Summary of Key Points
The success of "Black Myth:悟空" has acted like a "seed," igniting enthusiasm within the domestic single-player game industry. Developers have been inspired to start their own businesses, capital and large companies have begun to make investments, and players' willingness to pay for domestically produced buyout-style games has increased. However, the industry has yet to see a second phenomenon-level product, and investment remains cautious, as not all teams are suited for creating 3A (AAA) titles of high quality. The next potential breakthrough may occur between 2027 and 2028, when a batch of new games is expected to be released and help determine the market's turning point.
I. "Black Myth" as a Boost: Giving Developers the Confidence to Dream Again
Before "Black Myth," the domestic single-player game market was small, and many people had lost hope. Its success has provided a commercial model for others to follow:
- Entrepreneurs Inspired: Pu Guannan, CEO of Xingchen Wushuang, decided to develop a 3A science fiction single-player game called "Time Whisper" after completing the game in just two days. Wu Xia, a veteran with 15 years of experience in the industry and founder of Chengdu Jianmaoxiong, returned to Chengdu to start a business in 2022, believing in the potential of similar games like "Black Myth." Liu Yang from Gu Shen Lab also aspires to create something on the scale of MiHoYo.
- Industry Confidence Revived: Developers say that without "Black Myth," no one would have entered the industry; many have flocked to the single-player game sector in the past two years. Booths for games like "A Gong Jian" and "Jin Yi Wei" at ChinaJoy were crowded with players, and discussions about these games surged on forums.
- Advances in Industrialization: In the past, games had to rely on cultural content to attract players, but now, titles like "Black Myth" first capture attention with high-quality graphics and gameplay before conveying their story. For example, Liu Qiwei, the producer of "Jin Yi Wei," emphasizes the importance of focusing on game mechanics first before adding depth.
II. Capital and Large Companies Entering the Scene
The success of "Black Myth" has shown that domestic single-player games can be profitable, prompting capital and large companies to get involved:
- Investment Institutions Engaged: GCL's 4Divinity, a subsidiary of Singapore-based company GCL, increased its investment in domestic single-player games after participating in the distribution of "Black Myth." They also get involved early in project development, marketing, and international expansion, taking teams to overseas events like the Cologne Game Show to boost awareness.
- Large Companies Participating: Tencent has invested in projects like "Shadow Blade Zero" and "Annihilation Tide," while Sony supports domestic games through its "China Star Program." NetEase is developing its own buyout-style single-player game, "Gui Tang," considering 3A titles as a necessary step towards globalization.
- Clear Goals: Everyone is looking for the next "MiHoYo"; Liu Yang directly states that they aim to seize this opportunity, and GCL predicts a breakthrough between 2027 and 2028 due to the release of multiple projects initiated in recent years.
III. Players Changing: More Willing to Pay for Domestic Buyout Games
"Black Myth" has attracted many mobile game players to the single-player market:
- Increased Willingness to Pay: In 2025, five domestic buyout-style games sold over one million copies each, setting a new record, including "Escape from Yakov" and "Ming Mo: Yuan Xu Zhi Yu."
- High Expectations: "Shadow Blade Zero," the most anticipated game after "Black Myth," has received 1.62 million pre-orders on Steam, ranking at the top of global sales expectations for unreleased games. The industry hopes it will sell over one million copies and become another major success.
- Market Potential Unleashed: GCL sees the domestic single-player market as an untapped opportunity, with local developers having the technical capability but lacking in IP management and marketing experience; they aim to fill this gap.
IV. Excitement Amidst Cautious Thinking
Although the industry is booming, there are also clear challenges:
- **Lack of a Second "Black Myth": Revenue from console games has decreased by 7% year-over-year (due to the decline in "Black Myth's popularity), and more products are needed to confirm a market turnaround.
- The Challenge of Creating 3A Games: Developing 3A games requires significant investment and a long development cycle (projects like "A Gong Jian" and "Jin Yi Wei" won't be available until 2027), with a high risk of failure. Wu Xia advises newcomers to focus on surviving first before attempting to expand. Liu Qiwei points out that "Black Myth" represents a benchmark, and replicating its success is not easy.
- Cautious Investment: Most investors are more familiar with the mobile game model, and the long development cycle and information asymmetry in single-player games increase risks. Pu Guannan notes that there are not many investors genuinely interested in investing in single-player games.
V. The Next Two Years Will Be Crucial: 2027-2028 May See a Breakthrough
The industry is pinning its hopes on the next two years:
- A Batch of New Games Expected: Projects like "A Gong Jian" and "Jin Yi Wei" will be released in 2027, followed by "Gu Shen" in 2028. These games, launched after "Black Myth," could bring about a significant change in sales and revenue.
- "Shadow Blade Zero" as a Key Player: If it succeeds, it could give the industry another boost. Its high pre-order numbers indicate strong interest, but the final quality will determine its success.
- Long-Term Optimism with Patience Required: Pu Guannan compares "Black Myth" to Wang Bo among the "Four Great Poets of the Early Tang Dynasty," suggesting that more time is needed for true innovation. Creating great games takes time and effort, but there is now consensus that the domestic single-player market has potential.
In summary, "Black Myth" has transformed domestic single-player games from a niche genre to a mainstream one. However, for the industry to truly thrive, more teams need to produce high-quality games that balance creativity and practicality. After all, the essence of gaming lies in its gameplay and innovation, not just in the classification of a game as 3A.