plan for their own elderly care needs in advance.